“高房价”对中国地区间人才竞争影响的实证研究
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摘要
以中国35个大中型城市房地产市场和劳动力市场为研究对象,研究近年来各地区间"人才争夺"现象与城镇"高房价"之间的因果关系。结果发现,近十几年来中国城镇各地区房地产价格的快速上涨推高了所有经济活动的成本,使得部分劳动力不得不重新选择就业地区,甚至出现"逆城市化"现象。这也导致各地区不得不出台各种各样的人才吸引政策,从而加剧了地区间的人才竞争态势。为促进经济发展,当前各级政府的重点工作应当以稳定房价为主,同时做好包括住房、教育、医疗等民生保障工程,提供吸引和稳定劳动力流入的保障机制和环境。
Taking real estate markets and labor markets of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China as the research object,this paper studies causal relationship between inter-regional human resource competition and high house price in recent years. The result shows that: the rapid rise in real estate prices across China's cities and towns for more than 10 years has pushed up the cost of all economic activity,part of labor have to choose new areas for employment,and there is even the phenomenon of reverse urbanization. Various polices have to be put forward to attract human resources,which intensifies the competition for human resources among regions. In order to promote economic development,it is suggested that the current important work of governments at all levels should first of all focus on stabilizing house price,and at the same time further improve the livelihood of people,including housing,education,medical care and other projects,to provide a guarantee mechanism and environment to attract and stabilize labor inflow.
Taking real estate markets and labor markets of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China as the research object,this paper studies causal relationship between inter-regional human resource competition and high house price in recent years. The result shows that: the rapid rise in real estate prices across China's cities and towns for more than 10 years has pushed up the cost of all economic activity,part of labor have to choose new areas for employment,and there is even the phenomenon of reverse urbanization. Various polices have to be put forward to attract human resources,which intensifies the competition for human resources among regions. In order to promote economic development,it is suggested that the current important work of governments at all levels should first of all focus on stabilizing house price,and at the same time further improve the livelihood of people,including housing,education,medical care and other projects,to provide a guarantee mechanism and environment to attract and stabilize labor inflow.
引文
[1]CAI F.Demographic transition,demographic dividend,and Lewis turning point in China[J].Economic research journal,2010(4):4-13.
[2]辜胜阻,李华.以“用工荒”为契机推动经济转型升级[J].中国人口科学,2011(4):2-10.
[3]范晓非,王千,高铁梅.预期城乡收入差距及其对我国农村劳动力转移的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013(7):20-35.
[4]肖潇.近年来我国农民工“用工荒”的根源与对策[J].政治经济学评论,2014(3):106-116.
[5]CHEN C,ZHAO M.The undermining of rural labor out-migration by household strategies in China's migrant-sending areas:the case of Nanyang,Henan Province[J].Cities,2017,60(2):446-453.
[6]CHAN K W.A China paradox:migrant labor shortage amidst rural labor supply abundance[J].Eurasian geography and economics,2010,51(4):513-530.
[7]童玉芬,王莹莹.中国流动人口的选择:为何北上广如此受青睐---基于个体成本收益分析[J].人口研究,2015(4):49-56.
[8]饶勇.经济转型时期“用工荒”现象及其成因的经济学分析[J].中国人口科学,2012(3):66-77.
[9]牛建林.城市“用工荒”背景下流动人口的返乡决策与人力资本的关系研究[J].人口研究,2015(2):17-31.
[10]GOLLEY J,MENG X.Has China run out of surplus labor?[J].China economic review,2011,22(4):555-572.
[11]KNIGHT J,DENG Q,LI S.The puzzle of migrant labor shortage and rural labor surplus in China[J].China economic review,2011,22(4):585-600.
[12]樊纲,郑鑫.“农民工早退”与新型城镇化[J].劳动经济研究,2014(2):3-16.
[13]LIU H,CAO S,DENG J.Coexistence of surplus labor and the Lewis turning point in China:a unitary household decision-making model study[J].Journal of economic interaction and coordination,2013,8(2):249-266.
