技术进步、效率提升及价格调控的节能效应
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摘要
使用"十一五""十二五"时期的相关省级面板数据,基于Cobb-Douglas成本函数推出能耗决定模型。在使用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算全要素生产率变化,并将其分解为技术进步、技术效率提升、规模效率提升的基础上,建立面板数据模型,并结合横截面数据模型,实证检验技术进步、效率提升、能源价格对总能源消耗强度以及煤炭、石油、电力等单一能源消耗强度的影响,用以实证分析技术进步、效率提升、价格调控的节能效应。实证结果显示,总体上看,技术进步、效率提升、价格调控具有节能效应,但只有规模效率提升、价格调控的节能效应统计上显著,技术进步、技术效率提升的节能效应统计上不显著。究其原因,与我国TFP增长速度明显落后于经济增长速度并在近年来呈现下降趋势直接相关,而且在TFP指数各分解成分中,技术进步指数、技术效率提升指数较低,规模效率提升指数相对较大。技术进步、效率提升、价格调控的节能效应在不同的单一能源之间、地区之间存在差异,突出体现为价格调控对石油和电力的节能效应显著,而对煤炭的节能效应不理想;技术进步、技术效率提升的节能效应总体上不显著、但在西部地区有较好表现。究其原因,前者与电煤消费占比较高以及煤炭价格的双规制扭曲有关,后者得益于西部大开发战略的推动。为此,技术进步、技术效率提升效应的充分发挥应成为"十三五"时期及以后我国实现节能减排目标的重要抓手。技术进步、效率提升、价格调控的节能效应在不同单一能源之间、地区之间存在的差异,可为节能减排实践中的分类指导提供思路。
Based on the relevant provincial panel data of the 11th Five-Year Plan and the 12th Five-Year Plan,the model of energy consumption decision is deduced by Cobb-Douglas cost function. The variation of total factor productivity is determined by DEAMalmquist index method and is decomposed into technological progress,technological efficiency improvement and scale efficiency improvement. On top of that,panel data model is set up. Combined with the cross-sectional data model,it analyzes the influence of technological progress, efficiency promotion and energy price on the total energy consumption intensity and the single energy consumption intensity of coal,oil and electricity,so as to demonstrate the energy-saving effect of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control. The results show that,on the whole,technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control have energy-saving effect. However,only the effect of scale efficiency improvement and price control are statistically significant,and the effect of technological progress and technical efficiency is statistically insignificant,which are attributed to the fact that the growth rate of TFP in China is obviously lagging behind the economic growth rate and is directly related to the declining trend in recent years.Moreover,in the decomposition of the TFP index,the technological progress index and the technical efficiency promotion index are relatively low and the scale efficiency promotion index is higher. The energy-saving effects of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control are different between the diverse single-energies and between the regions,eminently embodied to the significant influence of price control on the energy-saving effect of oil and electricity,and the non-ideal effect on coal. The energysaving effects of technological progress and technical efficiency are not significant due to the high proportion of thermal coal consumption as well as the twist of double regulation of coal price. While the energy-saving effects of technological progress and technical efficiency show better performances in the western region,which benefits from the western development strategy. All in all,the technological progress and technological efficiency promotion should be fully exerted,which will be the main access to achieve energy-saving emission reduction during the 13th Five-Year period and in the future. The differences of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control of energy-saving effect between different single-energies and regions may provide the suggestions for the classification of energysaving emission reduction.
