基于QAR超限事件的民航飞行安全风险评价方法
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摘要
针对中国民航飞行安全,提出一种基于快速数据存取记录器(QAR)超限事件的民航飞行安全风险评价方法。根据风险源事件的风险贡献度大小对中国民航飞行安全隐患进行分类,依据QAR超限事件构建中国民航飞行安全隐患风险评价指标体系,并结合中国民航飞行品质监控标准的风险阈值,分别建立了基于离散型超限事件和连续型超限事件的飞行安全风险评价模型。应用该方法以中国民航2017年航班运行实际QAR数据为例,对2017年飞行安全风险进行计算评价,结果与2017年中国民航航空安全报告的安全风险分析结论基本一致,验证了基于QAR超限事件的民航飞行安全风险评价方法的合理性和实用性。
In order to study the flight risk of civil aviation in China, a risk assessment method of flight security hazard of China civil aviation based on QAR over-limit events is proposed. The potential security hazard of China civil aviation is classified by the risk contribution degrees of risk factors firstly, then a risk assessment index system of potential security risk is constructed on the basis of events which exceed the limits of flight operations quality assurance. Combined with the risk control standards of China civil aviation industry(risk threshold), risk assessment models are established for discrete and continuous over-limit events respectively. By using the actual operational QAR data of Civil Aviation Administration of China(CAAC) in 2017 and the proposed method, a risk assessment of direct security hazard of China civil aviation is carried out, and the results are in agreement with the safety risk analysis conclusion of the Civil Aviation Safety Report of China, thus verifying the rationality of the proposed index system and models.
In order to study the flight risk of civil aviation in China, a risk assessment method of flight security hazard of China civil aviation based on QAR over-limit events is proposed. The potential security hazard of China civil aviation is classified by the risk contribution degrees of risk factors firstly, then a risk assessment index system of potential security risk is constructed on the basis of events which exceed the limits of flight operations quality assurance. Combined with the risk control standards of China civil aviation industry(risk threshold), risk assessment models are established for discrete and continuous over-limit events respectively. By using the actual operational QAR data of Civil Aviation Administration of China(CAAC) in 2017 and the proposed method, a risk assessment of direct security hazard of China civil aviation is carried out, and the results are in agreement with the safety risk analysis conclusion of the Civil Aviation Safety Report of China, thus verifying the rationality of the proposed index system and models.
引文
[1]中国民用航空局航空安全办公室.2017年中国民航航空安全报告[R/OL].北京:中国民用航空局,2018.http://safety.caac.gov.cn/index/download.act?checkSum=2017.pdf.Aviation Safety Office of China Civil Aviation Administration.China civil aviation safety report 2017[R/OL].Beijing:Civil Aviation Administration of China,2018.http://safety.caac.gov.cn/index/download.act?checkSum=2017.pdf.
[2]杜红兵,王雪莉.基于贝叶斯网络的可控飞行撞地事故原因分析方法[J].安全与环境学报,2009,9(5):136-139.Du Hongbing,Wang Xueli.Cause analysis of the controlled flight bumping into terrain based on the Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2009,9(5):136-139.
[3]汪磊,孙瑞山,吴昌旭,等.基于飞行QAR数据的重着陆风险定量评价模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(2):88-92.Wang Lei,Sun Ruishan,Wu Changxu,et al.A flight QARdata based model for hard landing risk quantitative evaluation[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(2):88-92.
[4]王天明.基于QAR数据的飞行安全模型研究[D].天津:中国民航大学,2008.Wang Tianming.Research of flight safety model based on QAR[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2008.
[5]唐卫贞.基于物元模型的航空公司飞行安全风险综合评价[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(2):25-29.Tang Weizhen.Comprehensive evaluation for the airline flight safety risk based on the matter-elements model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(2):25-29.
[6]张思远.基于QAR数据分析的飞行安全风险预测方法研究[D].天津:中国民航大学,2015.Zhang Siyuan.Research on flight operation risk based on quick access recorder data[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2015.
[7]陈芳,孙亚腾,范丹红,等.飞行安全技术评价指标体系实证研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(9):146-151.Chen Fang,Sun Yateng,Fan Danhong,et al.Empirical study on evaluation index system of flight safety skill[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(9):146-151.
[8]陈可嘉,金炼.航空公司飞行安全灰色区间层次评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(8):146-151.Chen Kejia,Jin Lian.Grey interval hierarchy evaluation of airline flight safety performance[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(8):146-151.
[9]祁明亮,邵雪焱,池宏.QAR超限事件飞行操作风险诊断方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2011,37(10):1207-1210.Qi Mingliang,Shao Xueyan,Chi Hong.Flight operations risk diagnosis method on QAR exceedance[J].Journal of Beijing university of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2011,37(10):1207-1210.
