工业园区碳排放的影响因素——基于国家低碳工业园区试点的研究
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摘要
工业是中国能源消耗和碳排放的主要领域,工业园区是中国工业集聚发展的主要形式之一。为促进工业园区的低碳转型,工业和信息化部、国家发展和改革委员会于2013年联合组织开展国家低碳工业园区试点工作。作者选取参与试点工作的18家工业园区为样本,采用STIRPAT模型分析了产业结构、能源结构、科研投入等因素对工业园区碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,园区生产总值是影响碳排放的重要因素,且二者呈现倒U型关系,证明了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在;能源强度与园区碳排放显著正相关;产业结构和科研投入对园区碳排放影响也十分显著,且均表现为负相关关系;可再生能源的使用对减少园区碳排放的效果还不明显。研究结果表明应采用差异化的低碳发展路径来实现工业园区的低碳发展。
Industry is the major sector of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China,and industrial park is one of the main forms of industrial agglomeration development in China. To promote the low-carbon transformation of industrial parks,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly launched the national low-carbon industrial park pilot programme in 2013. The authors select 18 pilot industrial parks and adopt the STIRPAT model to evaluate the effect of several influencing factors such as industrial structure,energy structure and R&D input on the industrial park carbon emissions. The results show that the GDP of the industrial parks is one of the most important factors influencing the carbon emissions and there exists a 'reverse U shape'relationship between GDP and carbon emissions of industrial parks,verifying the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. The energy intensity has a significant positive correlation to the carbon emissions,and the industrial structure and R&D input also have significant negative influences on carbon emissions. Meanwhile,renewable energy does not show an obvious effect in reducing carbon emissions. It is suggested to adopt the differentiated path in order to achieve the low-carbon development.
Industry is the major sector of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China,and industrial park is one of the main forms of industrial agglomeration development in China. To promote the low-carbon transformation of industrial parks,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly launched the national low-carbon industrial park pilot programme in 2013. The authors select 18 pilot industrial parks and adopt the STIRPAT model to evaluate the effect of several influencing factors such as industrial structure,energy structure and R&D input on the industrial park carbon emissions. The results show that the GDP of the industrial parks is one of the most important factors influencing the carbon emissions and there exists a 'reverse U shape'relationship between GDP and carbon emissions of industrial parks,verifying the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. The energy intensity has a significant positive correlation to the carbon emissions,and the industrial structure and R&D input also have significant negative influences on carbon emissions. Meanwhile,renewable energy does not show an obvious effect in reducing carbon emissions. It is suggested to adopt the differentiated path in order to achieve the low-carbon development.
引文
陈彬、杨维思(2017):《产业园区碳排放核算方法研究》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第3期,第1~10页。
陈吕军、田金平、赵远(2009):《杭州湾精细化工园区碳的物质流分析研究》,《环境污染与防治》第12期,第80~83页。
何小钢、张耀辉(2012):《中国工业碳排放影响因素与CKC重组效应---基于STIRPAT模型的分行业动态面板数据实证研究》,《中国工业经济》第1期,第26~35页。
胡振宇(2011):《评价指标体系引导下的南京紫东低碳园区规划设计优化研究》,《现代城市研究》第12期,第44~48、66页。
可持续发展协会(2012):《低碳园区发展指南》,http://www.iscchina.org/Article/detail/id/265.html[2017-06-23]。
李靖、魏后凯(2007):《基于产业链的中国工业园区集群化战略》,《经济经纬》第2期,第68~71页。
李珀松、冯昱、王天天(2014):《中国低碳产业园区的实践与发展模式选择》,《生态经济》第2期,第143~146页。
林伯强、姚昕、刘希颖(2010):《节能和碳排放约束下的中国能源结构战略调整》,《中国社会科学》第1期,第58~71页。
吕斌、康艳兵、赵盟(2015):《推进国家低碳工业园区试点创建的思考与建议》,《中国经贸导刊》第7期,第50~54页。
邱庆全、李爽、夏青(2017):《中国可再生能源消费与能源碳排放影响关系研究》,《生态经济》第2期,第19~23页。
伍肆、周宁、王松林(2013):《基于模糊评价集的工业园区低碳评价体系构建》,《中国人口·资源与环境》,第23期,第276~279页。
禹湘(2017):《国家低碳工业园区建设实践与创新》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,第40~43页。
张洪波、陶春晖、庞春雨等(2010):《基于低碳经济模式的工业园区规划探讨》,《山西建筑》第27期,第3~4页。
赵忠秀、王苒、Hinrich Voss等(2013):《基于经典环境库兹涅茨模型的中国碳排放拐点预测》,《财贸经济》第10期,第81~88页。
Bai,L.,Q.Qiao and Y.Yao,et al.(2014),“Insights on the Development Progress of National Demonstration Eco-industrial Parks in China”,Journal of Cleaner Production,70(5),pp.4-14.
