中国粮食交易价格指数差异的统计测度研究
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摘要
粮食价格机制不仅反映了粮食价格变动的特征,而且对保证粮食供给具有重要作用。在编制6种重要粮食品种交易价格指数的基础上,提出一种标准化非参数方法——极值法,用以测度交易价格指数差异;利用非参数Wilcoxon符号秩检验对两周期间的交易价格指数差异性进行验证分析,并利用权重方差分解法对品种间与品种内的差异进行研究。结果表明:我国粮食品种的交易价格指数存在显著差异性,品种间差异和品种内差异对总差异的影响程度基本持平。
The grain price system not only reflects the characteristics of grain price fluctuation, but also plays an important role in ensuring grain supply. Based on drawing up transaction price index of six important grain commodity, this thesis proposes a standardized non-parametric method, i.e. extremum method,to measure the differences of transaction price index. At the same time, it verifies the differences of the transaction price index within two weeks by virtue of the non-parametric Wilcoxon signed rank test, and studies the differences between inter-species and intra-species by using the weight variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a significant difference in the transaction price index of China's grain varieties, and the impact of inter-species differences on the overall difference is basically the same with that of intra-species differences.
The grain price system not only reflects the characteristics of grain price fluctuation, but also plays an important role in ensuring grain supply. Based on drawing up transaction price index of six important grain commodity, this thesis proposes a standardized non-parametric method, i.e. extremum method,to measure the differences of transaction price index. At the same time, it verifies the differences of the transaction price index within two weeks by virtue of the non-parametric Wilcoxon signed rank test, and studies the differences between inter-species and intra-species by using the weight variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a significant difference in the transaction price index of China's grain varieties, and the impact of inter-species differences on the overall difference is basically the same with that of intra-species differences.
引文
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[2]王朋吾.基于RARCH(1,1)模型的粮食市场价格波动溢出效应比较[J].统计与决策,2017(16):138-140.
[3]付莲莲,朱红根.基于GED-GARCH模型的中国粮食价格波动特征研究[J].统计与决策,2016(1):132-135.
[4]党红旗,闫强强.基于多元回归的粮食价格影响因素分析[J].农村经济与科技,2017(28):132.
[5]甘涛.基于组合预测模型的粮食价格模拟仿真比较[J].统计与决策,2016(10):85.
[6]赵吉欢,杨桂元,韩孟君.基于IGOWLA算子的中国粮食生产价格预测研究[J].怀化学院学报,2017(4):31-36.
[7]陶霜等.基于HP滤波法的粮食市场价和最低收购价关系研究[J].国际会议,2017(4):319-323.
[8]喻胜华,龚尚花.基于Lasso和支持向量机的粮食价格预测[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2016(1):71-75.
[9]郭婷婷.基于PCA-ELM的我国粮食价格预测研究[D].太原:太原理工大学硕士学位论文,2016.
[10]王少芬,赵昕东.基于SVAR模型的国际粮食价格波动成因分解研究[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016(1):27-32.
[11]王朗,何蒲明.国内外粮食价差对农民收入的影响研究---以稻谷为例[J].价格月刊,2018(2):23-25.
[12]马敬贵,黄普.粮食产量、价格对CPI的冲击效应及地区差异分析[J].农业技术经济,2013(6):113-120.
[13]杨志海,王雨濛,张勇民.粮食价格与石油价格的短期动态关系与长期均衡---基于ARDL-ECM模型的实证研究[J].农村技术经济,2012(10):31-39.
[14]周洲.我国粮食价格波动与物价水平关系的实证分析[J].湖南财政经济学院学报,2018(5):23-30.
[15]魏君英,何蒲明.我国粮食价格与粮食生产成本关系的实证研究[J].价格月刊,2018(6):17-21.
[16]郑燕,马骥.国际原油价格对中国粮食价格的动态冲击效应分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(2):94-100.
[17]李光泗,曹宝明,马学琳.中国粮食市场开放与国际粮食价格波动---基于粮食价格波动溢出效应的分析[J].中国农村经济,2015(8):44-51.
[18]王长春.粮食目标价格制定的影响因素及对策分析[J].时代金融,2018(7):305.
[19]Arosikha Das,Ansar Khan.Regional model for agricultural imbalances in West Bengal,India[J].Springer,2016(3):5-24.
[20]Shorrocks,A.F.The Class of Additively Decomposable Inequality Measures[J].Econometrica,1980(3):613.
[21]Shorrocks,A.F.Inequality Decomposition by Factor Components[J].Econometrica,1982(1):193.