基于地震与危化品突发事件耦合影响的人员转移安置点设置
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摘要
通过对目前人员疏散转移安置点设置研究现状和问题及城镇化工园区集约发展安全隐患的分析,提出了突发事件耦合影响下人员转移安置点综合规划的必要性。首先分析了典型危化品园区内突发事件耦合的典型模式、影响特性,并基于突发事件耦合特性、影响区域提出了耦合突发事件下人员转移安置点规划的安全性、可达性、适宜性的14个关键影响因素,给出了各指标量化的标准。基于加权灰色关联法和事故影响评估方法,提出了一套安置点适宜性评估筛选、新增安置点规划的方法,给出了安置点规划的流程。利用改进的Voronoi图方法确定安置点的覆盖半径和责任服务区,进行安置点容量与责任区内核密度人口容量的对比分析,以确定安置点人口容量缺口。结合安置点可达性、安全性、适宜性进行叠加划分,确定新增安置点规划位置。最后以某区示范应用,阐述其规划应用方法和流程。以区域内安置点最大全覆盖原则,得到了在地震灾害影响下城镇人员可能受危化品泄漏威胁区域,以及区域安置点的缺口及规划方案。
The present paper is inclined to analyze the safety risks to be caused by the intensive development of the chemical industry parks in the context of urbanization and discuss the current problems on planning the transfer resettlement in case of the coupling accidents. To clarify the problem,it is first of all necessary to analyze and determine the typical coupling modes and the influential features of the earthquake and chemical incidents likely to take place unexpectedly. And,based on the coupling features and diffusion scopes to be caused by the toxical gas leakage,it is possible to illustrate 14 key factors involved in the focus for planning the residents' transfer and resettlements,which should be of the greatest significance to ensure the safety of the targets,the accessibility and suitability for human transfer and resettlement. Needless to say,the criteria to judge the transfer and resettlement quality has to satisfy the quantification of the in-dexes needed. Besides,based on the entropy weight method and the incident influential assessment,the paper would like to propose a method for judging the suitability of the resettlement and the new resettlement planning. In this connection,we would like to put forward a flow chart for the resettlement planning through calculation of the service radius of the resettlements,by which the service area of resettlements can be worked out and wellmapped with the innovated Voronoi method. In the resettlement plan,the population gap between the resettlement population capacity and the populating to be covered have to be calculated and determined based on the kernel density estimation in the service areas. And,later,the settlement planning should be determined by integrating the accessibility of the overlay settlement division and the safety and security availability. And,finally,the planning method and process should be realized through a demonstrative application in a certain area. Based on the principle of maximal covering of the would-be location,it is also necessary to expose and determine the potential threats that would be hit by the toxical gas leakage in the context of a likely earthquake. And,consequently,it is necessary to plan and settle down the site selection.
The present paper is inclined to analyze the safety risks to be caused by the intensive development of the chemical industry parks in the context of urbanization and discuss the current problems on planning the transfer resettlement in case of the coupling accidents. To clarify the problem,it is first of all necessary to analyze and determine the typical coupling modes and the influential features of the earthquake and chemical incidents likely to take place unexpectedly. And,based on the coupling features and diffusion scopes to be caused by the toxical gas leakage,it is possible to illustrate 14 key factors involved in the focus for planning the residents' transfer and resettlements,which should be of the greatest significance to ensure the safety of the targets,the accessibility and suitability for human transfer and resettlement. Needless to say,the criteria to judge the transfer and resettlement quality has to satisfy the quantification of the in-dexes needed. Besides,based on the entropy weight method and the incident influential assessment,the paper would like to propose a method for judging the suitability of the resettlement and the new resettlement planning. In this connection,we would like to put forward a flow chart for the resettlement planning through calculation of the service radius of the resettlements,by which the service area of resettlements can be worked out and wellmapped with the innovated Voronoi method. In the resettlement plan,the population gap between the resettlement population capacity and the populating to be covered have to be calculated and determined based on the kernel density estimation in the service areas. And,later,the settlement planning should be determined by integrating the accessibility of the overlay settlement division and the safety and security availability. And,finally,the planning method and process should be realized through a demonstrative application in a certain area. Based on the principle of maximal covering of the would-be location,it is also necessary to expose and determine the potential threats that would be hit by the toxical gas leakage in the context of a likely earthquake. And,consequently,it is necessary to plan and settle down the site selection.
