基于气候弹性模型的丹江口水库水源区径流模拟及预测
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摘要
利用1961—2015年丹江口水库水源区41个气象站点逐日降水、气温资料及该水库同期入库径流数据,对丹江口水库水源区水文气象特征进行分析,建立气候弹性模拟公式,开展水库入库径流序列模拟;结合未来RCP2.6、4.5、8.5三种情景下的降水、气温预估数据,预测未来径流演变。结果表明:近50多年来丹江口水库水源区气温以0.13℃·(10 a)-1的速率显著增加,增温主要发生在1990年代以后;入库径流年际和年代际变化显著,整体呈-64.3 m~3·s~(-1)·(10 a)~(-1)的减少趋势。气候弹性模型能较好地模拟出水库入库径流演变趋势,相比气温,径流对降水弹性系数更大;未来三种情景下降水、气温均有所增加,入库径流变化趋势不一,其中RCP2.6情景下各年代入库径流偏少,偏少幅度超270 m~3·s~(-1),RCP4.5情景下各年代一致偏多,RCP8.5情景下径流呈-14.2 m~3·s~(-1)·(10 a)~(-1)减少趋势,年际间波动最为剧烈,不利于水资源调度。
Using datasets of diurnal precipitation and temperature at 41 meteorological stations in the water source area of Danjiangkou reservoir as well as the inflow data from this reservoir during 1961-2015, we have analyzed the hydrometeorological characteristics in the water source area of this reservoir for establishing a climate elasticity fitting formula to simulate the inflow series, and then conducted forecasts for the future runoff evolution based on the estimations of precipitation and temperature under three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results indicate that the temperature in the water source area exhibited a significantly upward trend at 0.13℃ per decade from1961 to 2015, and its increase mainly appeared after 1990 s'. There are clear interannual and interdecadal variations of inflow over the past50 years, whose decreasing trend is overall 64.3 m~3·s~(-1) per decade. The variation tendency of inflow can commendably be simulated by the climate elasticity model, and the elasticity coefficient of runoff to precipitation is higher than to temperature. Both precipitation and temperature are in increasing trend and inflow shows different tendencies under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In RCP2.6 emissions scenario, the interdecadal inflows are in decreasing trend, whose decrement exceeded 270 m~3·s~(-1). In RCP4.5 emissions scenario,the interdecadal inflows all are in increasing trend. In RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the interannual inflows fluctuate severely and decrease by -14.2 m~3·s~(-1) per decade, which meant that it would not be favorable to the managing of water resources.
Using datasets of diurnal precipitation and temperature at 41 meteorological stations in the water source area of Danjiangkou reservoir as well as the inflow data from this reservoir during 1961-2015, we have analyzed the hydrometeorological characteristics in the water source area of this reservoir for establishing a climate elasticity fitting formula to simulate the inflow series, and then conducted forecasts for the future runoff evolution based on the estimations of precipitation and temperature under three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results indicate that the temperature in the water source area exhibited a significantly upward trend at 0.13℃ per decade from1961 to 2015, and its increase mainly appeared after 1990 s'. There are clear interannual and interdecadal variations of inflow over the past50 years, whose decreasing trend is overall 64.3 m~3·s~(-1) per decade. The variation tendency of inflow can commendably be simulated by the climate elasticity model, and the elasticity coefficient of runoff to precipitation is higher than to temperature. Both precipitation and temperature are in increasing trend and inflow shows different tendencies under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In RCP2.6 emissions scenario, the interdecadal inflows are in decreasing trend, whose decrement exceeded 270 m~3·s~(-1). In RCP4.5 emissions scenario,the interdecadal inflows all are in increasing trend. In RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the interannual inflows fluctuate severely and decrease by -14.2 m~3·s~(-1) per decade, which meant that it would not be favorable to the managing of water resources.
引文
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[14]Fu G,Charles S P,Chiew F H S.A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow[J].Water Resources Research,2007,43(11):2 578-2 584
[15]Ma H,Yang D W,Tan S K,et al.Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,389(3):317-324
[16]陈莹,陈兴伟.基于弹性分析的闽江流域径流演变与气候变化关系[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,27(6):101-105
[17]杨娜,赵巧华,闫桂霞,等.气候变化和人类活动对丹江口入库径流的影响及评估[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1 129-1 134
[18]王元超,王旭,雷晓辉,等.丹江口水库入库径流特征及其演变规律[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(1):15-19
[19]盛春淑,罗定贵.基于AVSWAT丰乐河流域水文预测[J].中国农学通报,2006,22(9):493-496
[20]郭晓军,崔鹏,朱兴华.典型泥石流流域蒋家沟的降雨-径流模拟[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(1):175-179
[2]郭海晋,金蓉玲.丹江口水库上游水资源现状及变化趋势[J].自然资源,1997,34(1):28-33
[3]陆华友,邵东国,郭元裕.丹江口水库径流长期预报研究[J].武汉水利电力大学学报,1996,29(6):6-10
[4]刘明宽,徐元顺,朱理国,等.丹江口水库流域致洪过程的水文气候特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2001,20(4):15-16
[5]李英,李致家,张利升,等.丹江口水库北调水量的不确定性分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2008,41(3):34-37
[6]李凌程,张利平,夏军,等.气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):118-126
[7]徐翔宇.气候变化下典型流域的水文响应研究[D].北京:清华大学,2012
[8]杨大文,李翀,倪广恒,等.分布式水文模型在黄河流域的应用[J].地理学报,2004,59(1):143-154
[9]王苗,刘敏,夏智宏.基于SWAT模型未来气候变化对洪湖流域水资源影响研究[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(4):39-47
[10]夏智宏,刘敏,王苗,等.1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(4):515-521
[11]祝诗学,梁忠民,戴昌军,等.丹江口水库流域月尺度降雨与径流预报研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(1):96-101
[12]Schaake J C.From climate to flow,in Climate Chang and U S Water Resources chap 8,edited by Waggoner P E[M].New York:John Wiley,1990:177-206
[13]Dooge J C I.Sensitivity of Runoff to Climate Change:A Hortonian Approach[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1992,73(12):2 003-2 013
[14]Fu G,Charles S P,Chiew F H S.A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow[J].Water Resources Research,2007,43(11):2 578-2 584
[15]Ma H,Yang D W,Tan S K,et al.Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,389(3):317-324
[16]陈莹,陈兴伟.基于弹性分析的闽江流域径流演变与气候变化关系[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,27(6):101-105
[17]杨娜,赵巧华,闫桂霞,等.气候变化和人类活动对丹江口入库径流的影响及评估[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1 129-1 134
[18]王元超,王旭,雷晓辉,等.丹江口水库入库径流特征及其演变规律[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(1):15-19
[19]盛春淑,罗定贵.基于AVSWAT丰乐河流域水文预测[J].中国农学通报,2006,22(9):493-496
[20]郭晓军,崔鹏,朱兴华.典型泥石流流域蒋家沟的降雨-径流模拟[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(1):175-179