中国橡胶树主产区产胶能力分布特征研究
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摘要
为准确掌握中国橡胶种植区橡胶产胶能力的差异,基于2000-2015年MODIS NPP数据,通过橡胶产胶能力模型得到了橡胶主产区全年橡胶产胶能力,并结合影响橡胶产量的气象灾害(风害、寒害)、气候适宜性等因子,分析了其产生差异的原因。结果表明,中国橡胶主产区云南、海南、广东的橡胶产胶能力在空间上存在明显差异,其中云南橡胶的年平均产胶能力最高,海南次之,广东最低;橡胶产胶能力多年平均值为云南124.59×10~4 g·hm~(-2),海南93.28×10~4 g·hm~(-2),广东63.07×10~4 g·hm~(-2)。从时间看,整个橡胶主产区橡胶产胶能力在波动中呈增加趋势,增加趋势不显著;分区域看,海南和广东年产胶能力线性增长率分别为0.24×10~4、0.3×10~4 g·hm~(-2),而云南年产胶能力有微弱下降趋势,年线性减少率为0.07×10~4 g·hm~(-2)。气候差异以及风害、寒害等的影响是导致橡胶产胶能力分布产生差异的主因,其中海南橡胶种植区的产胶能力变化受风害影响为主;广东橡胶种植区的产胶能力受风害和寒害共同影响,同时气候适宜性也限制其种植范围的北扩;云南橡胶种植区的产胶能力受寒害影响,气候适宜性限制橡胶种植区域的范围。该研究结果对橡胶生产决策服务具有一定的指导意义。
In order to accurately get the differences of rubber potential productivity in main rubber plantation areas in China,the annual rubber potential productivity were calculated based on 2000-2015 MODIS NPP data.The wind disaster,chilling injury,climate suitability factors were used to analyze the impacts to rubber productivity.The results showed that rubber potential productivity in Yunnan,Hainan,Guangdong was obviously different,highest in Yunnan,followed by Hainan,and lowest in Guangdong.The mean rubber tree potential productivity was 124.59×10~4 g·hm~(-2) in Yunnan,93.28×10~4 g·hm~(-2) in Hainan,63.07×10~4 g·hm~(-2) in Guangdong during 2000-2015.The rubber potential productivity was in volatility and increasing,but the increasing trend was not significant.The linear growth rates of the annual rubber potential productivity in Hainan and Guangdong were 0.24×10~4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),0.3×10~4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),while it was 0.07×10~4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1) in Yunnan.Differences of rubber potential productivity in different areas were resulted from wind disaster,chilling injury and climate suitability factors.Variation of rubber potential productivity in Hainan was mainly affected by wind damage.In Guangdong,by wind and chilling inju-ry,while climate suitability also limited the scope of cultivation.In Yunnan,which was mainly affected chilling injury,and climate suitability restricted potential rubber plantation area.The results could provide the decision-makers for rubber production in China.
In order to accurately get the differences of rubber potential productivity in main rubber plantation areas in China,the annual rubber potential productivity were calculated based on 2000-2015 MODIS NPP data.The wind disaster,chilling injury,climate suitability factors were used to analyze the impacts to rubber productivity.The results showed that rubber potential productivity in Yunnan,Hainan,Guangdong was obviously different,highest in Yunnan,followed by Hainan,and lowest in Guangdong.The mean rubber tree potential productivity was 124.59×10~4 g·hm~(-2) in Yunnan,93.28×10~4 g·hm~(-2) in Hainan,63.07×10~4 g·hm~(-2) in Guangdong during 2000-2015.The rubber potential productivity was in volatility and increasing,but the increasing trend was not significant.The linear growth rates of the annual rubber potential productivity in Hainan and Guangdong were 0.24×10~4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),0.3×10~4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),while it was 0.07×10~4 g·hm~(-2)·a~(-1) in Yunnan.Differences of rubber potential productivity in different areas were resulted from wind disaster,chilling injury and climate suitability factors.Variation of rubber potential productivity in Hainan was mainly affected by wind damage.In Guangdong,by wind and chilling inju-ry,while climate suitability also limited the scope of cultivation.In Yunnan,which was mainly affected chilling injury,and climate suitability restricted potential rubber plantation area.The results could provide the decision-makers for rubber production in China.
