劳动力转移、化肥过度使用与面源污染
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摘要
为研究农村劳动力由农业向非农产业转移对环境造成的影响,以当前最主要的农业污染源——化肥为例,基于2004—2013年中国31省的面板数据,运用STIRPAT模型考察了农村劳动力转移与化肥面源污染排放的关系。结果表明:劳动力非农转移促使农户在农业生产中投入更多的化肥,加重了中国化肥施用的面源污染;并且由于化肥面源污染排放增加速度高于劳动力转移速度,未来劳动力转移会继续放大化肥面源污染物排放量的增加。基于此,本研究认为对化肥面源污染进行有效控制,除应用污染防治技术外,还应当充分考虑到农村劳动力转移的影响;政府的农业治污减排政策应适应农业劳动力日益稀缺的现实,以确保政策"落地"。
To explore the effect of rural labor transfer on environment in China,which have been paid less attention compared with that on economics.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces of China over the year of 2004—2013,the relationship between rural labor transfer and non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application was analyzed by using the STIRPAT model.The results show that:The rural labor transferring has positive impacts on the fertilizer input non-point source pollution,and along with the rural labor transferring,the intensity of fertilizer input nonpoint source pollution subsequently increases;Because of the increase rate of fertilizer input the non-point source pollution was higher than that of rural labor transfer itself,and the rural labor transferring would continue to amplify the increase of fertilizer input non-point source pollution.Based on this study,we suggested that more attention needs to be paid on the consequences of rural labor transfer in addition to application of non-point source pollution management technology.
To explore the effect of rural labor transfer on environment in China,which have been paid less attention compared with that on economics.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces of China over the year of 2004—2013,the relationship between rural labor transfer and non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application was analyzed by using the STIRPAT model.The results show that:The rural labor transferring has positive impacts on the fertilizer input non-point source pollution,and along with the rural labor transferring,the intensity of fertilizer input nonpoint source pollution subsequently increases;Because of the increase rate of fertilizer input the non-point source pollution was higher than that of rural labor transfer itself,and the rural labor transferring would continue to amplify the increase of fertilizer input non-point source pollution.Based on this study,we suggested that more attention needs to be paid on the consequences of rural labor transfer in addition to application of non-point source pollution management technology.
引文
[1]张利庠,彭辉,靳兴初.不同阶段化肥施用量对我国粮食产量的影响分析:基于1952—2006年30个省份的面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2008(4):85-94Zhang L Y,Peng H,Jin X C.Analysis on the impact of agricultural fertilizer application on China’s grain output at different stages:Based on panel data for 30provinces in 1952—2006[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2008(4):85-94(in Chinese)
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[3]全为民,严力蛟.农业面源污染对水体富营养化的影响及其防治措施[J].生态学报,2002,22(3):291-299Quan W M,Yan L J.Effects of agricultural non-point source pollution on eutrophication of Water Body and its control measure[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2002,22(3):291-299(in Chinese)
[4]向平安,周燕,黄璜,刘碧琼,黄兴国.化肥非点源污染控制的绿税措施模拟研究[J].湖南农业大学学报:自然科学版,2007,33(3):328-332Xiang P A,Zhou Y,Huang H,Liu B Q,Huang X G.Simulated study of green tax prompting for controlling fertilizer non-point sources pollution[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University:Natural Sciences,2007,33(3):328-332(in Chinese)
[5]华春林,陆迁,姜雅莉,理查德·伍德沃德.农业教育培训项目对减少农业面源污染的影响效果研究:基于倾向评分匹配方法[J].农业技术经济,2013(4):83-92Hua C L,Lu Q,Jiang Y L,Richard T W.The effects of agricultural education and training projects on reducing agricultural non-point source pollution:Based on the propensity score matching method[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2013(4):83-92(in Chinese)