引文
[1] ZHOU Aihua(周爱华),ZHANG Jingqiu(张景秋),FUXiao(付晓). On the spatial distribution of the urban-emergency shelter in Beijing downtown areas[J]. Journalof Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2014,14(3):151-156.
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[3] CHEN Rao(陈尧). Study on rapid assessment method fordestructive earthquake casualty(破坏性地震人员伤亡快速评估方法研究)[D]. Harbin:Institute of EngineeringMechanics,CEA,2015.
[4] LUO Hui(罗晖). Research on scheme of large-scale evac-uation in the city public emergencies(城市突发公共事件大规模人员撤离方案研究)[D]. Jiaozuo:Henan Poly-technic University,2008.
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[7] KAILIPONI P. Analyzing evacuation decisions usingmulti-attribute utility theory(MAUT)[J]. Procedia En-gineering,2010,3:163-174.
[8] JI Xiuhao(纪秀浩),KONG Debin(孔德斌). Researchon resettlement and transfer of victims in incidents[J].Digitization User(数字化用户),2013(21):947-953.
[9] ZHANG Mingshan(张名山). Dynamic emergency evacu-ation planning and simulation for the regional disaster(面向区域灾害的动态应急疏散规划及仿真)[D]. Guan-gzhou:Guangzhou University of Technology,2015.
[10] YU Wuyang(俞武扬). Model of emergency evacuationunder limited transport capacity[J]. Computer Engineer-ing and Applications(计算机工程与应用),2012,48(19):11-15.
[11] LI Yuanyuan(李媛媛),SU Guofeng(苏国峰),WENGWenguo(翁文国),et al. A review of researches onseismic casualty estimation[J]. Journal of Catastrophol-ogy(灾害学),2014,29(2):223-227.
[12] SUN Qingfeng(孙青峰). Study on sudden floods emer-gency evacuation reliability(突发水灾应急疏散可靠性问题研究)[D]. Changchun:Jilin University,2015.
[13] LAN Qiuping(蓝秋萍). The research on GIS applicationin flood-disaster people transfer scheme designer(GIS在洪水受灾人员转移方案设计中的应用研究)[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technolo-gy,2015.
[14] JIANG Chuansheng(姜传胜),DENG Yunfeng(邓云峰),XI Xuejun(席学军). Safety analysis on the evac-uation of residents around natural gas wells with high hy-drogen sulfide content[J]. China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2007,17(9):9-14.
[15] CHI Fei(迟菲),CHEN An(陈安). Coupling mecha-nism of emergency and strategies for coping with it[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2014,24(2):171-176.
[16] GB 21734—2008 Emergency shelter for earthquake disas-ters—site and its facilities(地震应急避难场所场址及配套设施)[S].
[17] SHI Xiaorui(史晓瑞). Study on the suitability evalua-tion and layout optimization of emergency shelter—a casestudy of Shijiazhuang City(应急避难场所适宜性评价与布局优化研究———以石家庄市区为例)[D]. Shiji-azhuang:Hebei Normal University,2016.
[18] ZENG Maimai(曾麦脉). Research on model and algo-rithms of the traffic evacuation planning for city emergen-cy(城市应急路网疏散规划的模型与算法研究)[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technolo-gy,2010.
[19] LUO Yonggang(罗勇刚). Research on traffic character-istics under the condition of multiple emergencies coupling(多突发事件耦合情况下交通特性研究)[D]. Wu-han:Huazhong University of Science andTechnology,2013.
[20] LIU Shiyang(刘释阳). Small and medium-sized reser-voir dam emergency shelters selection based on GIS(基于GIS的中小型水库溃坝应急避难场所选择研究)[D]. Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2013.