Ehrlich,P.R.and J.P.Holdren(1971),“Impact of Population Growth”,Science,171,pp.1212-1217.
Grossman,G.M.and A.B.Krueger(1995),“Economic Growth and the Environment”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,110(2),pp.353-377.
Liu,L.X.,B.Zhang and J.Bi,et al.(2012),“The Greenhouse Gas Mitigation of Industrial Parks in China:A Case Study of Suzhou Industrial Park”,Energy Policy,46(3),pp.301-307.
Liu,Z.,M.Adams and R.P.Cote,et al.(2017),“Comprehensive Development of Industrial Symbiosis for the Response of Greenhouse Gases Emission Mitigation:Challenges and Opportunities in China”,Energy Policy,102,pp.88-95.
Lu,Y.,B.Chen and K.S.Feng,et al.(2015),“Ecological Network Analysis for Carbon Metabolism of Eco-industrial Parks:A Case Study of a Typical Eco-industrial Park in Beijing”,Environmental Science&Technology,49(12),pp.7254-7264.
Marshall,A.(1920),Principles of Economics,London:Macmillan and Co.,Ltd.
Porter,M.E.(1998),“Clusters and the New Economics of Competition”,Harvard Business Review,76(6),pp.77-90.
Shafik,N.and S.Bandyopadhyay(1992),“Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Time Series and Cross-country Evidence”,Policy Research Working Paper.
Starfelt,F.and J.Y.Yan(2008),“Case Study of Energy Systems with Gas Turbine Cogeneration Technology for an Eco-industrial Park”,International Journal of Energy Research,32(12),pp.1128-1135.
York,R.,A.R.Eugene and D.Thomas(2003),“STIRPAT,IPAT and IMPACT:Analytic Tools for Unpacking the Driving Forces of Environmental Impacts”,Ecological Economics,46(3),pp.351-365.
Zhang H,D.Liang and H.Li(2013),“Analysis of Low-carbon Industrial Symbiosis Technology for Carbon Mitigation in a Chinese Iron/Steel Industrial Park:A Case Study with Carbon Flow Analysis”,Energy Policy,61(10),pp.1400-1411.
