海南岛橡胶割胶期的气候适宜度变化特征分析
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摘要
选取海南省18个市县气象站1961—2017年逐日气象资料,构建逐月橡胶割胶单要素(温度、日照时数、降水量和降水日数、风速)和综合气候适宜度模型,分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:1)海南岛天然橡胶单要素适宜度对比排序:日照适宜度最高,降水和风速适宜度次之,温度适宜度最低。2)橡胶割胶气候适宜度为0.43～0.80,其中4—11月较高,适宜割胶;12月至次年3月较低,不适宜割胶。3)天然橡胶割胶适宜度高值区主要分布在海南岛中部地区,该区温度适宜度较高,降水量充足,年平均风速小;低值区主要分布在西部和北部沿海地区,该区主要因为年平均风速大,降雨量不足,易造成干旱;其余地区为适宜度次高值区,该区热量和降水都比较充足,但也容易受高温干旱或风害影响,应予以重点防范。4)1961—2017年海南岛橡胶割胶期气候适宜度总体呈明显增大趋势,气候倾向率为0.009/10a。
The daily meteorological data at 18 weather stations in Hainan province from 1961 to 2017 was selected to construct monthly single factor(temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation and precipitation days, and wind speed) and integrated climate suitable model of rubber tapping, and the variation characteristic was analyzed. The results are as follows. 1)The single factor suitability order of natural rubber in Hainan Island was sunshine, the most suitable, precipitation and wind speed, appropriate suitable, temperature,the least. 2)The monthly climate suitability of the rubber tapping was 0.43—0.80, which was high in April to November, low in December to March, when was not suitable for rubber tapping. 3)The high value region of natural rubber suitability distributed in the central part of Hainan Island, where the temperature suitability was high, the precipitation was abundant, and the annual mean wind speed was low. The low value area distributed in the western and northern coastal areas, where the annual mean wind speed was great, precipitation was inadequate, and drought often happened. The remaining areas were the secondary high value region, which were abundant in heat and rainfall, but vulnerable to high temperature, drought or wind damage, so precaution should be took. 4)During the period 1961—2017, the climate suitability of rubber generally increased significantly in Hainan Island, while the climate trend rate was 0.009/10 a.
The daily meteorological data at 18 weather stations in Hainan province from 1961 to 2017 was selected to construct monthly single factor(temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation and precipitation days, and wind speed) and integrated climate suitable model of rubber tapping, and the variation characteristic was analyzed. The results are as follows. 1)The single factor suitability order of natural rubber in Hainan Island was sunshine, the most suitable, precipitation and wind speed, appropriate suitable, temperature,the least. 2)The monthly climate suitability of the rubber tapping was 0.43—0.80, which was high in April to November, low in December to March, when was not suitable for rubber tapping. 3)The high value region of natural rubber suitability distributed in the central part of Hainan Island, where the temperature suitability was high, the precipitation was abundant, and the annual mean wind speed was low. The low value area distributed in the western and northern coastal areas, where the annual mean wind speed was great, precipitation was inadequate, and drought often happened. The remaining areas were the secondary high value region, which were abundant in heat and rainfall, but vulnerable to high temperature, drought or wind damage, so precaution should be took. 4)During the period 1961—2017, the climate suitability of rubber generally increased significantly in Hainan Island, while the climate trend rate was 0.009/10 a.
引文
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[22]张建军,马晓群,许莹.安徽省一季稻生长气候适宜性评价指标的建立与试用[J].气象,20l3,39(1):88-93.
[23]宋迎波,王建林,李昊宇,等.冬小麦气候适宜诊断指标确定方法探讨[J].气象,2013,39(6):768-773.
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[32]刘琰琰,李海燕,陈超,等.攀西地区烤烟气候适宜性评价指标建立及应用[J].四川农业大学学报,2015,33(20):299-305.
[33]吉志红,陈敏,张心令.基于GIS的三门峡市苹果种植气候适宜性区划[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):61-66.
[34]阿布都克日木·阿巴司,努尔帕提曼·买买提热依木,胡素琴,等.新疆巴楚气象因子对棉花发育期及产量的影响分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):88-94.
[35]王华,胡飞,黄俊.基于GIS的广东冬种辣椒气候适宜性区划[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(3):76-80.
[36]刘少军,房世波.海南岛天然橡胶气候适宜性及变化趋势分析—以第一蓬叶生长期为例[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(6):1062-1066.
[37]黄璜.中国红黄壤地区作物生产的气候生态适应性研究[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(4):340-345.
[38]陈小敏,陈汇林,邹海平.1961-2010 年海南岛日照时数时空变化特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(1):161-166.
[39]吴岩峻.不同天气系统对海南岛降水的贡献及其变化的研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.
[2]马玉坤,张培群,王式功,等.华南前汛期夏季风降水开始日期的确定[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):332-339.
