金融账户开放与三类风险的互动机制
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摘要
文章从理论和实证两方面论证人民币金融账户开放与银行体系风险、外汇市场风险、资产泡沫风险之间的互动机制。研究表明:金融账户开放水平越高,越容易加剧这三类风险;同时,这三类风险增加反过来又温和地延缓金融账户开放进程,其中外汇市场风险对于金融账户开放的延缓最明显。因此,应合理安排中国金融账户开放顺序,资产性市场应最后开放,加快汇率弹性机制改革,强化国内银行体系审慎监管。
This paper analyzes,from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,interactions between RMB financial account liberalization and three types of risks,i. e.,banking system risk,exchange market risk( EMR) and asset bubble risk( ABR). The research shows that the higher the liberalization of the financial account,the higher the three risks. On the other hand,the increase of the three risks gently slows down the liberalization of financial account. Of the three risks,EMR has the most obvious impact on the slow-down of the liberalization of financial account. Therefore,it is important that China's financial account is liberalized in an orderly manner with the opening of capital market being the last. Meanwhile,reform of exchange rate flexibility system should be hastened and prudent supervision of domestic banking system be strengthened.
This paper analyzes,from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,interactions between RMB financial account liberalization and three types of risks,i. e.,banking system risk,exchange market risk( EMR) and asset bubble risk( ABR). The research shows that the higher the liberalization of the financial account,the higher the three risks. On the other hand,the increase of the three risks gently slows down the liberalization of financial account. Of the three risks,EMR has the most obvious impact on the slow-down of the liberalization of financial account. Therefore,it is important that China's financial account is liberalized in an orderly manner with the opening of capital market being the last. Meanwhile,reform of exchange rate flexibility system should be hastened and prudent supervision of domestic banking system be strengthened.
引文
[1]Asli Demirguc-Kunt,Enrica Detragiache.Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility.The Word Bank and IMF Working Paper,No.1917,1998.
[2]Barry Eichengreen,Andrew Rose,Charles Wyplosz.Exchange Market Mayhem:The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks.Economic Policy,1995,10(21):249-312.
[3]Betty C.Daniel,John Bailey Jones.Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies.Journal of International Economics,2007,72(1):202–221.
[4]Calvo G.A.,E.G.Mendoza.Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets.Journal of International Economics,2000,51(1):79-113.
[5]Corsetti G.,P.Pesenti,N.Roubini.What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis.Japan and the World Economy,1999,11:305-373.
[6]Gerardo Esquivel,Felipe Larrain.Explaining Currency Crisis.Mimeo:Harvard Institute for International Development Working Paper,No.609,1998.
[7]Gruben W.C.,J.Koo,R.R.Moore.Financial liberalization,market discipline and bank risk.CLAE Working Paper,No.0303,2003.
[8]Jeffery Sachs,Aaron Tornell,Andres Velasco.Financial Crises in Emerging Markets:The Lessons from 1995.NBER Working Paper,No.5576,1996.
[9]Jürgen von Hagen,Tai-Kuang Ho.Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,Blackwell Publishing,2003,39(5):1037-1066.
[10]Kaminsky G.,S.Lizondo,M.Reinhart.Leading Indicators of Currency Crises.IMF Staff Papers,1998,88(2):41-48.
[11]Kaminsky G.,C.Reinhart.The twin crises the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems.American Economic Review,1999,89(2):52-59.
[12]Kraay A..In Search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization.Washington:The World Bank,1998(10):29-34.
[13]Lane P.R.,G.M.Milesi-Ferretti.The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970~2004.Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):223-250.
[14]陈创练.资本账户开放的金融风险研究新进展.金融管理研究,2014(1):55-68.
[15]陈虹,彭大为.金融动荡下针对中国银行危机和货币危机的前瞻性研究.管理世界,2009(12):39-45.
[16]杜金岷.资本项目开放中的银行危机预警研究.暨南学报,2011(4):1-8.
[17]方显仓,孙琦.资本账户开放与我国银行体系风险.世界经济研究,2014(3):9-14.
[18]胡琳琳,陈炳才.如何规避人民币资本项目可兑换的风险.国际金融,2013(6):47-50.
[19]胡援成.中国资本流动与金融稳定关系的实证研究.广东社会科学,2005(4):58-62.
[20]郎晓龙.短期资本流动与金融风险.中国外汇,2008(8):24-28.
[21]刘仁伍,刘华,黄礼健.新兴市场国家的国际资本流动与双危机模型扩展.金融研究,2008(4):17-24.
[22]李继伟.资本项目开放中的货币危机预警研究.理论研究,2010(12):24-30.
[23]宋勃,高波.国际资本流动对房地产价格的影响——基于中国的实证检验.财经问题研究,2007(3):45-53.
[24]孙立坚,刘志刚,王兆旭.资本账户开放的动态经济效应.世界经济文汇,2002(4):24-29.
[25]曾敏丽,卢骏.资本账户开放与金融不稳定的国际经验分析.国际金融,2012(9):36-43.
[26]张国兵,安烨.人民币国际化进程中的资本账户开放分析.当代经济研究,2013(3):51-55.
[27]张萍,朱江,文青,雷进贤.构建我国资本流动管理框架,应对资本账户开放风险.金融发展评论,2014(9):74-98.