Based on the relevant provincial panel data of the 11th Five-Year Plan and the 12th Five-Year Plan,the model of energy consumption decision is deduced by Cobb-Douglas cost function. The variation of total factor productivity is determined by DEAMalmquist index method and is decomposed into technological progress,technological efficiency improvement and scale efficiency improvement. On top of that,panel data model is set up. Combined with the cross-sectional data model,it analyzes the influence of technological progress, efficiency promotion and energy price on the total energy consumption intensity and the single energy consumption intensity of coal,oil and electricity,so as to demonstrate the energy-saving effect of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control. The results show that,on the whole,technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control have energy-saving effect. However,only the effect of scale efficiency improvement and price control are statistically significant,and the effect of technological progress and technical efficiency is statistically insignificant,which are attributed to the fact that the growth rate of TFP in China is obviously lagging behind the economic growth rate and is directly related to the declining trend in recent years.Moreover,in the decomposition of the TFP index,the technological progress index and the technical efficiency promotion index are relatively low and the scale efficiency promotion index is higher. The energy-saving effects of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control are different between the diverse single-energies and between the regions,eminently embodied to the significant influence of price control on the energy-saving effect of oil and electricity,and the non-ideal effect on coal. The energysaving effects of technological progress and technical efficiency are not significant due to the high proportion of thermal coal consumption as well as the twist of double regulation of coal price. While the energy-saving effects of technological progress and technical efficiency show better performances in the western region,which benefits from the western development strategy. All in all,the technological progress and technological efficiency promotion should be fully exerted,which will be the main access to achieve energy-saving emission reduction during the 13th Five-Year period and in the future. The differences of technological progress,efficiency promotion and price control of energy-saving effect between different single-energies and regions may provide the suggestions for the classification of energysaving emission reduction.
引文
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[8]何小钢,张耀辉.技术进步、节能减排与发展方式转型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(3):19-33.[HE Xiaogang,ZHANG Yaohui.Technology progress,energy save and emission reduce and development pattern transformation[J].Journal of quantitative&technical economics,2012(3):19-33.]
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[11]FARE R,GROSSKOPF S,NORRIS M,et al.Productivity growth,technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries[J].American economic review,1994,84(1):66-83.
[12]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952—2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.[SHAN Haojie.Reestimating the capital stock of China:1952—2006.[J].Journal of quantitative&technical economics,2008(10):17-31.]
[13]余泳泽.中国省际全要素生产率动态空间收敛性研究[J].世界经济,2015,38(10):30-55.[YU Yongze.Dynamic spatial convergence of provincial total factor productivity in China[J].The journal of world economy,2015,38(10):30-55.]
[14]武鹏.改革以来中国经济增长的动力转换[J].中国工业经济,2013(2):5-17.[WU Peng.The propulsion transform of China’s economic growth since reform[J].China industrial economics,2013(2):5-17.]
[15]张婷,王立凯.对外开放与自主研发对全要素生产率的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的比较研究[J].价格理论与实践,2016(3):140-143.[ZHANG Ting,WANG Likai.Analysis of the effects of open and independent research and development on TFP:a comparative study based on provincial panel data[J].Price:theory&practice,2016(3):140-143.]
[16]项目.知识溢出对高新技术产业影响的实证研究——以中关村国家自主创新示范区为例[J].山东师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2016(4):130-136.[XIANG Mu.The empirical research on the impact of knowledge spillover on high-tech industry:based on the data of Zhongguancun Self-innovative Demonstration Area[J].Journal of Shandong Normal University(humanities and social sciences),2016(4):130-136.]
[17]张宗斌,辛静静.中国对外直接投资贸易效应区域差异研究[J].山东师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2016(2):89-96.[ZHANG Zongbin,XIN Jingjing.Study on regional differences of China’s trade effect from FDI[J].Journal of Shandong Normal University(humanities and social sciences),2016(2):89-96.]
[2]郑义,徐康宁.中国能源强度不断下降的驱动因素——基于对数均值迪氏分解法(LMDI)的研究[J].经济管理,2012(2):11-21.[ZHENG Yi,XU Kangning.Study of the driving factors for changing energy intensity trend in China:base on the LMDI decomposition analysis[J].Economic management journal,2012(2):11-21.]