[3]王春乙,吴慧,邢旭煌,等.海南气候[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:67-78.
[4]王劲松,张强,王素萍,等.西南和华南干旱灾害链特征分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):187-194.
[5]袁良,何金海.两类ENSO对我国华南地区冬季降水的不同影响[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):24-31.
[6]郭玉清,张汝.气象条件与橡胶树产胶量的关系[J].云南热作科技,1980(1):8-11.
[7]杨铨.几种气象因子与产胶量的关系[J].中国农业气象,1987(1):42-44.
[8]李国尧,王权宝,李玉英,等.橡胶树产胶量影响因素[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(2):510-517.
[9]华南热带作物学院.橡胶栽培学[M].北京:农业出版社,1989.
[10]阚丽艳,谢贵水,陶忠良,等.海南省2007—2008年冬橡胶树寒害情况浅析[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(10):251-257.
[11]陈小敏,陈汇林,陶忠良.2008年初海南橡胶寒害遥感监测初探[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):24-28.
[12]刘少军,周广胜,房世波.1961-2010年中国橡胶寒害的时空分布特征[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(5):1282-1288.
[13]邱志荣,刘霞,王光琼,等.海南岛天然橡胶寒害空间分布特征研究[J].热带农业科学,2013,33(11):67-69.
[14]张明洁,张京红,刘少军,等.基于FY-3A的海南岛橡胶林台风灾害遥感监测—以“纳沙”台风为例[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(3):86-92.
[15]刘少军,张京红,蔡大鑫,等.Landsat 8在橡胶林台风灾害监测中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(2):53-58.
[16]杨少琼,莫业勇,范恩伟.台风对橡胶树的影响[J].热带作物学报,1995,16(1):17-28.
[17]张京红,刘少军.基于GIS的海南岛橡胶林风害评估技术及应用[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):175-181.
[18]张京红,陶忠良,刘少军,等.采用可拓学方法进行橡胶林风害影响评估—以1108号强热带风暴“洛坦”为例[J].热带作物学报,2012,33(5):945-949.
[19]刘少军,张京红,蔡大鑫,等.台风对天然橡胶影响评估模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(1):155-160.
[20]李海亮,戴声佩,陈帮乾.基于HJ-1A/1B 数据的天然橡胶干旱监测[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(23):176-182.
[21]魏瑞江,李春强,姚树然.农作物气候适宜度实时判定系统[J].气象科技,2006,34(2):229-232.
[22]张建军,马晓群,许莹.安徽省一季稻生长气候适宜性评价指标的建立与试用[J].气象,20l3,39(1):88-93.
[23]宋迎波,王建林,李昊宇,等.冬小麦气候适宜诊断指标确定方法探讨[J].气象,2013,39(6):768-773.
[24]李昊宇,王建林,郑昌玲,等.气候适宜度在华北冬小麦发育期预报中的应用[J].气象,2012,38(12):1554-1559.
[25]成林,刘荣花.农学模式在冬小麦产量动态预报中的应用[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(2):28-32.
[26]王胜,田红,党修伍,等.安徽淮北平原冬小麦气候适宜度分析及作物年景评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(3):253-261.
[27]谭方颖,宋迎波,毛留喜,等.东北地区玉米气候适宜评价指标的确定与验证[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(5):234-239.
[28]侯英雨,张艳红,王良宇,等.东北地区春玉米气候适宜度模型[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(11):3207-3212.
[29]李树岩,余卫东.基于气候适宜度的河南省夏玉米产量预报研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2015,49(1):27-34.
[30]李树岩,陈怀亮.河南省夏玉米气候适宜度评价[J].干旱气象,2014,32(5):751-759.
[31]金志凤,叶建刚,杨再强,等.浙江省茶叶生长的气候适宜性[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(4):967-973.
[32]刘琰琰,李海燕,陈超,等.攀西地区烤烟气候适宜性评价指标建立及应用[J].四川农业大学学报,2015,33(20):299-305.
[33]吉志红,陈敏,张心令.基于GIS的三门峡市苹果种植气候适宜性区划[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):61-66.
[34]阿布都克日木·阿巴司,努尔帕提曼·买买提热依木,胡素琴,等.新疆巴楚气象因子对棉花发育期及产量的影响分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):88-94.
[35]王华,胡飞,黄俊.基于GIS的广东冬种辣椒气候适宜性区划[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(3):76-80.
[36]刘少军,房世波.海南岛天然橡胶气候适宜性及变化趋势分析—以第一蓬叶生长期为例[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(6):1062-1066.
[37]黄璜.中国红黄壤地区作物生产的气候生态适应性研究[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(4):340-345.
[38]陈小敏,陈汇林,邹海平.1961-2010 年海南岛日照时数时空变化特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(1):161-166.
[39]吴岩峻.不同天气系统对海南岛降水的贡献及其变化的研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.