“伊斯兰国”南亚分支的现状与发展前景
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摘要
"伊斯兰国"南亚分支亦即"呼罗珊省",成立于2015年,它标志着"伊斯兰国"在南亚开始大规模的渗透。在不足两年的时间里,"伊斯兰国"向南亚特别是阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度、孟加拉国大肆渗透,形成较大影响。"伊斯兰国"南亚分支的扩张,加剧了与"基地"、"塔利班"等的矛盾,对美国的南亚政策形成新的冲击,甚至可能危及美国本土安全。然而,美国和地区国家的军事行动、"基地"和塔利班等势力的强大竞争、以及自身结构松散的制度性缺陷等三大制约因素决定了"伊斯兰国"南亚分支在可预见的将来尚难以发展壮大。
A fter officially claiming its presence in South Asia in early 2015,ISIS has immediately made tangible inroad into some South Asia countries especially Afghanistan,Pakistan,India,and Bangladesh. ISIS' presence in South Asia intensifies conflicts between it and Al- Qaeda,Taliban,etc. ISIS' presence and expansion in the region will bring about new impacts on USA's South Asia policy and even endangers USA's national security. But ISIS' further expansion in South Asia will be contained from a number of factors,such as military forces of USA and regional powers,fierce competition from Al- Qaeda and Taliban,as well as its loose organizational structure.
A fter officially claiming its presence in South Asia in early 2015,ISIS has immediately made tangible inroad into some South Asia countries especially Afghanistan,Pakistan,India,and Bangladesh. ISIS' presence in South Asia intensifies conflicts between it and Al- Qaeda,Taliban,etc. ISIS' presence and expansion in the region will bring about new impacts on USA's South Asia policy and even endangers USA's national security. But ISIS' further expansion in South Asia will be contained from a number of factors,such as military forces of USA and regional powers,fierce competition from Al- Qaeda and Taliban,as well as its loose organizational structure.
引文
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[2]Harleen Gambhir.ISIS in the Afghanistan”,Institute in the Study of War[EB/OL].http://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/harleen-gambhir,2016-03-01.
[3]Ban Ki moon warns against ISIS spread in South Asia[EB/OL].Economic Times,2016-02-10,2016,http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2016-02-10/news/70509737_1_isil-secretary-general-ban-ki-moon-south-asia,2016-03-04.
[4]Khuram Iqbal.Advent of the IS:A Perspective from Pakistan[A].Asian Conflicts Report:The Geopolitics of Extremism:ISIS in Asia a publication by the Geneva Center for Security Policy(GCSP)[R].Aug 2015.
[5]Edwin Mora.ISIS Expands into Khorasan Territory:Af-Pak,India Region[EB/OL].http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/01/29/isis-expands-into-khorasan-territory-af-pak-india-region/,2016-03-08.
[6]India alert to ISIS threat,says Rajnath Singh,a day after Home ministry warns of terror attacks[N].The Times of India,Nov 17.
[7]Lisa Curtis.Combatting the ISIS Foreign Fighter Pipeline:A Global Approach[R].The Heritage Foundation,Special Report#180 on Terrorism,January 6 2016,http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/01/combatting-the-isis-foreign-fighter-pipeline-a-global-approach,2016-03-07.
[8]Michael Kaplan.ISIS Spreads To Bangladesh?Islamic State Group Claims New Leader Appointed In South Asia Amid Heightened International Terror[N].International Business Times,2015-11-23,http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-spreads-bangladesh-islamic-state-group-claims-new-leader-appointedsouth-asia-2196504,2016-03-08.
[9]20 Hostages Killed in'Isil'Attack on Dhaka Restaurant Popular with Foreigners[N].The Telegraph,2016-07-02,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/01/gunmen-attack-restaurant-in-diplomatic-quarter-of-bangladeshi-ca/,2016-07-04.
[10]Priyanka Boghani.ISIS is in Afghanistan,But Who Are They Really?[EB/OL].PBS,http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/isis-is-in-afghanistan-but-who-are-they-really/,2016-03-01.
[11]Michael Kugelman.How isis could become a potent force in south asia[EB/OL].Foreign Policy,2015-02-20,http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/20/how-isis-could-become-apotent-force-in-south-asia/,2016-03-09.
[12]Benjamin Bahney,Patrick B.Johnston,.To Defeat ISIS,Focus on Its Real Sources of Strength[EB/OL].The National Interest,2015-11-04,http://nationalinterest.org/feature/defeat-isis-focus-its-real-sources-strength-14510?page=show,2016-03-08.
[13]田文林.“伊斯兰国”兴起与美国的中东战略[J].现代国际关系,2014,(10).
[14]Thomas F.Lynch III.The Impact of ISIS on Global Salafism and South Asian Jihad[EB/OL].http://www.hudson.org/research/11608-the-impact-of-isis-on-global-salafismand-south-asian-jihad,2016-01-30.
