政府债务对企业杠杆的影响存在挤出效应吗?——来自中国的经验证据
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摘要
本文构建了一个企业融资行为选择模型,提出政府债务规模差异影响企业融资决策的理论命题,利用2005—2016年中国782家上市非金融企业的面板数据,实证检验了政府债务对企业杠杆的影响。研究发现:第一,在企业市场杠杆率和财务杠杆率两种口径之下,政府债务与企业杠杆之间都表现出显著的负相关关系,即政府债务对企业杠杆的影响存在显著的挤出效应,且进一步研究表明,这种挤出效应主要是由国内政府债务驱动而不是国外政府债务驱动;第二,考虑企业存在异质性融资摩擦的情况下,企业的规模越大,面临的融资摩擦越小,政府债务对企业杠杆的挤出效应越明显;第三,采用动态面板方法估计控制内生性以及删除异常样本点后,政府债务对企业杠杆的影响存在挤出效应的结论依然稳健。以上结论说明,在经济下行压力下,通过政府阶段性加杠杆,可以有效支持企业逐步去杠杆,促进实体经济持续健康发展。
This paper constructs an enterprise financing behavior choice model, and puts forward the theoretical proposition that government debt difference influences enterprise financing decision. Using the panel data set of 782 listed non-financial enterprises in China for 2005—2016 years, this paper empirically tests the impact of government debt on enterprise leverage. The results show that, firstly, with the two types of market leverage and financial leverage, there is a significant negative correlation between government debt and corporate leverage. That is, there is a significant crowding out effect of government debt on corporate leverage. And further studies show that the crowding out effect is driven mainly by domestic government debt rather than foreign government debt. Secondly, considering the existence of heterogeneous financing frictions,the larger the scale of the enterprise, the smaller the financial friction, and the crowding out effect of the government debt on the leverage of the enterprise is more obvious. Thirdly, after the dynamic panel method is used to estimate and control the endogenesis and the abnormal samples are removed, the conclusion that the government debt has crowding-out effect on corporate leverage is still robust. The above conclusions show that under the downward pressure of the economy, the government can effectively support the gradual deleveraging of the enterprises through the phased increase of leverage, thus promoting the sustained and healthy development of the real economy.
This paper constructs an enterprise financing behavior choice model, and puts forward the theoretical proposition that government debt difference influences enterprise financing decision. Using the panel data set of 782 listed non-financial enterprises in China for 2005—2016 years, this paper empirically tests the impact of government debt on enterprise leverage. The results show that, firstly, with the two types of market leverage and financial leverage, there is a significant negative correlation between government debt and corporate leverage. That is, there is a significant crowding out effect of government debt on corporate leverage. And further studies show that the crowding out effect is driven mainly by domestic government debt rather than foreign government debt. Secondly, considering the existence of heterogeneous financing frictions,the larger the scale of the enterprise, the smaller the financial friction, and the crowding out effect of the government debt on the leverage of the enterprise is more obvious. Thirdly, after the dynamic panel method is used to estimate and control the endogenesis and the abnormal samples are removed, the conclusion that the government debt has crowding-out effect on corporate leverage is still robust. The above conclusions show that under the downward pressure of the economy, the government can effectively support the gradual deleveraging of the enterprises through the phased increase of leverage, thus promoting the sustained and healthy development of the real economy.
引文
[1]陈卫东,熊启跃.银行业杠杆状况与政策建议[J].中国金融, 2017(11):45-48
[2]程宇丹,龚六堂.政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2014(12):22-37
[3]范小云,方才,何青.谁在推高企业债务融资成本——兼对政府融资的“资产组合效应”的检验[J].财贸经济, 2017(1):51-65
[4]李广子,刘力.债务融资成本与民营信贷歧视[J].金融研究, 2009(12):137-150
[5]李焰,许宇科.金融体系稳定的微观基础:对我国企业内源、外源融资结构及盈利能力的分析[J].财贸经济,2007(10):44-50
[6]李泽广.名义汇率与均衡汇率的偏离及其调整[J].南开经济研究, 2003(6):44-49
[7]梁中华,余淼杰.人民币升值与中国出口企业盈利能力——基于面板数据的实证分析[J].金融研究, 2014(7):1-15
[8]马勇,陈雨露.金融杠杆、杠杆波动与经济增长[J].经济研究, 2017(6):31-45
[9]裘丽,张建平.周期性行业的企业杠杆特征——基于中国A股上市公司的经验研究[J].当代财经, 2016(4):61-71
[10]邱栎桦,伏润民,李帆.经济增长视角下的政府债务适度规模研究——基于中国西部D省的县级面板数据分析[J].南开经济研究, 2015(1):13-31
[11]王鲁平,毛伟平.财务杠杆、投资机会与公司投资行为——基于制造业上市公司Panel Data的证据[J].管理评论, 2010(11):99-110
[12] Berndt A, Lustig H, Yeltekin S. How Does the US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?[J]. American Economic Journal, 2012, 4(1):69-104