[6]Zhu Z L,Chen D L.Nitrogen fertilizer use in ChinaContributions to food production,impacts on the environment and best management strategies[J].Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,2002,63(2-3):117-127
[7]Jepson W.A disappearing biome?Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna[J].The Geographical Journal,2005,171(2):99-111
[8]何浩然,张林秀,李强.农民施肥行为及农业面源污染研究[J].农业技术经济,2006(6):2-10He H R,Zhang L X,Li Q.Rational fertilization and reduction of large-scale farmland pollution by rationalized fertilizer usage[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2006(6):2-10(in Chinese)
[9]仇焕广,栾昊,李瑾,汪阳洁.风险规避对农户化肥过量施用行为的影响[J].中国农村经济,2014(3):85-96Qiu H G,Luan H,Li J,Wang Y J.The impacts of risk aversion on farmer’s households’behavior of overusing chemical fertilizers[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014(3):85-96(in Chinese)
[10]史常亮,朱俊峰,栾江.农户化肥施用技术效率及其影响因素分析:基于4省水稻种植户的调查数据[J].农林经济管理学报,2015,14(3):234-242Shi C L,Zhu J F,Luan J.Fertilizing technical efficiency and its determinants:based on rice farmers’data in four provinces[J].Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management,2015,14(3):234-242(in Chinese)
[11]Garcia-Barrio R,García-Barrios L.Environmental and technological degradation in peasant agriculture:a consequence of development in Mexico[J].World Development,1990,18(11):1569-1585
[12]冯孝杰,魏朝富,谢德体,张彭成.农户经营行为的农业面源污染效应及模型分析[J].中国农学通报,2005,21(12):354-358Feng X J,Wei C F,Xie D L,Zhang P C.Effects of farm household’s management behavior upon nonpoint pollution of agriculture and model analysis[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2005,21(12):354-358(in Chinese)
[13]张成玉,肖海峰.我国测土配方施肥技术增收节支效果研究:基于江苏、吉林两省的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2009(3):44-51Zhang C Y,Xiao H F.Study on the income increasing and cost reducing effect of China’s soil testing fertilization technology:Empirical analysis based on Jiangsu and Jilin[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2009(3):44-51(in Chinese)
[14]牛亮云.农业化石能源投入与农业劳动力转移关系研究[J].经济经纬,2014,31(5):38-42Niu L Y.A study on the relationship between agricultural fossil energy input and labor transfer[J].Economic Survey,2014,31(5):38-42(in Chinese)
[15]饶静,纪晓婷.微观视角下的我国农业面源污染治理困境分析[J].农业技术经济,2011(12):11-16Rao J,Ji X T.Analysis on the dilemma of non-point source agricultural pollution control in China under the microscopic view[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2011(12):11-16(in Chinese)
[16]陈华东,施国庆.基于农村劳动力转移的农业面源污染模型分析[J].科技进步与对策,2009(2):8-11Chen H D,Shi G Q.Study on the non-point pollution problems of agriculture based on the transformation ofrural labor[J].Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2009(2):8-11(in Chinese)
[17]段华平,刘德进,杨国红,董迎雯.基于清单分析的农业面源污染源强计算方法[J].环境科学与管理,2009,34(12):58-61Duan H P,Liu D J,Yang G H,Dong Y W.The calculation method of agricultural non-point source pollution source strength based on inventory analysis[J].Environmental Science and Management,2009,34(12):58-61(in Chinese)
[18]赖斯芸.非点源污染调查评估方法及其应用研究[D].北京:清华大学,2004Lai S Y.Study on non-point sources pollution investigation and evaluation method and its application[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2004(in Chinese)
[19]童玉芬.中国农村劳动力非农化转移规模估算及其变动过程分析[J].人口研究,2010(5):68-75Tong Y F.Dynamics of non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force in China[J].Population Research,2010(5):68-75(in Chinese)
[20]Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review,1994(1):277-300
[21]梁流涛,曲福田,冯淑怡.经济发展与农业面源污染:分解模型与实证研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(10):1369-1374Liang L T,Qu F T,Feng S Y.Economic development and Agricultural non-point source pollution:Decomposition model and empirical analysis[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(10):1369-1374(in Chinese)
[22]葛继红,周曙东.农业面源污染的经济影响因素分析:基于1978—2009年的江苏省数据[J].中国农村经济,2011(5):72-81Ge J H,Zhou S D.An analysis of the economic determinants to agricultural non-point source pollution:Based on the data of1978—2009in Jiangsu Province[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2011(5):72-81(in Chinese)