[15]John Hayward.Al Qaeda Leader Declares War Against ISIS,Accuses Al-Baghdadi of“Sedition”[EB/OL].The Breitbart,2015-09-10,http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/09/10/al-qaeda-leader-declares-war-against-isisaccuses-al-baghdadi-of-sedition/,2016-03-26.
[16]Terrorists VS terrorists:ISIS in“direct rivalry with Taliban in Afghanistan”UN says29[EB/OL].Dec,2015,https://www.rt.com/news/327348-taliban-isis-confrontation-afghanistan/,2016-03-14.
[17]Seth G.Jones.Expanding the Caliphate:ISIS'South Asia Strategy[EB/OL].Foreign Affairs,2015-06-11,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2015-06-11/expanding-caliphate,2016-03-01.
[18]Andrew Tilghman.ISIS in Afghanistan:U.S.forces OK'd to attack emerging offshoot[EB/OL].Military Times,2016-01-20,http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2016/01/20/us-military-afghanistan-gets-green-light-targeting-islamic-state-offshoot/79067120/,2016-03-01.
[19]Farhan Bokhari and Victor Mallet.Pakistan Lauches Crackdown on ISIS[EB/OL].Financial Times,2015-11-30,http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/edbd7206-aed7-11e5-993bc425a3d2b65a.html#axzz44a Hoy El1,2016-04-01.
[20]Arif Rafiq.What Happened to ISIS's Afghanistan-Pakistan Province?[J].The Diplomat,2016-02-02,http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/what-happened-to-isiss-afghanistanpakistan-province/,2016-03-14.
[21]Suba Chandran.The Islamic State:India Isn’t Alarmed,yet[A].Asian Conflicts Reports:the Geopolitics of Extremism:ISIS in Asia[R].Aug 2015,http:www.gcsp.ch/download/4450/104352,2016-03-07.
[22]ISIS does not consider Indians good fighter[N].The Times of India,2015-11-23,http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ISIS-does-not-consider-Indians-good-fighter/articleshow/49894644.cms,2016-03-27.
[23]The National Security Strategy[EB/OL].The White House,Feb,2015,https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf,2016-03-07.
[24]Obama authorizes US troops to target new ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan[EB/OL].2016-01-21,https://www.rt.com/usa/329638-obama-usa-troops-isis-afghanistan/,2016-03-22.
[25]U.S.airstrikes target ISIS in Afghanistan[EB/OL].CBS News,2016-02-11,http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-airstrikes-target-isis-in-afghanistan/,2016-03-11.
[26]Barbara Starr,Ryan Browne and Laura Koran.Pentagon:ISIS finance minister killed[EB/OL].CNN,2016-03-25,http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politics/isis-no-2-in-command-killed-u-s-believes/index.html,2016-03-25.
[27]Thomas Joscelyn.Islamic State's“Khorasan province”threatens Taliban in latest video[EB/OL].The Long War Journal,2015-06-04,http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/06/islamic-states-khorasan-province-threatens-taliban-inlatest-video.php,2016-04-03.
(1)萨拉菲主义是极端的逊尼派伊斯兰政治与宗教运动,自称致力于恢复伊斯兰黄金时代,建立一个“由多个国家组成的伊斯兰哈里发帝国”,囊括中东、北非、亚洲和高加索区域,甚至历史上曾由穆斯林统治的部分欧洲地区”。
(1)Haqqani network为哈卡尼网络组织,阿富汗反政府武装。虔诚军(Lashkar-e-Taiba)与巴情报部门有联系。
[2]Harleen Gambhir.ISIS in the Afghanistan”,Institute in the Study of War[EB/OL].http://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/harleen-gambhir,2016-03-01.
[3]Ban Ki moon warns against ISIS spread in South Asia[EB/OL].Economic Times,2016-02-10,2016,http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2016-02-10/news/70509737_1_isil-secretary-general-ban-ki-moon-south-asia,2016-03-04.
[4]Khuram Iqbal.Advent of the IS:A Perspective from Pakistan[A].Asian Conflicts Report:The Geopolitics of Extremism:ISIS in Asia a publication by the Geneva Center for Security Policy(GCSP)[R].Aug 2015.
[5]Edwin Mora.ISIS Expands into Khorasan Territory:Af-Pak,India Region[EB/OL].http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/01/29/isis-expands-into-khorasan-territory-af-pak-india-region/,2016-03-08.
[6]India alert to ISIS threat,says Rajnath Singh,a day after Home ministry warns of terror attacks[N].The Times of India,Nov 17.
[7]Lisa Curtis.Combatting the ISIS Foreign Fighter Pipeline:A Global Approach[R].The Heritage Foundation,Special Report#180 on Terrorism,January 6 2016,http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/01/combatting-the-isis-foreign-fighter-pipeline-a-global-approach,2016-03-07.
[8]Michael Kaplan.ISIS Spreads To Bangladesh?Islamic State Group Claims New Leader Appointed In South Asia Amid Heightened International Terror[N].International Business Times,2015-11-23,http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-spreads-bangladesh-islamic-state-group-claims-new-leader-appointedsouth-asia-2196504,2016-03-08.
