摘要
以R语言作为工具,建立ARIMA模型拟合瓦斯浓度时间序列并对拟合的残差序列建立GARCH模型,最后将ARIMA模型和GARCH模型结合起来对综采工作面瓦斯浓度进行预测并对预测效果进行评价。研究表明,利用时间序列分析方法可以对综采工作面瓦斯浓度进行精确地预测,进而为综采工作面的安全生产提供合理的决策依据。
Using the R language as a tool, the ARIMA model is established to fit the time series of gas concentration and to establish a GARCH model for the residual sequence of fitting. Finally, the ARIMA model and the GARCH model are combined to predict the gas concentration in the fully mechanized coal mining face and evaluate the prediction effect. The research shows that using time series analysis method can accurately predict gas concentration in fully mechanized coal mining face, and provide reasonable decision-making basis for safety production in fully mechanized coal mining face.
引文
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