基于模糊综合评价-集值统计法的大型商场外因火灾风险性分析
|
摘要
大型商场火灾发生的原因多种多样,且易造成严重的后果和恶劣的社会影响。为了提高大型商场火灾风险性等级并且为其评价研究提供一种更加合理的评价方法,采用将2级模糊综合评价与集值统计法相结合的模型对大型商场外因火灾的风险性进行评价。根据相关法律法规并借鉴已有研究成果,充分考虑外因火灾的特点(主要从消防设施及能力因素、消防安全管理因素、人员应急疏散因素3个方面进行分析),建立针对大型商场外因火灾的评价指标体系,其中二级指标包括3个,三级指标包括12个。利用集值统计法将评价指标的描述表示为一段区间值,进而确定各评价指标的权重,并对得出的权重进行可靠性分析,采用加权平均模型确定火灾风险性总的相对隶属度,并求出模糊特征向量;最后根据总得分确定火灾的风险性等级。利用该方法对沈阳某大型商场外因火灾危险性进行了评价分析,并与传统的评价方法(层次分析法)相对比,其评价结果都为"二级(好)",表明该方法的评价结果合理。同时分析得到了大型商场火灾防控的薄弱环节,并提出了相应的有效改进措施。
The given paper is inclined to provide a more reasonable evaluation method for improving the fire risk prevention grade of large-scale shopping malls through the following 2-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and set-valued statistical method. As is known,it is easy for the fire in large-scale shopping malls to take place due to the various reasons and in turn result in serious consequences. For this purpose,we have established the evaluation index system for such shopping malls in accordance with the relevant regulations and industrial norms. What is more,we have also taken into account the characteristic features of the external fire causes,such as the factors like the fire fighting facilities and fire fighting capacity limitations,the fire safety management factors,the personnel emergency evacuation maneuval capability,etc. Among them,the secondary level inicative factors of the evaluation index system may include the 3-rd level indexes of the evaluation index system,which may consist of the related12 factors. Furthermore,if the set-valued statistics method were used to describe the evaluation index as a section of the interval value,the weight of each evaluation index should be assessed and determined with its resulting weight being analyzed from the point of view of reliability. In addition,the total relative membership of the fire risk can be determined by means of its average weight model so as to gain its fuzzy eigenvector. And,then,the fire risk level can be decided and determined in accordance with the total score. In so doing,we have managed to apply the above mentioned methods to evaluating and analyzing the external fire risks of a large-scale shopping mall in Shenyang. Besides,we have also made a comparative study by using the traditional 2 evaluation methods,that is,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the " Grade 2( good) Method," so as to gain the reliability of the evaluation results. At the same time,the weak links of the fire prevention and control in the large shopping malls can be obtained by analyzing the evaluation results and the corresponding ameliorated measures we have brought about.
The given paper is inclined to provide a more reasonable evaluation method for improving the fire risk prevention grade of large-scale shopping malls through the following 2-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and set-valued statistical method. As is known,it is easy for the fire in large-scale shopping malls to take place due to the various reasons and in turn result in serious consequences. For this purpose,we have established the evaluation index system for such shopping malls in accordance with the relevant regulations and industrial norms. What is more,we have also taken into account the characteristic features of the external fire causes,such as the factors like the fire fighting facilities and fire fighting capacity limitations,the fire safety management factors,the personnel emergency evacuation maneuval capability,etc. Among them,the secondary level inicative factors of the evaluation index system may include the 3-rd level indexes of the evaluation index system,which may consist of the related12 factors. Furthermore,if the set-valued statistics method were used to describe the evaluation index as a section of the interval value,the weight of each evaluation index should be assessed and determined with its resulting weight being analyzed from the point of view of reliability. In addition,the total relative membership of the fire risk can be determined by means of its average weight model so as to gain its fuzzy eigenvector. And,then,the fire risk level can be decided and determined in accordance with the total score. In so doing,we have managed to apply the above mentioned methods to evaluating and analyzing the external fire risks of a large-scale shopping mall in Shenyang. Besides,we have also made a comparative study by using the traditional 2 evaluation methods,that is,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the " Grade 2( good) Method," so as to gain the reliability of the evaluation results. At the same time,the weak links of the fire prevention and control in the large shopping malls can be obtained by analyzing the evaluation results and the corresponding ameliorated measures we have brought about.
引文
[1] WEI Jinsong(魏劲松),ZHAO Ping(赵平),FENGZhibin(冯志彬). Research on fire risk assessment forthe construction sites based on the set pair analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2016,16(4):62-66.
[2] CAO Xiuping(曹秀平). Study on fire risk assessment ofhigh-rise building(高层建筑火灾风险评估的研究)[D]. Shenyang:Northeastern University,2008.
[3] HAEJUN P,BRIAN J M,NICHOLAS A D. Conceptualmodel development for holistic building fire safety per-formance analysis[J]. Fire Technology,2015,51(1):173-193.
