近30年北极海冰运动特征分析
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摘要
海冰的分布和运动情况包含了大量的海气耦合的信息。本文采用国际北极海冰浮标计划数据(IABP)获得的1979-2011年74°N-90°N范围内32个站点的海冰流速资料和Myocean再分析资料(ORAP5. 0系列) 1979-2011年海冰流速部分,综合分析了北极海冰时空分布特征及海冰流速大小和方向的统计特征。结果表明:从实测数据与再分析数据比较来看,1999年再分析资料和实测资料有较大偏差,1999年之后再分析资料刻画的趋势和浮标数据趋势近似,因为1999年ORAP5. 0采用了新的物理模型,使所得再分析数据更加精确。从海冰流速季节分布来看,海冰流速在夏季最大,其次是秋季。从海冰流速年际变化来看,在1990年之前,海冰流速逐年变化趋势明显,海冰流速变率更大,而1990年之后海冰流速逐年变化趋势逐渐平缓。从海冰流速大小以及运动方向来看,弗拉姆海峡处海冰流速大于8 cm·s~(-1)的情况出现次数最多。自20世纪90年代以来,海冰流速变化逐渐趋向于一个相对稳定的状态。其原因可能是自20世纪90年代以来,全球变暖"停滞"(Hiatus)现象,比如欧亚大陆中高纬度地区以及北美大西洋地区的温度不仅出现了"增温停滞现象",甚至出现明显的降温现象。MyOcean数据产品项目众多(130种),采用不同的海洋模型得到不同类型的再分析数据,如GLORYS2V3、CGLORS、UR025. 4、ORAP5. 0、M JM 105B等,这些数据涵盖面广,且在许多方面模拟精确度都很高(如ORAP5. 0得到的海冰密集度与实测数据基本一致),所以MyOcean数据产品有效提高了海洋监测和预报的能力。本研究有助于对北极海洋运动、气候变化及海洋生态的认识,对北极渔业和能源开发及航运有重要意义。
The distribution and movement of sea ice contains a large amount of information on the coupling of sea and atmosphere. This paper uses the International Arctic Buoy Program( IABP) data and Myocean reanalysis data( ORAP 5. 0 series),from 1979 to 2011. The results showthat from the comparison between the measured data and the reanalysis data,there is a large deviation between the reanalysis data and the measured data in 1999.After 1999,the trend of the reanalysis data and the trend of the buoy data are similar,because the ORAP 5. 0 was adopted in 1999. The newphysical model makes the resulting reanalysis data more accurate. From the seasonal distribution of sea ice velocity,the sea ice flowrate is the largest in summer,followed by autumn. From the interannual variation of sea ice flowrate,before 1990,the sea ice flowrate changed year by year,and the sea ice flowrate changed more gradually. After 1990,the sea ice flowrate changed gradually. From the perspective of the sea ice flowrate and the direction of motion,the sea ice flowrate at the Fram Strait is more than 8 cm·s~(-1). Since the 1990 s,the sea ice velocity has gradually changed to a relatively stable state. The reason may be that since the 1990 s,the phenomenon of global warming "Hiatus",such as the temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and the Atlantic Ocean in North America,has not only "temperature stagnation"but also Significant cooling. There are many MyOcean projects( 130 kinds),and different types of reanalysis data are obtained by different ocean models,such as GLYYS2V3,CGLORS,UR025. 4,ORAP5. 0,MJM105 B,etc. These data cover a wide range and the accuracy is very high( such as the sea ice concentration obtained by ORAP5. 0 is basically the same as the measured data),so MyOcean data products effectively improve the ability of ocean monitoring and forecasting. This study contributes to the understanding of Arctic marine motion,climate change and marine ecology,and is of great importance to Arctic fisheries and energy development as well as shipping.
The distribution and movement of sea ice contains a large amount of information on the coupling of sea and atmosphere. This paper uses the International Arctic Buoy Program( IABP) data and Myocean reanalysis data( ORAP 5. 0 series),from 1979 to 2011. The results showthat from the comparison between the measured data and the reanalysis data,there is a large deviation between the reanalysis data and the measured data in 1999.After 1999,the trend of the reanalysis data and the trend of the buoy data are similar,because the ORAP 5. 0 was adopted in 1999. The newphysical model makes the resulting reanalysis data more accurate. From the seasonal distribution of sea ice velocity,the sea ice flowrate is the largest in summer,followed by autumn. From the interannual variation of sea ice flowrate,before 1990,the sea ice flowrate changed year by year,and the sea ice flowrate changed more gradually. After 1990,the sea ice flowrate changed gradually. From the perspective of the sea ice flowrate and the direction of motion,the sea ice flowrate at the Fram Strait is more than 8 cm·s~(-1). Since the 1990 s,the sea ice velocity has gradually changed to a relatively stable state. The reason may be that since the 1990 s,the phenomenon of global warming "Hiatus",such as the temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and the Atlantic Ocean in North America,has not only "temperature stagnation"but also Significant cooling. There are many MyOcean projects( 130 kinds),and different types of reanalysis data are obtained by different ocean models,such as GLYYS2V3,CGLORS,UR025. 4,ORAP5. 0,MJM105 B,etc. These data cover a wide range and the accuracy is very high( such as the sea ice concentration obtained by ORAP5. 0 is basically the same as the measured data),so MyOcean data products effectively improve the ability of ocean monitoring and forecasting. This study contributes to the understanding of Arctic marine motion,climate change and marine ecology,and is of great importance to Arctic fisheries and energy development as well as shipping.