[13] Friedman B M. Implications of Government Deficits for Interest Rates, Equity Returns and Corporate Financing.Financing Corporate Capital Formation[M]. University of Chicago Press, 1986
[14] Graham J R, Leary M T, Roberts M R. A Century of Capital Structure:The Leveraging of Corporate America[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2015, 118(3):658-683
[15] Greenwood R, Hanson S, Stein J C. A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2010, 65(3):993-1028
[16] Korajczyk R A. Levy A. Capital Structure Choice:Macroeconomic Conditions and Financial Constraints[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2003, 68(1):75-109
[17] Krishnamurthy A, Vissing-Jorgensen A. The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2012, 120(2):233-267
[18] Lemmon M, Roberts M R. The Response of Corporate Financing and Investment to Changes in the Supply of Credit[J]. Journal of Financial&Quantitative Analysis, 2010, 45(3):555-587
[19] Norden L, Drometer M, Hainz C. When Good Intentions Go Wrong:Effects of Bank Deregulation and Governance on Risk-Taking[J]. Cesifo Dice Report, 2013, 11(3):48-54
[20] Rangarajan C, Srivastava D K. Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt:Implications for Growth and Stabilisation[J].Economic&Political Weekly, 2005, 40(27):2919-2934
[21] Taggart Jr R. Have US Corporations Grown Financially Weak? Financing Corporate Capital Formation[J]. University of Chicago Press, 1986
[22] Welch I. Two Common Problems in Capital Structure Research:The Financial Debt to Asset Ratio and Issuing Activity Versus Leverage Changes[J]. International Review of Finance, 2011, 11(1):1-17
(1)主要依据上市公司实际控制人判断该上市公司是国有企业,还是非国有企业,将实际控制人为国务院国资委、地方国资委、中央部委以及地方各级政府(部门)控股的上市公司归为国有企业上市公司,其他归为非国有企业上市公司。
[2]程宇丹,龚六堂.政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2014(12):22-37
[3]范小云,方才,何青.谁在推高企业债务融资成本——兼对政府融资的“资产组合效应”的检验[J].财贸经济, 2017(1):51-65
[4]李广子,刘力.债务融资成本与民营信贷歧视[J].金融研究, 2009(12):137-150
[5]李焰,许宇科.金融体系稳定的微观基础:对我国企业内源、外源融资结构及盈利能力的分析[J].财贸经济,2007(10):44-50
[6]李泽广.名义汇率与均衡汇率的偏离及其调整[J].南开经济研究, 2003(6):44-49
[7]梁中华,余淼杰.人民币升值与中国出口企业盈利能力——基于面板数据的实证分析[J].金融研究, 2014(7):1-15
[8]马勇,陈雨露.金融杠杆、杠杆波动与经济增长[J].经济研究, 2017(6):31-45
[9]裘丽,张建平.周期性行业的企业杠杆特征——基于中国A股上市公司的经验研究[J].当代财经, 2016(4):61-71
[10]邱栎桦,伏润民,李帆.经济增长视角下的政府债务适度规模研究——基于中国西部D省的县级面板数据分析[J].南开经济研究, 2015(1):13-31
[11]王鲁平,毛伟平.财务杠杆、投资机会与公司投资行为——基于制造业上市公司Panel Data的证据[J].管理评论, 2010(11):99-110
[12] Berndt A, Lustig H, Yeltekin S. How Does the US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?[J]. American Economic Journal, 2012, 4(1):69-104
[13] Friedman B M. Implications of Government Deficits for Interest Rates, Equity Returns and Corporate Financing.Financing Corporate Capital Formation[M]. University of Chicago Press, 1986
[14] Graham J R, Leary M T, Roberts M R. A Century of Capital Structure:The Leveraging of Corporate America[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2015, 118(3):658-683
[15] Greenwood R, Hanson S, Stein J C. A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2010, 65(3):993-1028
[16] Korajczyk R A. Levy A. Capital Structure Choice:Macroeconomic Conditions and Financial Constraints[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2003, 68(1):75-109
[17] Krishnamurthy A, Vissing-Jorgensen A. The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2012, 120(2):233-267
[18] Lemmon M, Roberts M R. The Response of Corporate Financing and Investment to Changes in the Supply of Credit[J]. Journal of Financial&Quantitative Analysis, 2010, 45(3):555-587
[19] Norden L, Drometer M, Hainz C. When Good Intentions Go Wrong:Effects of Bank Deregulation and Governance on Risk-Taking[J]. Cesifo Dice Report, 2013, 11(3):48-54
[20] Rangarajan C, Srivastava D K. Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt:Implications for Growth and Stabilisation[J].Economic&Political Weekly, 2005, 40(27):2919-2934
[21] Taggart Jr R. Have US Corporations Grown Financially Weak? Financing Corporate Capital Formation[J]. University of Chicago Press, 1986
[22] Welch I. Two Common Problems in Capital Structure Research:The Financial Debt to Asset Ratio and Issuing Activity Versus Leverage Changes[J]. International Review of Finance, 2011, 11(1):1-17
(1)主要依据上市公司实际控制人判断该上市公司是国有企业,还是非国有企业,将实际控制人为国务院国资委、地方国资委、中央部委以及地方各级政府(部门)控股的上市公司归为国有企业上市公司,其他归为非国有企业上市公司。