[9]20 Hostages Killed in'Isil'Attack on Dhaka Restaurant Popular with Foreigners[N].The Telegraph,2016-07-02,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/01/gunmen-attack-restaurant-in-diplomatic-quarter-of-bangladeshi-ca/,2016-07-04.
[10]Priyanka Boghani.ISIS is in Afghanistan,But Who Are They Really?[EB/OL].PBS,http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/isis-is-in-afghanistan-but-who-are-they-really/,2016-03-01.
[11]Michael Kugelman.How isis could become a potent force in south asia[EB/OL].Foreign Policy,2015-02-20,http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/20/how-isis-could-become-apotent-force-in-south-asia/,2016-03-09.
[12]Benjamin Bahney,Patrick B.Johnston,.To Defeat ISIS,Focus on Its Real Sources of Strength[EB/OL].The National Interest,2015-11-04,http://nationalinterest.org/feature/defeat-isis-focus-its-real-sources-strength-14510?page=show,2016-03-08.
[13]田文林.“伊斯兰国”兴起与美国的中东战略[J].现代国际关系,2014,(10).
[14]Thomas F.Lynch III.The Impact of ISIS on Global Salafism and South Asian Jihad[EB/OL].http://www.hudson.org/research/11608-the-impact-of-isis-on-global-salafismand-south-asian-jihad,2016-01-30.
[15]John Hayward.Al Qaeda Leader Declares War Against ISIS,Accuses Al-Baghdadi of“Sedition”[EB/OL].The Breitbart,2015-09-10,http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/09/10/al-qaeda-leader-declares-war-against-isisaccuses-al-baghdadi-of-sedition/,2016-03-26.
[16]Terrorists VS terrorists:ISIS in“direct rivalry with Taliban in Afghanistan”UN says29[EB/OL].Dec,2015,https://www.rt.com/news/327348-taliban-isis-confrontation-afghanistan/,2016-03-14.
[17]Seth G.Jones.Expanding the Caliphate:ISIS'South Asia Strategy[EB/OL].Foreign Affairs,2015-06-11,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2015-06-11/expanding-caliphate,2016-03-01.
[18]Andrew Tilghman.ISIS in Afghanistan:U.S.forces OK'd to attack emerging offshoot[EB/OL].Military Times,2016-01-20,http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2016/01/20/us-military-afghanistan-gets-green-light-targeting-islamic-state-offshoot/79067120/,2016-03-01.
[19]Farhan Bokhari and Victor Mallet.Pakistan Lauches Crackdown on ISIS[EB/OL].Financial Times,2015-11-30,http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/edbd7206-aed7-11e5-993bc425a3d2b65a.html#axzz44a Hoy El1,2016-04-01.
[20]Arif Rafiq.What Happened to ISIS's Afghanistan-Pakistan Province?[J].The Diplomat,2016-02-02,http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/what-happened-to-isiss-afghanistanpakistan-province/,2016-03-14.
[21]Suba Chandran.The Islamic State:India Isn’t Alarmed,yet[A].Asian Conflicts Reports:the Geopolitics of Extremism:ISIS in Asia[R].Aug 2015,http:www.gcsp.ch/download/4450/104352,2016-03-07.
[22]ISIS does not consider Indians good fighter[N].The Times of India,2015-11-23,http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ISIS-does-not-consider-Indians-good-fighter/articleshow/49894644.cms,2016-03-27.
[23]The National Security Strategy[EB/OL].The White House,Feb,2015,https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf,2016-03-07.
[24]Obama authorizes US troops to target new ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan[EB/OL].2016-01-21,https://www.rt.com/usa/329638-obama-usa-troops-isis-afghanistan/,2016-03-22.
[25]U.S.airstrikes target ISIS in Afghanistan[EB/OL].CBS News,2016-02-11,http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-airstrikes-target-isis-in-afghanistan/,2016-03-11.
[26]Barbara Starr,Ryan Browne and Laura Koran.Pentagon:ISIS finance minister killed[EB/OL].CNN,2016-03-25,http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politics/isis-no-2-in-command-killed-u-s-believes/index.html,2016-03-25.
[27]Thomas Joscelyn.Islamic State's“Khorasan province”threatens Taliban in latest video[EB/OL].The Long War Journal,2015-06-04,http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/06/islamic-states-khorasan-province-threatens-taliban-inlatest-video.php,2016-04-03.
(1)萨拉菲主义是极端的逊尼派伊斯兰政治与宗教运动,自称致力于恢复伊斯兰黄金时代,建立一个“由多个国家组成的伊斯兰哈里发帝国”,囊括中东、北非、亚洲和高加索区域,甚至历史上曾由穆斯林统治的部分欧洲地区”。
(1)Haqqani network为哈卡尼网络组织,阿富汗反政府武装。虔诚军(Lashkar-e-Taiba)与巴情报部门有联系。