[10]孙瑞山,杨绎煊,汪磊.QAR数据在飞行安全评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(7):87-92.Sun Ruishan,Yang Yixuan,Wang Lei.Study on flight safety evaluation based on QAR data[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(7):87-92.
[11]杨绎煊.基于QAR数据的航班运行安全风险研究[D].天津:中国民航大学,2016.Yang Yixuan.Research on flight operation risk based on quick access recorder data[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2016.
[12]郑磊,池宏,邵雪焱.基于QAR数据的飞行操作模式及其风险分析[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(10):109-118.Zheng Lei,Chi Hong,Shao Xueyan.Pattern recognition and risk analysis for flight operations[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(10):109-118.
[13]Tamasi G,Demichela M.Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2011,96(8):892-899.
[14]Sembiring J,Drees L,Holzapfel F.Extracting unmeasured parameters based on quick access recorder data using parameter-estimation method[C/OL]//AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics(AFM)Conference.2013.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268470618_Extracting_Unmeasured_Parameters_Based_on_Quick_Access_Recorder_Data_Using_Parameter-Estimation_Method.
[15]Greenberg R,Cook S C,Harris D.A civil aviation safety assessment model using a Bayesian belief network(BBN)[J].Aeronautical Journal,2016,109(1101):557-568.
[16]International Civil Aviation Organization.Safety management manual(DOC9859)[R/OL].Montreal:International Civil Aviation Organization,2009.https://www.afeonline.com/shop/icaodoc-9859.html.
[2]杜红兵,王雪莉.基于贝叶斯网络的可控飞行撞地事故原因分析方法[J].安全与环境学报,2009,9(5):136-139.Du Hongbing,Wang Xueli.Cause analysis of the controlled flight bumping into terrain based on the Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2009,9(5):136-139.
[3]汪磊,孙瑞山,吴昌旭,等.基于飞行QAR数据的重着陆风险定量评价模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(2):88-92.Wang Lei,Sun Ruishan,Wu Changxu,et al.A flight QARdata based model for hard landing risk quantitative evaluation[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(2):88-92.
[4]王天明.基于QAR数据的飞行安全模型研究[D].天津:中国民航大学,2008.Wang Tianming.Research of flight safety model based on QAR[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2008.
[5]唐卫贞.基于物元模型的航空公司飞行安全风险综合评价[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(2):25-29.Tang Weizhen.Comprehensive evaluation for the airline flight safety risk based on the matter-elements model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(2):25-29.
[6]张思远.基于QAR数据分析的飞行安全风险预测方法研究[D].天津:中国民航大学,2015.Zhang Siyuan.Research on flight operation risk based on quick access recorder data[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2015.
[7]陈芳,孙亚腾,范丹红,等.飞行安全技术评价指标体系实证研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(9):146-151.Chen Fang,Sun Yateng,Fan Danhong,et al.Empirical study on evaluation index system of flight safety skill[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(9):146-151.
[8]陈可嘉,金炼.航空公司飞行安全灰色区间层次评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(8):146-151.Chen Kejia,Jin Lian.Grey interval hierarchy evaluation of airline flight safety performance[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(8):146-151.
[9]祁明亮,邵雪焱,池宏.QAR超限事件飞行操作风险诊断方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2011,37(10):1207-1210.Qi Mingliang,Shao Xueyan,Chi Hong.Flight operations risk diagnosis method on QAR exceedance[J].Journal of Beijing university of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2011,37(10):1207-1210.
[10]孙瑞山,杨绎煊,汪磊.QAR数据在飞行安全评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(7):87-92.Sun Ruishan,Yang Yixuan,Wang Lei.Study on flight safety evaluation based on QAR data[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(7):87-92.
[11]杨绎煊.基于QAR数据的航班运行安全风险研究[D].天津:中国民航大学,2016.Yang Yixuan.Research on flight operation risk based on quick access recorder data[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2016.
[12]郑磊,池宏,邵雪焱.基于QAR数据的飞行操作模式及其风险分析[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(10):109-118.Zheng Lei,Chi Hong,Shao Xueyan.Pattern recognition and risk analysis for flight operations[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(10):109-118.
[13]Tamasi G,Demichela M.Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2011,96(8):892-899.
[14]Sembiring J,Drees L,Holzapfel F.Extracting unmeasured parameters based on quick access recorder data using parameter-estimation method[C/OL]//AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics(AFM)Conference.2013.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268470618_Extracting_Unmeasured_Parameters_Based_on_Quick_Access_Recorder_Data_Using_Parameter-Estimation_Method.
[15]Greenberg R,Cook S C,Harris D.A civil aviation safety assessment model using a Bayesian belief network(BBN)[J].Aeronautical Journal,2016,109(1101):557-568.
[16]International Civil Aviation Organization.Safety management manual(DOC9859)[R/OL].Montreal:International Civil Aviation Organization,2009.https://www.afeonline.com/shop/icaodoc-9859.html.