[3]史丹.我国经济增长过程中能源利用效率的改进[J].经济研究,2002(9):49-56,94.[SHI Dan.The improvement of energy consumption efficiency in China’s economic growth[J].Economic research journal,2002(9):49-56,94.]
[4]周勇,李廉水.中国能源强度变化的结构与效率因素贡献——基于AWD的实证分析[J].产业经济研究,2006(4):68-74.[ZHOU Yong,LI Lianshui.The action of structure and efficiency on Chinese energy intensity:an empirical analysis based on AWD[J].Industrial economics research,2006(4):68-74.]
[5]杭雷鸣,屠梅曾.能源价格对能源强度的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(12):93-100.[HANG Leiming,TU Meizeng.The impact of energy prices on energy intensity[J].Journal of quantitative&technical economics,2006(12):93-100.]
[6]田立新,刘晶.能源强度研究中能源价格影响的实证分析[J].自然资源学报,2010(9):1519-1524.[TIAN Lixin,LIU Jing.Empirical analysis of energy prices in the research of the energy intensity[J].Journal of natural resources,2010(9):1519-1524.]
[7]段文斌,余泳泽.全要素生产率增长有利于提升我国能源效率吗?[J].产业经济研究,2011(4):78-88.[DUAN Wenbin,YU Yongze.Could the growth of TFP improve energy efficiency?[J].Industrial economics research,2011(4):78-88.]
[8]何小钢,张耀辉.技术进步、节能减排与发展方式转型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(3):19-33.[HE Xiaogang,ZHANG Yaohui.Technology progress,energy save and emission reduce and development pattern transformation[J].Journal of quantitative&technical economics,2012(3):19-33.]
[9]FISHER-VANDEN K,JEFFERSON G H,LIU H,et al.What is driving China’s decline in energy intensity?[J].Resource and energy economics,2004,26(1):77-97.
[10]周五七.能源价格、效率增进及技术进步对工业行业能源强度的异质性影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(2):130-143.[ZHOU Wuqi.Heterogeneous impacts of energy price,efficiency improvement and technological progress on energy intensity of industrial sectors[J].Journal of quantitative&technical economics,2016(2):130-143.]
[11]FARE R,GROSSKOPF S,NORRIS M,et al.Productivity growth,technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries[J].American economic review,1994,84(1):66-83.
[12]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952—2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.[SHAN Haojie.Reestimating the capital stock of China:1952—2006.[J].Journal of quantitative&technical economics,2008(10):17-31.]
[13]余泳泽.中国省际全要素生产率动态空间收敛性研究[J].世界经济,2015,38(10):30-55.[YU Yongze.Dynamic spatial convergence of provincial total factor productivity in China[J].The journal of world economy,2015,38(10):30-55.]
[14]武鹏.改革以来中国经济增长的动力转换[J].中国工业经济,2013(2):5-17.[WU Peng.The propulsion transform of China’s economic growth since reform[J].China industrial economics,2013(2):5-17.]
[15]张婷,王立凯.对外开放与自主研发对全要素生产率的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的比较研究[J].价格理论与实践,2016(3):140-143.[ZHANG Ting,WANG Likai.Analysis of the effects of open and independent research and development on TFP:a comparative study based on provincial panel data[J].Price:theory&practice,2016(3):140-143.]
[16]项目.知识溢出对高新技术产业影响的实证研究——以中关村国家自主创新示范区为例[J].山东师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2016(4):130-136.[XIANG Mu.The empirical research on the impact of knowledge spillover on high-tech industry:based on the data of Zhongguancun Self-innovative Demonstration Area[J].Journal of Shandong Normal University(humanities and social sciences),2016(4):130-136.]
[17]张宗斌,辛静静.中国对外直接投资贸易效应区域差异研究[J].山东师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2016(2):89-96.[ZHANG Zongbin,XIN Jingjing.Study on regional differences of China’s trade effect from FDI[J].Journal of Shandong Normal University(humanities and social sciences),2016(2):89-96.]