[4] WANG Minghui(王明辉). Study on fire risk assessmentof large shopping mall(大型商场火灾风险评价的研究)[D]. Shenyang:Institute of Aeronautical Engineer-ing,2007.
[5] FAN Weicheng(范维澄),SUN Jinhua(孙金华),LUShouxiang(陆守香). Fire risk assessment methodology(火灾危险性评估方法学)[M]. Beijing:SciencePress,2004.
[6] YAN Xuan(颜萱),GONG Hongwei(龚红卫),CHOUJinming(仇进明). Green building fire risk assessmentbased on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J]. BuildingScience(建筑科学),2016,32(2):118-123.
[7] JIA Jinzhang(贾进章),DONG Mingxin(董铭鑫). Firerisk probability evaluation for the grandiose shoppingmalls based on the catastrophe progression method[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2018,18(1):61-65.
[8] ZHANG Haiqiang(章海强). Fire hazard and preventionof large-scale market[J]. China Science and TechnologyInformation(中国科技信息),2005(18):64-65.
[9] LI Yu(李钰). Study on performance-based fire protectiondesign of large-scale shopping mall(大型商业建筑性能化防火设计研究)[D]. Xi’an:Xi’an University of Ar-chitecture and Technology,2005.
[10] ZHENG Shuangzhong(郑双忠),CHANG Yunyu(常蕴玉),CHEN Baozhi(陈宝智). Evaluation method of firerisk in shopping mall[J]. Journal of Northeastern Uni-versity(东北大学学报),2003,24(2):162-165.
[11] QIN Huali(秦华礼),QI Zongbiao(齐宗彪),CHENBaozhi(陈宝智). Fire risk assessment of commercial[C]//China Occupational Safety and Health Associa-tion. Proceeding of China Occupational Safety andHealth Association Annual Conference and OccupationalSafety and Health Forum(中国职业安全健康协会首届年会暨职业安全健康论坛论文集),Beijing:China CoalIndustry Publishing House,2004:368-374.
[12] HUANG Xiaomei(黄小美),LI Baizhan(李百战),PENG Shini(彭世尼). Pipeline risk assessment basedon analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation[J]. Gas and Heat(煤气与热力),2008,28(2):11-12.
[13] TONG Ruipeng(佟瑞鹏),LI Guijun(李桂君),YUChunyu(于春雨). Common safety evaluation methodsand their applications(常用安全评价方法及其应用)[M]. Beijing:China Labor and Social Security Publish-ing House,2011:192-212.
[14] YANG Jiliang(杨继亮). Analysis on fire risk and fireprevention measures in large-scale shopping center[J].China Science and Technology Information(中国科技信),2011(6):133-135.
[15] LIN Zhen(林真). Fire risk and countermeasures oflarge-scale shopping center and supermarket[J]. FireTechnique and Product Information(消防技术与产品信息),2008(5):45-47.
[16] LIN Zhen(林真). Fire hazard and countermeasures oflarge-scale shopping mall and supermarket[J]. Safetyand Health(安全与健康),2006(6):13-15.
[17] MIN Fanfei(闵凡飞),XU Junjie(许俊杰),YANG Xi-aohong(杨晓鸿). Application of multi-level fuzzy com-prehensive judgment in coal preparation process selection[J]. Journal of China Coal Society(煤炭学报),2002,27(2):201-205.
[18] LBaoliang(吕宝良). Fire risk analysis and fire pre-vention measures of large-scale shopping center[J]. FireProtection Technology and Product Information(消防技术与产品信息),2015(4):19-21.
[19] LIN Zengyong(林增勇),PAN Jipeng(潘积鹏),GENG Dandan(耿丹丹). Fire risk analysis and preven-tion of large-scale shopping center in Wuhan[J]. Indus-trial Safety and Environmental Protection(工业安全与环保),2008,34(3):22-23.
[20] HAN Li(韩利),MEI Qiang(梅强). Analysis andstudy on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J]. Chi-na Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2004,14(7):86-89.
[21] WANG Zhiliang(王志亮),WU Bing(吴兵). The appli-cation of fuzzy set valued statistics in the weight evalua-tion index of coal mine safety[J]. China Safety ScienceJournal(中国安全科学学报),2004,14(1):71-73.
[22] JIA Mingming(贾明明),XIONG Xilong(熊锡龙),HUANG Liwen(黄立文),et al. Safety evaluation modelfor the water-way navigation based on the centralized sta-tistical method-grey fuzzy[J]. Journal of Safety and Envi-ronment(安全与环境学报),2017,17(1):41-45.
[23] DING Yunchun(丁元春),WENG Falu(翁发禄),TANG Minkang(唐敏康). The research on catastrophetheory’s application in the frie risk assessment of high-rise buildings[J]. Building Science(建筑科学),2012,28(1):22-25.
[2] CAO Xiuping(曹秀平). Study on fire risk assessment ofhigh-rise building(高层建筑火灾风险评估的研究)[D]. Shenyang:Northeastern University,2008.