[2] DENG Chengbin(邓成斌). Research on spatial analysisof population data and arrangement spots in floor area(洪泛区人口数据空间分析及最优安置点选择研究)[D].Guangzhou:Sun Yat-sen University,2008.
[3] CHEN Rao(陈尧). Study on rapid assessment method fordestructive earthquake casualty(破坏性地震人员伤亡快速评估方法研究)[D]. Harbin:Institute of EngineeringMechanics,CEA,2015.
[4] LUO Hui(罗晖). Research on scheme of large-scale evac-uation in the city public emergencies(城市突发公共事件大规模人员撤离方案研究)[D]. Jiaozuo:Henan Poly-technic University,2008.
[5] FAN Qiang(范强),TIAN Zhong(田忠),LI Nan(李南),et al. Theoretical research on city settlement plan-ning issues in mountain river flood disasters[J]. ChinaRural Water and Hydropower(中国农村水利水电),2017(1):94-97.
[6] KONGSOMSAKSAKUL S,YANG C. Shelter location—allocation model for flood evacuation planning[J]. Jour-nal of the Eastern Asia of Transportation Studies,2005,6:4237-4252.
[7] KAILIPONI P. Analyzing evacuation decisions usingmulti-attribute utility theory(MAUT)[J]. Procedia En-gineering,2010,3:163-174.
[8] JI Xiuhao(纪秀浩),KONG Debin(孔德斌). Researchon resettlement and transfer of victims in incidents[J].Digitization User(数字化用户),2013(21):947-953.
[9] ZHANG Mingshan(张名山). Dynamic emergency evacu-ation planning and simulation for the regional disaster(面向区域灾害的动态应急疏散规划及仿真)[D]. Guan-gzhou:Guangzhou University of Technology,2015.
[10] YU Wuyang(俞武扬). Model of emergency evacuationunder limited transport capacity[J]. Computer Engineer-ing and Applications(计算机工程与应用),2012,48(19):11-15.
[11] LI Yuanyuan(李媛媛),SU Guofeng(苏国峰),WENGWenguo(翁文国),et al. A review of researches onseismic casualty estimation[J]. Journal of Catastrophol-ogy(灾害学),2014,29(2):223-227.
[12] SUN Qingfeng(孙青峰). Study on sudden floods emer-gency evacuation reliability(突发水灾应急疏散可靠性问题研究)[D]. Changchun:Jilin University,2015.
[13] LAN Qiuping(蓝秋萍). The research on GIS applicationin flood-disaster people transfer scheme designer(GIS在洪水受灾人员转移方案设计中的应用研究)[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technolo-gy,2015.
[14] JIANG Chuansheng(姜传胜),DENG Yunfeng(邓云峰),XI Xuejun(席学军). Safety analysis on the evac-uation of residents around natural gas wells with high hy-drogen sulfide content[J]. China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2007,17(9):9-14.
[15] CHI Fei(迟菲),CHEN An(陈安). Coupling mecha-nism of emergency and strategies for coping with it[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2014,24(2):171-176.
[16] GB 21734—2008 Emergency shelter for earthquake disas-ters—site and its facilities(地震应急避难场所场址及配套设施)[S].
[17] SHI Xiaorui(史晓瑞). Study on the suitability evalua-tion and layout optimization of emergency shelter—a casestudy of Shijiazhuang City(应急避难场所适宜性评价与布局优化研究———以石家庄市区为例)[D]. Shiji-azhuang:Hebei Normal University,2016.
[18] ZENG Maimai(曾麦脉). Research on model and algo-rithms of the traffic evacuation planning for city emergen-cy(城市应急路网疏散规划的模型与算法研究)[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technolo-gy,2010.
[19] LUO Yonggang(罗勇刚). Research on traffic character-istics under the condition of multiple emergencies coupling(多突发事件耦合情况下交通特性研究)[D]. Wu-han:Huazhong University of Science andTechnology,2013.
[20] LIU Shiyang(刘释阳). Small and medium-sized reser-voir dam emergency shelters selection based on GIS(基于GIS的中小型水库溃坝应急避难场所选择研究)[D]. Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2013.