[23]李太平,张锋,胡浩.中国化肥面源污染EKC验证及其驱动因素[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):118-123Li T P,Zhang F,Hu H.Authentication of the Kuznets curve in Agriculture non-point source pollution and its driver analysis[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(11):118-123(in Chinese)
[24]张卫峰,季秀,马骥,王雁峰,马文奇,张福锁.中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析Ⅲ:人口、经济、技术、政策[J].资源科学,2008,30(2):213-220Zhang W F,Ji X,Ma J,Wang Y F,Ma W Q,Zhang F S.An analysis on driving force of fertilizer demand of ChinaⅢ:Population,economy,technology and policy resources science[J].Resources Science,2008,30(2):213-220(in Chinese)
[25]杜江,罗珺.农业经济增长与污染性要素投入:基于简约式及结构式模型的实证分析[J].经济评论,2013(3):56-65Du J,Luo J.Agricultural economic growth and the application of polluting factors:Empirical study based on reduced vs structural form model[J].Economic Review,2013(3):56-65(in Chinese)
[26]李家康,林葆,梁国庆,沈桂芹.对我国化肥使用前景的剖析[J].磷肥与复肥,2001,16(2):1-5Li J K,Lin B,Liang G Q,Shen G Q.Dissecting the perspectives of fertilizer application in China[J].Phosphate&Compound Fertilizer,2001,16(2):1-5(in Chinese)
① Ebenstein A,Zhang J,McMillan M S,Chen K.Chemical fertilizer and migration in China[R].NBER Working Paper,No.17245,2011
[2]罗小娟,冯淑怡,石晓平,曲福田.太湖流域农户环境友好型技术采纳行为及其环境和经济效应评价:以测土配方施肥技术为例[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(11):1891-1902Luo X J,Feng S Y,Shi X P,Qu F T.Farm households’adoption behavior of environment friendly technology and the evaluation of their environmental and economic effects in Tai Lake basin:Taking formula fertilization by soil testing technology as an example[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2013,28(11):1891-1902(in Chinese)
[3]全为民,严力蛟.农业面源污染对水体富营养化的影响及其防治措施[J].生态学报,2002,22(3):291-299Quan W M,Yan L J.Effects of agricultural non-point source pollution on eutrophication of Water Body and its control measure[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2002,22(3):291-299(in Chinese)
[4]向平安,周燕,黄璜,刘碧琼,黄兴国.化肥非点源污染控制的绿税措施模拟研究[J].湖南农业大学学报:自然科学版,2007,33(3):328-332Xiang P A,Zhou Y,Huang H,Liu B Q,Huang X G.Simulated study of green tax prompting for controlling fertilizer non-point sources pollution[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University:Natural Sciences,2007,33(3):328-332(in Chinese)
[5]华春林,陆迁,姜雅莉,理查德·伍德沃德.农业教育培训项目对减少农业面源污染的影响效果研究:基于倾向评分匹配方法[J].农业技术经济,2013(4):83-92Hua C L,Lu Q,Jiang Y L,Richard T W.The effects of agricultural education and training projects on reducing agricultural non-point source pollution:Based on the propensity score matching method[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2013(4):83-92(in Chinese)
[6]Zhu Z L,Chen D L.Nitrogen fertilizer use in ChinaContributions to food production,impacts on the environment and best management strategies[J].Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,2002,63(2-3):117-127
[7]Jepson W.A disappearing biome?Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna[J].The Geographical Journal,2005,171(2):99-111
[8]何浩然,张林秀,李强.农民施肥行为及农业面源污染研究[J].农业技术经济,2006(6):2-10He H R,Zhang L X,Li Q.Rational fertilization and reduction of large-scale farmland pollution by rationalized fertilizer usage[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2006(6):2-10(in Chinese)
[9]仇焕广,栾昊,李瑾,汪阳洁.风险规避对农户化肥过量施用行为的影响[J].中国农村经济,2014(3):85-96Qiu H G,Luan H,Li J,Wang Y J.The impacts of risk aversion on farmer’s households’behavior of overusing chemical fertilizers[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014(3):85-96(in Chinese)
[10]史常亮,朱俊峰,栾江.农户化肥施用技术效率及其影响因素分析:基于4省水稻种植户的调查数据[J].农林经济管理学报,2015,14(3):234-242Shi C L,Zhu J F,Luan J.Fertilizing technical efficiency and its determinants:based on rice farmers’data in four provinces[J].Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management,2015,14(3):234-242(in Chinese)
[11]Garcia-Barrio R,García-Barrios L.Environmental and technological degradation in peasant agriculture:a consequence of development in Mexico[J].World Development,1990,18(11):1569-1585