引文
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Zuo H,Balmaseda M A,Mogensen K,2015.The new eddy-permitting ORAP5 ocean reanalysis:description,evaluation and uncertainties in climate signals[J].Climate Dynamics,49(3):791-811.
保云涛,游庆龙,谢欣汝,2018.青藏高原积雪时空变化特征及年际异常成因[J].高原气象,37(4):900-910.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00099.
宋燕,李智才,肖子牛,等,2016.太阳活动与高原积雪及东亚环流的年代际相关分析[J].高原气象,35(5):1135-1147.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00059.
姜珊,杨清华,梁颖祺,等,2017.可服务于北极航道的海冰与气象预报信息综合分析[J].极地研究,29(3):400-413.
李艳,张金玉,李旭,等,2018.两次典型极端低温过程低频特征分析[J].高原气象,37(5):1341-1352.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00035.
田忠翔,2012.北极海冰运动变化特征分析[D].北京:国家海洋环境预报研究中心.
谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平,2014.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,72(4):703-710.
肖莺,任永建,杜良敏,2018.气候变化背景下北极海冰对我国冬季气温的影响研究[J].极地研究,30(1):15-21.
许小勇,钟太勇,2006.三次样条插值函数的构造与Matlab实现[J].自动测量与控制,25(11):76-78.
余予,任芝花,孟晓艳,2018.中国结冰现象序列的建立及气候变化分析[J].高原气象,37(2):554-559.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00071.
Easterling D R,Wehner M F,2009.Is the climate warming or cooling?[J].Geophysical Research Letters,36(8):L08706.DOI:10.1029/2009GL037810.
Held I M,2013.Climate science:The cause of the pause[J].Nature,7467(501):318-319.
Dorandeu J,2016.Introduction My Ocean2 and My Ocean-Follow-On projects[J].Mercator Ocean Journal,54:5-9.
Jacob T,Wahr J,Pfeffer W T,et al,2012.Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise[J].Nature,482:514-518.DOI:10.1038/10847.
Kwok R,2000.Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,27:775-778.
Kwok R,2006.Contrasts in sea ice deformation and production in the Arctic seasonal and perennial ice zones[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,111:C11S22.
Kwok R,Untersteiner N,2011.The thinning of Arctic sea ice[J].Physics Today,64:36-41.
Lukovich J V,Barber D G,2006.Atmospheric controls on sea ice motion in the southern Beaufort Sea[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,111:D18103.
S'wierczyńska M,Miziński B,Niedzielski T,2016.Comparison of predictive skills offered by Prognocean,Prognocean Plus and My Ocean real-time sea level forecasting systems[J].Ocean Engineering,113:44-65.
Ogi M,Wallace J M,2007.Summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent and the associated circulation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,34:L12705.
Rigor I G,Wallace J M,Colony R L,2002.Response of sea ice to Arctic Oscillation[J].Journal of Climate,15:2648-2663.
Spreen G,Kwok R,Menemenlis D,2011.Trends in Arctic sea ice drift and role of wind forcing:1992-2009[J].Geophysical Research Letter,38:L19501.
Tremblay L B,Mysak L A,1998.On the origin and evolution of sea-ice anomalies in the Beaufort-Chuckchi Sea[J].Climate Dynamics,14:451-460.
Wang X,Zhao J,2012.Seasonal and interannual variations of the primary types of the Arctic sea ice drifting patterns[J].Advances in Polar Science,23(2):72-81.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1085.2012.00072.
Wadhams P,2000.Ice in the ocean[M].New York:Gordon and Breach Science Publisher.
Wu B Y,Wang J,Walsh J E,2006.Dipole Anomaly in the Winter Arctic Atmosphere and Its Association with Sea Ice Motion[J].J.Climate,19:210-225.
Wu B Y,Su J Z,Arrigo R,2015.Patterns of Asian winter climate variability and links to Arctic sea ice[J].Journal of Climate,28(17):6841-6858.
Zhao Y,Liu A K,2007.Arctic sea-ice motion and its relation to pressure field[J].Journal of Oceanography,63:505-515.
Zhang J,Rothrock D A,Steele M,2000.Recent changes in Arctic sea ice:the interplay between ice dynamics and thermodynamics[J].Journal of Climate,13:3099-3114.
Zuo H,Balmaseda M A,Mogensen K,2015.The new eddy-permitting ORAP5 ocean reanalysis:description,evaluation and uncertainties in climate signals[J].Climate Dynamics,49(3):791-811.
保云涛,游庆龙,谢欣汝,2018.青藏高原积雪时空变化特征及年际异常成因[J].高原气象,37(4):900-910.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00099.
宋燕,李智才,肖子牛,等,2016.太阳活动与高原积雪及东亚环流的年代际相关分析[J].高原气象,35(5):1135-1147.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00059.
姜珊,杨清华,梁颖祺,等,2017.可服务于北极航道的海冰与气象预报信息综合分析[J].极地研究,29(3):400-413.
李艳,张金玉,李旭,等,2018.两次典型极端低温过程低频特征分析[J].高原气象,37(5):1341-1352.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00035.
田忠翔,2012.北极海冰运动变化特征分析[D].北京:国家海洋环境预报研究中心.
谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平,2014.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,72(4):703-710.
肖莺,任永建,杜良敏,2018.气候变化背景下北极海冰对我国冬季气温的影响研究[J].极地研究,30(1):15-21.
许小勇,钟太勇,2006.三次样条插值函数的构造与Matlab实现[J].自动测量与控制,25(11):76-78.
余予,任芝花,孟晓艳,2018.中国结冰现象序列的建立及气候变化分析[J].高原气象,37(2):554-559.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00071.