[28]张铁强,李美洲,肖建国.经济开放对金融危机影响的实证研究.武汉金融,2010(11):38-43.
1选择这三种风险进行研究的依据是:我国是以银行间接金融为主导的金融体系,故必须关注银行体系风险;随着市场化改革进程加速,直接金融(资本市场交易)的重要性与日俱增;与金融账户开放最直接关联的市场是外汇市场。
1 根据东方财富网的相关数据信息,这里的房价采用的是销售价格指数,用的是同比增长率。
2 由于债券市场尤其企业债市场发展严重滞后,因而本文未将其加入资本市场风险指标中,这并不影响风险测度。
1该模型在顾颖茵(2004)研究的基础上改进而来,原模型的生产函数是二次型,笔者这里使用更一般的柯布-道格拉斯型。顾颖茵.金融账户与银行稳定的关系的探讨[D].华东师范大学,2004:24。
[2]Barry Eichengreen,Andrew Rose,Charles Wyplosz.Exchange Market Mayhem:The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks.Economic Policy,1995,10(21):249-312.
[3]Betty C.Daniel,John Bailey Jones.Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies.Journal of International Economics,2007,72(1):202–221.
[4]Calvo G.A.,E.G.Mendoza.Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets.Journal of International Economics,2000,51(1):79-113.
[5]Corsetti G.,P.Pesenti,N.Roubini.What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis.Japan and the World Economy,1999,11:305-373.
[6]Gerardo Esquivel,Felipe Larrain.Explaining Currency Crisis.Mimeo:Harvard Institute for International Development Working Paper,No.609,1998.
[7]Gruben W.C.,J.Koo,R.R.Moore.Financial liberalization,market discipline and bank risk.CLAE Working Paper,No.0303,2003.
[8]Jeffery Sachs,Aaron Tornell,Andres Velasco.Financial Crises in Emerging Markets:The Lessons from 1995.NBER Working Paper,No.5576,1996.
[9]Jürgen von Hagen,Tai-Kuang Ho.Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,Blackwell Publishing,2003,39(5):1037-1066.
[10]Kaminsky G.,S.Lizondo,M.Reinhart.Leading Indicators of Currency Crises.IMF Staff Papers,1998,88(2):41-48.
[11]Kaminsky G.,C.Reinhart.The twin crises the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems.American Economic Review,1999,89(2):52-59.
[12]Kraay A..In Search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization.Washington:The World Bank,1998(10):29-34.
[13]Lane P.R.,G.M.Milesi-Ferretti.The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970~2004.Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):223-250.
[14]陈创练.资本账户开放的金融风险研究新进展.金融管理研究,2014(1):55-68.
[15]陈虹,彭大为.金融动荡下针对中国银行危机和货币危机的前瞻性研究.管理世界,2009(12):39-45.
[16]杜金岷.资本项目开放中的银行危机预警研究.暨南学报,2011(4):1-8.
[17]方显仓,孙琦.资本账户开放与我国银行体系风险.世界经济研究,2014(3):9-14.
[18]胡琳琳,陈炳才.如何规避人民币资本项目可兑换的风险.国际金融,2013(6):47-50.
[19]胡援成.中国资本流动与金融稳定关系的实证研究.广东社会科学,2005(4):58-62.
[20]郎晓龙.短期资本流动与金融风险.中国外汇,2008(8):24-28.
[21]刘仁伍,刘华,黄礼健.新兴市场国家的国际资本流动与双危机模型扩展.金融研究,2008(4):17-24.
[22]李继伟.资本项目开放中的货币危机预警研究.理论研究,2010(12):24-30.
[23]宋勃,高波.国际资本流动对房地产价格的影响——基于中国的实证检验.财经问题研究,2007(3):45-53.
[24]孙立坚,刘志刚,王兆旭.资本账户开放的动态经济效应.世界经济文汇,2002(4):24-29.
[25]曾敏丽,卢骏.资本账户开放与金融不稳定的国际经验分析.国际金融,2012(9):36-43.
[26]张国兵,安烨.人民币国际化进程中的资本账户开放分析.当代经济研究,2013(3):51-55.
[27]张萍,朱江,文青,雷进贤.构建我国资本流动管理框架,应对资本账户开放风险.金融发展评论,2014(9):74-98.
[28]张铁强,李美洲,肖建国.经济开放对金融危机影响的实证研究.武汉金融,2010(11):38-43.
1选择这三种风险进行研究的依据是:我国是以银行间接金融为主导的金融体系,故必须关注银行体系风险;随着市场化改革进程加速,直接金融(资本市场交易)的重要性与日俱增;与金融账户开放最直接关联的市场是外汇市场。
1 根据东方财富网的相关数据信息,这里的房价采用的是销售价格指数,用的是同比增长率。
2 由于债券市场尤其企业债市场发展严重滞后,因而本文未将其加入资本市场风险指标中,这并不影响风险测度。
1该模型在顾颖茵(2004)研究的基础上改进而来,原模型的生产函数是二次型,笔者这里使用更一般的柯布-道格拉斯型。顾颖茵.金融账户与银行稳定的关系的探讨[D].华东师范大学,2004:24。