气候变化背景下北极海冰对我国冬季气温的影响研究
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摘要
利用1961—2015年中国冬季气温资料、中国气象局逐月北极海冰密集度指数资料和美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NCEP/NCAR)环流资料,采用滑动相关、时滞相关及偏相关等分析方法,探讨了秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响。结果表明,秋季北极海冰改变了后期冬季西西伯利亚高压和华北高压强弱,导致我国西北地区和长江与黄河之间地区冬季气温异常。进一步分析发现,西北地区冬季气温的异常主要是受西西伯利亚高压影响,而长江与黄河之间冬季气温的异常主要是受华北高压影响。而秋季北极海冰通过改变后期冬季欧亚中高纬度环流,进一步影响高原地区冬季气温。
This study used Chinese winter temperature data,the monthly Arctic sea ice concentration index from the China Meteorological Bureau,and NCEP/NCAR circulation reanalysis data to investigate the effects of Arctic sea ice on winter temperatures in China using sliding,time-delay,and partial correlation analyses.The results showed that Arctic sea ice concentration in autumn was correlated with high pressure in West Siberia in late winter and high pressure in North China,which were responsible for winter temperature anomalies in northwestern China and between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River.Further analysis found that the winter temperature anomalies in the northwestern region were affected mainly by high pressure over West Siberia,while the winter temperature anomalies between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River were affected mainly by high pressure in North China.The influence of Arctic sea ice on the late-winter high-latitude Eurasian circulation further affected winter temperatures on the plateau.
This study used Chinese winter temperature data,the monthly Arctic sea ice concentration index from the China Meteorological Bureau,and NCEP/NCAR circulation reanalysis data to investigate the effects of Arctic sea ice on winter temperatures in China using sliding,time-delay,and partial correlation analyses.The results showed that Arctic sea ice concentration in autumn was correlated with high pressure in West Siberia in late winter and high pressure in North China,which were responsible for winter temperature anomalies in northwestern China and between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River.Further analysis found that the winter temperature anomalies in the northwestern region were affected mainly by high pressure over West Siberia,while the winter temperature anomalies between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River were affected mainly by high pressure in North China.The influence of Arctic sea ice on the late-winter high-latitude Eurasian circulation further affected winter temperatures on the plateau.
引文
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2 张璐,张占海,李群,等.近30年北极海冰异常变化趋势[J].极地研究,2009,21(4):344—352.
3 隋翠娟,张占海,吴辉碇,等.1979—2012年北极海冰范围年际和年代际变化分析[J].极地研究,2015,27(2):174—182.
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14 谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,2014,72(4):703—710.
15 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63—65.
16 卢爱刚,庞德谦,康世昌,等.全球变暖背景下中国气温时空差异响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(8):61—65.
17 林学椿.统计天气预报中相关系数的不稳定性问题[J].大气科学,1978,2(1):55—63.
18 陈彦光,刘继生.基于引力模型的城市空间互相关和功率谱分析——引力模型的理论证明、函数推广及应用实例[J].地理研究,2002,21(6):742—752.
19 龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象,2002,21(1):8—14.
20 刘艳霞,陈权亮,郑佳锋.北半球环状模变化特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2013,28(4):396 —401.
21 武炳义,杨琨.从2011/2012和2015/2016年冬季大气环流异常看北极海冰以及前期夏季北极大气环流异常的作用[J].气象学报,2016,74(5):683—696.
2 张璐,张占海,李群,等.近30年北极海冰异常变化趋势[J].极地研究,2009,21(4):344—352.
3 隋翠娟,张占海,吴辉碇,等.1979—2012年北极海冰范围年际和年代际变化分析[J].极地研究,2015,27(2):174—182.
4 Liu J,Song M,Horton R M,et al.Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2013,110(31):12571—12576.
5 Holland M M,Bitz C M.Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models[J].Climate Dynamics,2003,21(3—4):221—232.
6 Hall A.The role of surface albedo feedback in climate[J].Journal of Climate,2004,17(7):1550—1568.
7 蒋全荣,王春红,徐桂玉.北极I区海冰面积变化及其与大气遥相关型的联系[J].气象学报,1996,54(2):240—247.
8 高登义,武炳义.北半球海-冰-气系统的10年振荡及其振源初探[J].大气科学,1998,22(2):137—144.
9 武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.冬季北极喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响[J].大气科学,1999,23(3):267—275.
10 Wu B Y,Su J Z,Zhang R H.Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2011,56(30):3220—3228.
11 Wu B Y,Su J Z,D’Arrigo R.Patterns of Asian winter climate variability and links to Arctic sea ice[J].Journal of Climate,2015,28(17):6841—6858.
12 Francis J A,Chan W H,Leathers D J,et al.Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(7):L07503,doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.
13 Liu J P,Curry J A,Wang H J,et al.Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(11):4074—4079.
14 谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,2014,72(4):703—710.
15 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63—65.
16 卢爱刚,庞德谦,康世昌,等.全球变暖背景下中国气温时空差异响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(8):61—65.
17 林学椿.统计天气预报中相关系数的不稳定性问题[J].大气科学,1978,2(1):55—63.
18 陈彦光,刘继生.基于引力模型的城市空间互相关和功率谱分析——引力模型的理论证明、函数推广及应用实例[J].地理研究,2002,21(6):742—752.
19 龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象,2002,21(1):8—14.
20 刘艳霞,陈权亮,郑佳锋.北半球环状模变化特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2013,28(4):396 —401.
21 武炳义,杨琨.从2011/2012和2015/2016年冬季大气环流异常看北极海冰以及前期夏季北极大气环流异常的作用[J].气象学报,2016,74(5):683—696.