基于深度学习的配电网投入产出相关性分析
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摘要
针对目前配电网投入产出评价指标体系中投入产出指标对应关系复杂、项目投资效益偏低的问题,提出一种基于深度学习的配电网投入产出指标间相关性分析方法。以项目属性投资作为投入指标,综合考虑电网的供电可靠性、网架结构、运行效率和经济效益,建立配电网投入产出评价指标体系;基于深度置信网络建立投入产出相关性分析模型,利用配电网历史数据进行网络的学习和训练,通过灵敏度分析方法挖掘投入产出的内在联系。以山东省电力公司10kV及以下配电网为例,分析投入指标变化对不同产出指标的影响;通过对比产出指标的实际值和预测值,验证所提方法的有效性。结果表明项目属性投资对不同产出指标具有不同程度的改善作用,可为配电网投资的科学合理分配提供借鉴和指导。
Aiming at the problems,such as the complexity relationship between input and output index and low efficiency of investment in distribution network,a quantitative analysis method for correlation calculation between input and output index is proposed. Taking the project investment as the input index,comprehensively considering the power supply reliability, grid structure, operation efficiency and economic benefit of the grid, the input and output evaluation index system of the distribution network is set up. The input-output correlation analysis model is formulated based on the deep confidence network, which is trained by network's historical data.Taking the distribution network of 10 kV and below in Shandong Electric Power Company as an example, the impact of input index changes on different output indicators is analyzed. The effectiveness of this method is verified by comparing the actual and predicted values of output indicators. The results show that the project attribute investment has different degrees of improvement on different output indicators, which can provide reference and guidance for the scientific and rational distribution of distribution network investment.
Aiming at the problems,such as the complexity relationship between input and output index and low efficiency of investment in distribution network,a quantitative analysis method for correlation calculation between input and output index is proposed. Taking the project investment as the input index,comprehensively considering the power supply reliability, grid structure, operation efficiency and economic benefit of the grid, the input and output evaluation index system of the distribution network is set up. The input-output correlation analysis model is formulated based on the deep confidence network, which is trained by network's historical data.Taking the distribution network of 10 kV and below in Shandong Electric Power Company as an example, the impact of input index changes on different output indicators is analyzed. The effectiveness of this method is verified by comparing the actual and predicted values of output indicators. The results show that the project attribute investment has different degrees of improvement on different output indicators, which can provide reference and guidance for the scientific and rational distribution of distribution network investment.
引文
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[16]吴争,崔文婷,龙禹,等.配电网投资效果后评价及投资合理性分析[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2016,28(12):96-102.WU Zheng, CUI Wenting, LONG Yu, et al. Postevaluation and rationality analysis of distribution network investment[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2016,28(12):96-102.
[17]郭新菊,邵永刚,李旭阳,等.基于BP神经网络的配电网工程造价预测模型建立与应用[J].电子设计工程,2017,25(23):63-68.GUO Xinju, SHAG Yonggang, LI Xuyang, et al.Establishment and application of cost prediction model for distribution network project based on BP neural network[J].Electronic Design Engineering,2017,25(23):63-68.
[2]王超,徐政,高鹏,等.大电网可靠性评估的指标体系探讨[J].电力系统及其自动化,2007,19(01):42-48.WANG Chao, XU Zheng, GAO Peng, et al. Reliability index framework for reliability evaluation of bulk power system[J]. Proceedings of the Electric Power System and Automation,2007,19(01):42-48.
[3]羌丁建,寿挺,朱铁铭,等.高压配电网规划评价指标体系与综合评价模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(21):52-57.QIANG Dingjian,SHOU Ting,ZHU Tieming, et al. An evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation model on high-voltage distribution network planning[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(21):52-57.
[4]莫一夫,张勇军.基于变权灰关联的智能配电网用电可靠性提升对象优选[J].电力系统保护与控制,2019,47(5):26-34.MO Yifu, ZHANG Yongjun. Optimal object selection of power utilization reliability promotion for smart distribution grid based on weighted grey correlation[J].Power System Protection and Control,2019,47(5):26-34.