[12]冯孝杰,魏朝富,谢德体,张彭成.农户经营行为的农业面源污染效应及模型分析[J].中国农学通报,2005,21(12):354-358Feng X J,Wei C F,Xie D L,Zhang P C.Effects of farm household’s management behavior upon nonpoint pollution of agriculture and model analysis[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2005,21(12):354-358(in Chinese)
[13]张成玉,肖海峰.我国测土配方施肥技术增收节支效果研究:基于江苏、吉林两省的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2009(3):44-51Zhang C Y,Xiao H F.Study on the income increasing and cost reducing effect of China’s soil testing fertilization technology:Empirical analysis based on Jiangsu and Jilin[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2009(3):44-51(in Chinese)
[14]牛亮云.农业化石能源投入与农业劳动力转移关系研究[J].经济经纬,2014,31(5):38-42Niu L Y.A study on the relationship between agricultural fossil energy input and labor transfer[J].Economic Survey,2014,31(5):38-42(in Chinese)
[15]饶静,纪晓婷.微观视角下的我国农业面源污染治理困境分析[J].农业技术经济,2011(12):11-16Rao J,Ji X T.Analysis on the dilemma of non-point source agricultural pollution control in China under the microscopic view[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2011(12):11-16(in Chinese)
[16]陈华东,施国庆.基于农村劳动力转移的农业面源污染模型分析[J].科技进步与对策,2009(2):8-11Chen H D,Shi G Q.Study on the non-point pollution problems of agriculture based on the transformation ofrural labor[J].Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2009(2):8-11(in Chinese)
[17]段华平,刘德进,杨国红,董迎雯.基于清单分析的农业面源污染源强计算方法[J].环境科学与管理,2009,34(12):58-61Duan H P,Liu D J,Yang G H,Dong Y W.The calculation method of agricultural non-point source pollution source strength based on inventory analysis[J].Environmental Science and Management,2009,34(12):58-61(in Chinese)
[18]赖斯芸.非点源污染调查评估方法及其应用研究[D].北京:清华大学,2004Lai S Y.Study on non-point sources pollution investigation and evaluation method and its application[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2004(in Chinese)
[19]童玉芬.中国农村劳动力非农化转移规模估算及其变动过程分析[J].人口研究,2010(5):68-75Tong Y F.Dynamics of non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force in China[J].Population Research,2010(5):68-75(in Chinese)
[20]Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review,1994(1):277-300
[21]梁流涛,曲福田,冯淑怡.经济发展与农业面源污染:分解模型与实证研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(10):1369-1374Liang L T,Qu F T,Feng S Y.Economic development and Agricultural non-point source pollution:Decomposition model and empirical analysis[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(10):1369-1374(in Chinese)
[22]葛继红,周曙东.农业面源污染的经济影响因素分析:基于1978—2009年的江苏省数据[J].中国农村经济,2011(5):72-81Ge J H,Zhou S D.An analysis of the economic determinants to agricultural non-point source pollution:Based on the data of1978—2009in Jiangsu Province[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2011(5):72-81(in Chinese)
[23]李太平,张锋,胡浩.中国化肥面源污染EKC验证及其驱动因素[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):118-123Li T P,Zhang F,Hu H.Authentication of the Kuznets curve in Agriculture non-point source pollution and its driver analysis[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(11):118-123(in Chinese)
[24]张卫峰,季秀,马骥,王雁峰,马文奇,张福锁.中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析Ⅲ:人口、经济、技术、政策[J].资源科学,2008,30(2):213-220Zhang W F,Ji X,Ma J,Wang Y F,Ma W Q,Zhang F S.An analysis on driving force of fertilizer demand of ChinaⅢ:Population,economy,technology and policy resources science[J].Resources Science,2008,30(2):213-220(in Chinese)
[25]杜江,罗珺.农业经济增长与污染性要素投入:基于简约式及结构式模型的实证分析[J].经济评论,2013(3):56-65Du J,Luo J.Agricultural economic growth and the application of polluting factors:Empirical study based on reduced vs structural form model[J].Economic Review,2013(3):56-65(in Chinese)
[26]李家康,林葆,梁国庆,沈桂芹.对我国化肥使用前景的剖析[J].磷肥与复肥,2001,16(2):1-5Li J K,Lin B,Liang G Q,Shen G Q.Dissecting the perspectives of fertilizer application in China[J].Phosphate&Compound Fertilizer,2001,16(2):1-5(in Chinese)
① Ebenstein A,Zhang J,McMillan M S,Chen K.Chemical fertilizer and migration in China[R].NBER Working Paper,No.17245,2011