[3] HAEJUN P,BRIAN J M,NICHOLAS A D. Conceptualmodel development for holistic building fire safety per-formance analysis[J]. Fire Technology,2015,51(1):173-193.
[4] WANG Minghui(王明辉). Study on fire risk assessmentof large shopping mall(大型商场火灾风险评价的研究)[D]. Shenyang:Institute of Aeronautical Engineer-ing,2007.
[5] FAN Weicheng(范维澄),SUN Jinhua(孙金华),LUShouxiang(陆守香). Fire risk assessment methodology(火灾危险性评估方法学)[M]. Beijing:SciencePress,2004.
[6] YAN Xuan(颜萱),GONG Hongwei(龚红卫),CHOUJinming(仇进明). Green building fire risk assessmentbased on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J]. BuildingScience(建筑科学),2016,32(2):118-123.
[7] JIA Jinzhang(贾进章),DONG Mingxin(董铭鑫). Firerisk probability evaluation for the grandiose shoppingmalls based on the catastrophe progression method[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2018,18(1):61-65.
[8] ZHANG Haiqiang(章海强). Fire hazard and preventionof large-scale market[J]. China Science and TechnologyInformation(中国科技信息),2005(18):64-65.
[9] LI Yu(李钰). Study on performance-based fire protectiondesign of large-scale shopping mall(大型商业建筑性能化防火设计研究)[D]. Xi’an:Xi’an University of Ar-chitecture and Technology,2005.
[10] ZHENG Shuangzhong(郑双忠),CHANG Yunyu(常蕴玉),CHEN Baozhi(陈宝智). Evaluation method of firerisk in shopping mall[J]. Journal of Northeastern Uni-versity(东北大学学报),2003,24(2):162-165.
[11] QIN Huali(秦华礼),QI Zongbiao(齐宗彪),CHENBaozhi(陈宝智). Fire risk assessment of commercial[C]//China Occupational Safety and Health Associa-tion. Proceeding of China Occupational Safety andHealth Association Annual Conference and OccupationalSafety and Health Forum(中国职业安全健康协会首届年会暨职业安全健康论坛论文集),Beijing:China CoalIndustry Publishing House,2004:368-374.
[12] HUANG Xiaomei(黄小美),LI Baizhan(李百战),PENG Shini(彭世尼). Pipeline risk assessment basedon analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation[J]. Gas and Heat(煤气与热力),2008,28(2):11-12.
[13] TONG Ruipeng(佟瑞鹏),LI Guijun(李桂君),YUChunyu(于春雨). Common safety evaluation methodsand their applications(常用安全评价方法及其应用)[M]. Beijing:China Labor and Social Security Publish-ing House,2011:192-212.
[14] YANG Jiliang(杨继亮). Analysis on fire risk and fireprevention measures in large-scale shopping center[J].China Science and Technology Information(中国科技信),2011(6):133-135.
[15] LIN Zhen(林真). Fire risk and countermeasures oflarge-scale shopping center and supermarket[J]. FireTechnique and Product Information(消防技术与产品信息),2008(5):45-47.
[16] LIN Zhen(林真). Fire hazard and countermeasures oflarge-scale shopping mall and supermarket[J]. Safetyand Health(安全与健康),2006(6):13-15.
[17] MIN Fanfei(闵凡飞),XU Junjie(许俊杰),YANG Xi-aohong(杨晓鸿). Application of multi-level fuzzy com-prehensive judgment in coal preparation process selection[J]. Journal of China Coal Society(煤炭学报),2002,27(2):201-205.
[18] LBaoliang(吕宝良). Fire risk analysis and fire pre-vention measures of large-scale shopping center[J]. FireProtection Technology and Product Information(消防技术与产品信息),2015(4):19-21.
[19] LIN Zengyong(林增勇),PAN Jipeng(潘积鹏),GENG Dandan(耿丹丹). Fire risk analysis and preven-tion of large-scale shopping center in Wuhan[J]. Indus-trial Safety and Environmental Protection(工业安全与环保),2008,34(3):22-23.
[20] HAN Li(韩利),MEI Qiang(梅强). Analysis andstudy on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J]. Chi-na Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2004,14(7):86-89.
[21] WANG Zhiliang(王志亮),WU Bing(吴兵). The appli-cation of fuzzy set valued statistics in the weight evalua-tion index of coal mine safety[J]. China Safety ScienceJournal(中国安全科学学报),2004,14(1):71-73.
[22] JIA Mingming(贾明明),XIONG Xilong(熊锡龙),HUANG Liwen(黄立文),et al. Safety evaluation modelfor the water-way navigation based on the centralized sta-tistical method-grey fuzzy[J]. Journal of Safety and Envi-ronment(安全与环境学报),2017,17(1):41-45.
[23] DING Yunchun(丁元春),WENG Falu(翁发禄),TANG Minkang(唐敏康). The research on catastrophetheory’s application in the frie risk assessment of high-rise buildings[J]. Building Science(建筑科学),2012,28(1):22-25.