新中国70年生产率增长:经验事实与实证分析
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摘要
作为全世界人口最多的发展中国家,新中国70年的生产率增长一直以来就是全球经济学者的关注重点。与现有文献多从新中国某些特定发展时期出发对生产率增长进行局部、阶段性研究有所不同,本文综合运用长时段跨国面板数据和省级面板数据,采用多种主流测算方法,就新中国70年生产率增长的长期趋势与阶段特征进行了较为全面的实证分析。跨国分析表明,新中国70年来,中国经济的生产率增长从"发散"趋于"收敛";政府主导型产业结构跃升、重工业优先战略对"人口红利"比较优势的违背,是造成建国初期30年生产率增速经历多次震荡、生产率相对位次不断下移的重要原因;改革开放对市场主体积极性的充分释放,则是促进资源配置优化、实现改革开放40年间生产率平稳中高速增长的重要原因。地区比较表明,中国东、中和西部生产率增长存在不同趋势,在新中国70年的大部分时段内,东部地区都是中国生产率增长的重要发动机。此外,生产率增速最快地区所呈现的东、西地区"反复交替"特征,呈现了中国生产率内生增长与技术扩散的经验规律。
As the most populous developing country in the world,70 years of productivity growth in New China has always been the focus of global economists.Different from the existing literature,starting from certain specific development periods of New China,there are different local and stage studies on productivity growth.This paper comprehensively uses long-term multinational panel data and provincial panel data,and uses a variety of mainstream calculation methods to conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis of the long-term trend and stage characteristics of 70 years of productivity growth in New China.Cross-country analysis shows that in the past 70 years,the productivity growth of China's economy has tended to"converge"from "divergence";the government-led industrial structure has jumped,and the heavy industry priority strategy has violated the comparative advantage of"demographic dividend",which is an important reason why the productivity growth rate in the early 30 years of the founding of the country has experienced multiple shocks and the relative ranking of productivity has been declining;the full release of the enthusiasm of market participants by reform and opening up is an important reason for promoting the optimization of resource allocation and achieving stable and rapid growth in productivity during the 40 years of reform and opening up.Regional comparisons show that there are different trends in productivity growth in China's eastern,central and western regions.During most of the 70 years of New China,the eastern region is an important engine of China's productivity growth.In addition,the"repeated alternation"characteristics of the eastern and western regions presented by the regions with the fastest productivity growth show the empirical rules of endogenous growth and technology diffusion in China.
As the most populous developing country in the world,70 years of productivity growth in New China has always been the focus of global economists.Different from the existing literature,starting from certain specific development periods of New China,there are different local and stage studies on productivity growth.This paper comprehensively uses long-term multinational panel data and provincial panel data,and uses a variety of mainstream calculation methods to conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis of the long-term trend and stage characteristics of 70 years of productivity growth in New China.Cross-country analysis shows that in the past 70 years,the productivity growth of China's economy has tended to"converge"from "divergence";the government-led industrial structure has jumped,and the heavy industry priority strategy has violated the comparative advantage of"demographic dividend",which is an important reason why the productivity growth rate in the early 30 years of the founding of the country has experienced multiple shocks and the relative ranking of productivity has been declining;the full release of the enthusiasm of market participants by reform and opening up is an important reason for promoting the optimization of resource allocation and achieving stable and rapid growth in productivity during the 40 years of reform and opening up.Regional comparisons show that there are different trends in productivity growth in China's eastern,central and western regions.During most of the 70 years of New China,the eastern region is an important engine of China's productivity growth.In addition,the"repeated alternation"characteristics of the eastern and western regions presented by the regions with the fastest productivity growth show the empirical rules of endogenous growth and technology diffusion in China.