[5] CHOUDHARY D,SHANKAR R.An STEEP-fuzzy AHPTOPSIS framework for evaluation and selection of thermal power plant location:a case study from India[J]. Energy,2012,42(1):510-521.
[6]孙伟,吴奎华,冯亮,等.配电网投人和产出评价指标简化方法[J].广东电力,2018,31(10):142-148.SUN Wei, WU Kuihua, FENG Liang, et al.Simplification method for investment evaluation indexes of distribution network[J]. Guangdong Electric Power,2018,31(10):142-148.
[7]刘胜利,曹阳,冯跃亮,等.配电网投资效益评价与决策模型研究及应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(2):119-125.LIU Shengli,CAO Yang,FENG Yueliang,et al.Research and application of distribution grid investment effectiveness evaluation and decision making model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(2):119-125.
[8]王国权,乔琨,侯荣均,等.配电网投资效益评价及投资项目的优选[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2017,29(12):146-150.WANG Guoquan, QIAO kun, HOU Rongjun, et al.Evaluation on Investment Returns of Distribution Network and Optimization of Investment Projects[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2017,29(12):146-150.
[9]朱蕾,蒋浩.基于改进主成分分析的低压配电网供电所综合评价方法[J].电力工程技术,2018,37(4):38-44.ZHU Lei, JIANG Hao. Comprehensive evaluation method based on improved principal component analysis of the low voltage distribution network power substation[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology,2018, 37(4):38-44.
[10]刘文霞,刘春雨,高丹丹.配电网建设项目优化模型及求解[J].电网技术,2011,35(5):115-120.LIU Wenxia, LIU Chunyu, GAO Dandan. Optimization model of distribution network construction project and its solution[J].Power System Technology, 2011,35(5):115-120.
[11]胡李栋,卢明凯,金博文,等.基于多属性决策的配电网项目比选体系研究与应用[J].陕西电力,2017,45(6):61-65.HU Lidong, LU Mingkai, JIN Bowen, et al.Research and application of distribution network optimization system based on multiple attribute decision making[J]. Shaanxi Electric Power,2017,45(6):61-65.
[12]李文,崔文婷,冯建华,等.考虑项目属性的中压配电网投资决策方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2018,30(05):50-55+62.LI Wen, CUI Wanting, FENG Jianhua,et al. Decisionmaking method for investment on medium-voltage distribution network considering project attributes[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2018,30(05):50-55+62.
[13]余松,吴延琳,王主丁,等.中压配电网优化排序混合方法[J].智慧电力,2018,46(1):93-99.YU Song, WU Yanlin, WANG Zhuding, et al. Hybridmethod of optimal sorting for mid-voltage distribution network planning projects[J]. Smart Power,2018,46(1):93-99.
[14]吴哲慧,王光增,钟伟,等.配电网发展与投资决策动态评估方法[J].广东电力,2017,30(4):10-14+49.WU Zhehui, WANG Guangzeng, ZHONG wei, et al.Dynamic assessment method for power distribution network development and investment decision-making[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2017,30(4):10-14+49.
[15]崔文婷,刘洪,杨卫红,等.配电网投资分配及项目优选研究[J].中国电力,2015,48(11):149-154.CUI Wenting,LIU Hong,YANG Weihong, et al.Study on distribution network investment allocation and project selection optimization[J]. Electric Power,2015,48(11):149-154.
[16]吴争,崔文婷,龙禹,等.配电网投资效果后评价及投资合理性分析[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2016,28(12):96-102.WU Zheng, CUI Wenting, LONG Yu, et al. Postevaluation and rationality analysis of distribution network investment[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2016,28(12):96-102.
[17]郭新菊,邵永刚,李旭阳,等.基于BP神经网络的配电网工程造价预测模型建立与应用[J].电子设计工程,2017,25(23):63-68.GUO Xinju, SHAG Yonggang, LI Xuyang, et al.Establishment and application of cost prediction model for distribution network project based on BP neural network[J].Electronic Design Engineering,2017,25(23):63-68.