价格规制对天然气需求弹性的影响——以山东地区为例
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摘要
理顺天然气价格、需求和价格规制之间的关系对推进山东省新旧能源转换至关重要。以该省2002～2016年天然气消费数据为样本,采用对数线性需求函数模型与价差法,分别估算引入价格规制变量与不引入价格规制变量时的需求弹性模型。为进一步研究不同行业天然气需求价格弹性与GDP弹性的差异,选取居民、工业、交通运输业与服务业为研究对象,分别估算其需求弹性模型,并结合不同行业的特点对比分析了其需求价格弹性与GDP弹性存在差异的原因。研究发现:考虑价格规制时,山东省总体需求价格弹性为正,呈刚性需求;不考虑价格规制时,需求弹性为负且绝对值大于1,富有弹性;山东省不同行业天然气需求价格弹性和GDP弹性存在较大差异;价格规制降低了天然气需求价格弹性,抑制了GDP弹性,但对不同用户的天然气需求价格弹性与GDP弹性影响程度不同。基于此,提出借鉴美国天然气市场开放经验加快市场化进程、建立天然气动态调整新机制、搭建价格改革新平台等建议。
Straightening out the relationship among the price,demand and price regulation of natural gas is essential for promoting the transition from old energy to new energy in Shandong Province.Taking the natural gas consumption data of Shandong Province from 2002 to 2016 as the sample,this paper uses the log-linear demand function model and the price-gap approach to respectively estimate the demand elasticity model of Shandong Province with and without the introduction of price regulation variable.In order to further study the difference between the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand in different industries,this paper selects four industries including resident,industry,transportation and service as the research object to respectively estimate their demand elasticity models,and compares and analyzes the reasons for the difference between the price elasticity of demand and the GDP elasticity according to the characteristics of different industries.The results show that when the price regulation is considered,the overall price elasticity of demand of Shandong Province is positive and shows rigid demand,and when the price regulation is not considered,the price elasticity of demand is negative and its absolute value is greater than 1.There are great differences between the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand in different industries in Shandong Province.The price regulation reduces the price elasticity of natural gas demand and inhibits the GDP elasticity,but its influence on the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand varies for different users.Based on this,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as drawing on foreign experience to expedite the market-oriented reform of natural gas,establishing a new mechanism for dynamic adjustment of natural gas and building a new platform for price reform.
Straightening out the relationship among the price,demand and price regulation of natural gas is essential for promoting the transition from old energy to new energy in Shandong Province.Taking the natural gas consumption data of Shandong Province from 2002 to 2016 as the sample,this paper uses the log-linear demand function model and the price-gap approach to respectively estimate the demand elasticity model of Shandong Province with and without the introduction of price regulation variable.In order to further study the difference between the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand in different industries,this paper selects four industries including resident,industry,transportation and service as the research object to respectively estimate their demand elasticity models,and compares and analyzes the reasons for the difference between the price elasticity of demand and the GDP elasticity according to the characteristics of different industries.The results show that when the price regulation is considered,the overall price elasticity of demand of Shandong Province is positive and shows rigid demand,and when the price regulation is not considered,the price elasticity of demand is negative and its absolute value is greater than 1.There are great differences between the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand in different industries in Shandong Province.The price regulation reduces the price elasticity of natural gas demand and inhibits the GDP elasticity,but its influence on the price elasticity and GDP elasticity of natural gas demand varies for different users.Based on this,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as drawing on foreign experience to expedite the market-oriented reform of natural gas,establishing a new mechanism for dynamic adjustment of natural gas and building a new platform for price reform.
引文
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[14]IEA.World Energy Outlook Looking at Energy Subsidies:Getting the Prices Right[R].Paris:OECD,1999.
[2]赵连增.中国天然气价格困局——天然气价格改革思考之一[J].国际石油经济,2011,19(增1):98-106.
[3]何永秀,吴锐.基于扩展线性支出系统(ELES)的北京市居民用户能源价格响应特性研究[J].华北电力大学学报:社会科学版,2013(1):8-13.
[4]WANG C,LIN C,ZHANG L,et al.Pt3Co Concave Nanocubes:Synthesis,Formation Understanding,and Enhanced Catalytic Activity toward Hydrogenation of Styrene[J].Chemistry,2014,20(6):1753-1759.
[5]KHAN N A,AWAN A B,MAHMOOD A,et al.Combined E-mission Economic Dispatch of Power System including Solar Photo Voltaic Generation[J].Energy Conversion&Management,2015,92:82-91.
[6]董康银,孙仁金.价格规制对天然气需求弹性的影响——以北京地区为例[J].天然气与石油,2018,36(1):110-117.
[7]NILSEN O B,ASCHE F,TVETERAS R.Natural Gas Demand in the European Household Sector[J].The Energy Journal,2008,29(3):27-46.
[8]SERLETIS A,TIMILSINA G R,VASETSKY O.Interfuel Substitution in the United States[J].Energy Economics,2010,32(3):737-745.
[9]高千惠,叶作亮,代丽,等.天然气价格弹性实证研究——以成都地区为例[J].天然气工业,2012,32(8):113-116.
[10]冯良,张丹,王晓庆.上海天然气市场需求模型构建与计量分析[J].天然气工业,2009,29(2):120-122.
[11]成金华,刘伦,王小林,等.天然气区域市场需求弹性差异性分析及价格规制影响研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(8):131-140.
[12]王韬,叶文奇.电力和天然气补贴对经济及产业结构的影响--基于CGE建模的分析[J].系统工程,2014,32(9):61-67.
[13]张希栋,娄峰,张晓.中国天然气价格管制的碳排放及经济影响——基于非完全竞争CGE模型的模拟研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(7):76-84.
[14]IEA.World Energy Outlook Looking at Energy Subsidies:Getting the Prices Right[R].Paris:OECD,1999.