引文
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(1)部分实证文献发现,采用总量生产函数进行宏观生产率测算,其得到的生产率具体计算数值往往会低估,甚至得到与实际情况相差较大的情况(Groth et al.,2006;Basu,2010;O’Mahony and Timmer,2009)。
(2)例如,大部分研究所用数据为1998-2007年中国工业企业数据库。
(1)根据世界银行的统计原则,脆弱和受冲突影响等情况下的经济体不纳入投入-产出效率计算。
(2)按照世界银行公布的数据,以2017年不变价格美元计价,人均GDP低于995美元的为低收入国家;在996~3,895美元之间的为中低等收入国家;在3,896~12,055美元之间的为中高等收入国家;大于12,055美元的为高收入国家。
(3)所谓东亚其他发展中经济体,是指剔除高收入国家与中国之外的其他发展中国家,主要包括东盟10国、蒙古、朝鲜等国家。
(4)根据国家统计局的分类标准,将北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南等11个省市划分为东部地区;将山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南等8省划分为中部地区;将四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西和内蒙古等12个省市区划分为西部地区。
(1)由于数据可获性问题,对于除中国以外的其他经济体,我们采用世界银行披露的资本形成数据作为全社会固定资产投资的代理变量。
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(1)这一时期的技术引进,主要涵盖大型炼焦、钢铁、化肥、化纤、石油化工产品成套生产设备、综合采煤设备、电站设备和一米七轧机等机器设备。
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(1)统计表明,对于新中国70年不同历史时期而言,北京、上海两个直辖市一直以来都分别是劳动生产率、全要素生产率的标杆地区,即所谓的技术前沿地区。
(1)对于新中国成立初期的1952年,东、中、西部地区的劳动生产率相对技术前沿地区的比值分别为58.6%、41.1%和28.7%。
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(1)部分实证文献发现,采用总量生产函数进行宏观生产率测算,其得到的生产率具体计算数值往往会低估,甚至得到与实际情况相差较大的情况(Groth et al.,2006;Basu,2010;O’Mahony and Timmer,2009)。
(2)例如,大部分研究所用数据为1998-2007年中国工业企业数据库。
(1)根据世界银行的统计原则,脆弱和受冲突影响等情况下的经济体不纳入投入-产出效率计算。
(2)按照世界银行公布的数据,以2017年不变价格美元计价,人均GDP低于995美元的为低收入国家;在996~3,895美元之间的为中低等收入国家;在3,896~12,055美元之间的为中高等收入国家;大于12,055美元的为高收入国家。
(3)所谓东亚其他发展中经济体,是指剔除高收入国家与中国之外的其他发展中国家,主要包括东盟10国、蒙古、朝鲜等国家。
(4)根据国家统计局的分类标准,将北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南等11个省市划分为东部地区;将山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南等8省划分为中部地区;将四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西和内蒙古等12个省市区划分为西部地区。
(1)由于数据可获性问题,对于除中国以外的其他经济体,我们采用世界银行披露的资本形成数据作为全社会固定资产投资的代理变量。
(1)《毛泽东文集》第6卷,人民出版社,1999年,第329页。
(2)《建国以来重要文献选编》第4册,中央文献出版社,1993年,第700-701页。
(3)《建国以来重要文献选编》第11册,中央文献出版社,1995年,第303-304页。
(1)武力:《中华人民共和国经济史》,中国经济出版社,1999年,第612-615页。
(1)赵德馨:《中华人民共和国经济史(1967-1984)》,河南人民出版社,1989年,第400页。
(1)这一时期的技术引进,主要涵盖大型炼焦、钢铁、化肥、化纤、石油化工产品成套生产设备、综合采煤设备、电站设备和一米七轧机等机器设备。
(1)参见《建国以来重要文献选编》第20册,中央文献出版社,2011年,第354-362页;《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展计划大事辑要(1949-1985)》,红旗出版社,1987年,第297页。
(1)统计表明,对于新中国70年不同历史时期而言,北京、上海两个直辖市一直以来都分别是劳动生产率、全要素生产率的标杆地区,即所谓的技术前沿地区。
(1)对于新中国成立初期的1952年,东、中、西部地区的劳动生产率相对技术前沿地区的比值分别为58.6%、41.1%和28.7%。