引文
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[2]任建强,陈仲新,唐华俊.基于MODIS-NDVI的区域冬小麦遥感估产——以山东省济宁市为例[J].应用生态学报,2006,17(12):2371-2375.REN J Q,CHEN Z X,ANG H J.Regional scale remote sensing-based yield estimation of winter wheat by using MODISNDVI data:a case study of Jining City in Shandong Province[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2006,17(12):2371-2375.(in Chinese)
[3]高素华.用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预报橡胶产量[J].热带作物学报,1987,8(1):71-76.GAO S H.Prediction of rubber yield by grey system GM(1,1)model[J].Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops,1987,8(1):71-76.(in Chinese)
[4]吴春太,马征宇,刘汉文,等.橡胶RRIM600的产量与产量构成因素的通径分析[J].湖南农业大学学报:自然科学版,2014,40(5):476-480.WU C T,MA Z Y,LIU H W,et al.Path coefficient analysis between yield components and yield of RRIM600of Hevea brasiliensis[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University:Natural Sciences,2014,40(5):476-480.(in Chinese)
[5]冯耀飞,张慧艳.橡胶产量与气象因子的灰色关联性及逐步回归分析研究[J].热带农业科学,2016,36(11):57-60.FENG Y F,ZHANG H Y.The gray relevancy analysis and the stepwise regression analysis between latex yield and meteorological factors[J].Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture,2016,36(11):57-60.(in Chinese)
[6]郭玉清,张汝.气象条件与橡胶树产胶量的关系[J].云南热作科技,1980,26(1):11-22.GUO Y Q,ZHANG R.Relationship between meteorological factors and yield of rubber tree[J].Journal of Yunnan Tropical Crops Science&Technology,1980,26(1):11-22.(in Chinese)
[7]张利才,洪群艳,李志.西双版纳基于气象因子的橡胶产量预报模型[J].热带农业科技,2016,39(3):9-13.ZHANG L C,HONG Q Y,LI Z.Forecasting model for seasonal rubber tree yield based on meteorological parameters in Xishuangbanna[J].Tropical Agricultural Science&Technology,2016,39(3):9-13.(in Chinese)
[8]苏文地,张培松,罗微.时间序列分析在儋州橡胶产量预测上的运用[J].热带农业科学,2011,31(2):1-4.SU W D,ZHANG P S,LUO W.Application of time-series analysis to predict rubber production in Danzhou[J].Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture,2011,31(2):1-4.(in Chinese)
[9]刘文杰,李红梅,段文平.西双版纳橡胶产量的模糊综合评判预报[J].林业科技,1997,22(5):61-63.LIU W J,LI H M,DUAN W P.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for forecasting rubber yield in Xishuangbanna[J].Forestry Science&Technology,1997,22(5):61-63.(in Chinese)
[10]李海亮,罗微,李世池,等.基于遥感信息和净初级生产力的天然橡胶估产模型[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(9):1610-1621.LI H L,LUO W,LI S C,et.al.Estimation model of natural rubber yield based on net primary production and remote sensing[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(9):1610-1621.(in Chinese)
[11]吴珊珊,姚治君,姜丽光,等.基于MODIS的长江源植被NPP时空变化特征及其水文效应[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(1):39-50.WU S S,YAO Z J,JIANG L G,et al.The spatial-temporal variations and hydrological effects of vegetation npp based on modis in the source region of the Yangtze River[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(1):39-50.(in Chinese)
[12]郑文荣.我国天然橡胶发展情况和产胶趋势[EB/OL].[2014-6-30]http://www.docin.com/p-245944869.html.
[13]朱文泉,潘耀忠,何浩,等.中国典型植被最大光利用率模拟[J].科学通报,2006,51(6):700-706.ZHU W Q,PAN Y Z,HE H,et al.Simulation of the maximum light utilization efficiency of typical vegetation in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(6):700-706.(in Chinese)
[14]刘少军,张京红,车秀芬,等.基于MODIS遥感数据的海南岛橡胶林碳密度空间分布研究[J].热带作物学报,2014,35(1):183-187.LIU S J,ZHANG J H,CHE X F,et al.Spatial distribution of carbon sink density of rubber plant based on MODIS[J].Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops,2014,35(1):183-187.(in Chinese)
[15]李海亮,罗微,李世池,等.基于净初级生产力的海南天然橡胶产胶潜力研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(2):337-344.LI H L,LUO W,LI S C,et al.A study on potential productivity of natural rubber in Hainan Province based on a net primary production model[J].Resources Science,2012,34(2):337-344.(in Chinese)
[16]刘绍凯,许能锐.寒害对海南西庆农场橡胶林的影响与防害措施[J].林业科学,2008,44(11):161-163.LIU S K,XU N R.Influence of the cold stress on rubber plantation at Xiqing state farm in Hainan[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2008,44(11):161-163.(in Chinese)
[17]刘世红,田耀华.橡胶树抗寒性研究现状与展望[J].广东农业科学,2009,35(11):26-28.LIU S H,TIAN Y H.Research status and prospect of cold resistance of rubber tree[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2009,35(11):26-28.(in Chinese)
[18]邱志荣,刘霞,王光琼,等.海南岛天然橡胶寒害空间分布特征研究[J].热带农业科学,2013,33(11):67-69.QIU Z R,LIU X,WANG G Q,et al.Spatial distribution character of chilling damage to rubber trees in Hainan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture,2013,33(11):67-69.(in Chinese)
[19]中国气象局.中华人民共和国气象行业标准橡胶寒害等级:QX/T169-2012[S].北京:气象出版社,2013.
[20]刘少军,周广胜,房世波.1961—2010年中国橡胶寒害的时空分布特征[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(5):1282-1288.LIU S J,ZHOU G S,FANG S B.Spatial-temporal characteristics of rubber chilling injury in China during 1961-2010[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2015,34(5):1282-1288.(in Chinese)
[21]张京红,刘少军,蔡大鑫.基于GIS的海南岛橡胶林风害评估技术及应用[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):175-181.ZHANG J H,LIU S J,CAI D X.GIS-based wind disaster assessment technology of rubber forest in Hainan island and its application[J].Journal of Natural Disastes,2013,22(4):175-181.(in Chinese)
[22]刘少军,周广胜,房世波.中国橡胶树种植气候适宜性区划[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(12):2335-2345.LIU S J,ZHOU G S,FANG S B.Climatic suitability regionalization of rubber plantation in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2015,48(12):2335-2345.(in Chinese)
[23]刘少军,周广胜,房世波.中国橡胶种植北界研究[J].生态学报,2016,36(5):1272-1280.LIU S J,ZHOU G S,FANG S B.A preliminary study of the northern planting boundary of rubber tree cultivation in China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(5):1272-1280.(in Chinese)
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