[14]LIU J,XING C.Migrate for education:an unintended effect of school district combination in rural China[J].China economic review,2016,40(9):192-206.
[15]KLINE P,MORETTI E.Local economic development,agglomeration economies,and the big push:100 years of evidence from the Tennessee valley authority[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2014,129(1):275-331.
(1)本文研究的35个大中城市为:北京、天津、石家庄、太原、呼和浩特、沈阳、大连、长春、哈尔滨、上海、南京、杭州、宁波、合肥、福州、厦门、南昌、济南、青岛、郑州、武汉、长沙、广州、深圳、南宁、海口、重庆、成都、贵阳、昆明、西安、兰州、西宁、银川、乌鲁木齐。
(1)东部地区城市:北京、天津、石家庄、沈阳、大连、上海、南京、杭州、宁波、福州、厦门、济南、青岛、广州、深圳、海口;中部地区城市太原、合肥、南昌、郑州、武汉、长沙、长春、哈尔滨;西部地区城市:呼和浩特、南宁、重庆、成都、贵阳、昆明、西安、兰州、西宁、银川、乌鲁木齐。
[2]辜胜阻,李华.以“用工荒”为契机推动经济转型升级[J].中国人口科学,2011(4):2-10.
[3]范晓非,王千,高铁梅.预期城乡收入差距及其对我国农村劳动力转移的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013(7):20-35.
[4]肖潇.近年来我国农民工“用工荒”的根源与对策[J].政治经济学评论,2014(3):106-116.
[5]CHEN C,ZHAO M.The undermining of rural labor out-migration by household strategies in China's migrant-sending areas:the case of Nanyang,Henan Province[J].Cities,2017,60(2):446-453.
[6]CHAN K W.A China paradox:migrant labor shortage amidst rural labor supply abundance[J].Eurasian geography and economics,2010,51(4):513-530.
[7]童玉芬,王莹莹.中国流动人口的选择:为何北上广如此受青睐---基于个体成本收益分析[J].人口研究,2015(4):49-56.
[8]饶勇.经济转型时期“用工荒”现象及其成因的经济学分析[J].中国人口科学,2012(3):66-77.
[9]牛建林.城市“用工荒”背景下流动人口的返乡决策与人力资本的关系研究[J].人口研究,2015(2):17-31.
[10]GOLLEY J,MENG X.Has China run out of surplus labor?[J].China economic review,2011,22(4):555-572.
[11]KNIGHT J,DENG Q,LI S.The puzzle of migrant labor shortage and rural labor surplus in China[J].China economic review,2011,22(4):585-600.
[12]樊纲,郑鑫.“农民工早退”与新型城镇化[J].劳动经济研究,2014(2):3-16.
[13]LIU H,CAO S,DENG J.Coexistence of surplus labor and the Lewis turning point in China:a unitary household decision-making model study[J].Journal of economic interaction and coordination,2013,8(2):249-266.
[14]LIU J,XING C.Migrate for education:an unintended effect of school district combination in rural China[J].China economic review,2016,40(9):192-206.
[15]KLINE P,MORETTI E.Local economic development,agglomeration economies,and the big push:100 years of evidence from the Tennessee valley authority[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2014,129(1):275-331.
(1)本文研究的35个大中城市为:北京、天津、石家庄、太原、呼和浩特、沈阳、大连、长春、哈尔滨、上海、南京、杭州、宁波、合肥、福州、厦门、南昌、济南、青岛、郑州、武汉、长沙、广州、深圳、南宁、海口、重庆、成都、贵阳、昆明、西安、兰州、西宁、银川、乌鲁木齐。
(1)东部地区城市:北京、天津、石家庄、沈阳、大连、上海、南京、杭州、宁波、福州、厦门、济南、青岛、广州、深圳、海口;中部地区城市太原、合肥、南昌、郑州、武汉、长沙、长春、哈尔滨;西部地区城市:呼和浩特、南宁、重庆、成都、贵阳、昆明、西安、兰州、西宁、银川、乌鲁木齐。