(1)资料来源:《中国统计年鉴—2016》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(2)资料来源:国家发展和改革委员会、国土资源部、建设部(2007),《中国开发区审核公告目录2006》,http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbgg/200704/W020070406535176330304.pdf[2017-05-22]。
(1)高耗能园区、综合园区和低耗能园区分别按照园区六大高耗能行业能源消耗占园区总能源消耗的比重高于或等于65%、低于65%且高于或等于10%,以及小于10%的标准划分。
(2)样本园区包括天津滨海高新技术产业开发区华苑科技园、内蒙古自治区鄂托克经济开发区、内蒙古自治区赤峰红山经济开发区、辽宁沈阳经济技术开发区、吉林吉林化学工业循环经济示范园区、吉林长春经济技术开发区、江苏宜兴环保科技工业园、上海金桥经济技术开发区、江苏苏州工业园区、浙江嘉兴秀洲工业园区、安徽合肥经济技术开发区、安徽池州经济技术开发区、江西南昌国家高新技术产业开发区、河南洛阳国家高新技术产业开发区、重庆璧山工业园区、四川达州经济开发区、贵州遵义经济技术开发区、宁夏回族自治区石嘴山高新技术产业开发区。
陈吕军、田金平、赵远(2009):《杭州湾精细化工园区碳的物质流分析研究》,《环境污染与防治》第12期,第80~83页。
何小钢、张耀辉(2012):《中国工业碳排放影响因素与CKC重组效应---基于STIRPAT模型的分行业动态面板数据实证研究》,《中国工业经济》第1期,第26~35页。
胡振宇(2011):《评价指标体系引导下的南京紫东低碳园区规划设计优化研究》,《现代城市研究》第12期,第44~48、66页。
可持续发展协会(2012):《低碳园区发展指南》,http://www.iscchina.org/Article/detail/id/265.html[2017-06-23]。
李靖、魏后凯(2007):《基于产业链的中国工业园区集群化战略》,《经济经纬》第2期,第68~71页。
李珀松、冯昱、王天天(2014):《中国低碳产业园区的实践与发展模式选择》,《生态经济》第2期,第143~146页。
林伯强、姚昕、刘希颖(2010):《节能和碳排放约束下的中国能源结构战略调整》,《中国社会科学》第1期,第58~71页。
吕斌、康艳兵、赵盟(2015):《推进国家低碳工业园区试点创建的思考与建议》,《中国经贸导刊》第7期,第50~54页。
邱庆全、李爽、夏青(2017):《中国可再生能源消费与能源碳排放影响关系研究》,《生态经济》第2期,第19~23页。
伍肆、周宁、王松林(2013):《基于模糊评价集的工业园区低碳评价体系构建》,《中国人口·资源与环境》,第23期,第276~279页。
禹湘(2017):《国家低碳工业园区建设实践与创新》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,第40~43页。
张洪波、陶春晖、庞春雨等(2010):《基于低碳经济模式的工业园区规划探讨》,《山西建筑》第27期,第3~4页。
赵忠秀、王苒、Hinrich Voss等(2013):《基于经典环境库兹涅茨模型的中国碳排放拐点预测》,《财贸经济》第10期,第81~88页。
Bai,L.,Q.Qiao and Y.Yao,et al.(2014),“Insights on the Development Progress of National Demonstration Eco-industrial Parks in China”,Journal of Cleaner Production,70(5),pp.4-14.
Ehrlich,P.R.and J.P.Holdren(1971),“Impact of Population Growth”,Science,171,pp.1212-1217.
Grossman,G.M.and A.B.Krueger(1995),“Economic Growth and the Environment”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,110(2),pp.353-377.
Liu,L.X.,B.Zhang and J.Bi,et al.(2012),“The Greenhouse Gas Mitigation of Industrial Parks in China:A Case Study of Suzhou Industrial Park”,Energy Policy,46(3),pp.301-307.
Liu,Z.,M.Adams and R.P.Cote,et al.(2017),“Comprehensive Development of Industrial Symbiosis for the Response of Greenhouse Gases Emission Mitigation:Challenges and Opportunities in China”,Energy Policy,102,pp.88-95.
Lu,Y.,B.Chen and K.S.Feng,et al.(2015),“Ecological Network Analysis for Carbon Metabolism of Eco-industrial Parks:A Case Study of a Typical Eco-industrial Park in Beijing”,Environmental Science&Technology,49(12),pp.7254-7264.
Marshall,A.(1920),Principles of Economics,London:Macmillan and Co.,Ltd.
Porter,M.E.(1998),“Clusters and the New Economics of Competition”,Harvard Business Review,76(6),pp.77-90.
Shafik,N.and S.Bandyopadhyay(1992),“Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Time Series and Cross-country Evidence”,Policy Research Working Paper.
Starfelt,F.and J.Y.Yan(2008),“Case Study of Energy Systems with Gas Turbine Cogeneration Technology for an Eco-industrial Park”,International Journal of Energy Research,32(12),pp.1128-1135.
York,R.,A.R.Eugene and D.Thomas(2003),“STIRPAT,IPAT and IMPACT:Analytic Tools for Unpacking the Driving Forces of Environmental Impacts”,Ecological Economics,46(3),pp.351-365.
Zhang H,D.Liang and H.Li(2013),“Analysis of Low-carbon Industrial Symbiosis Technology for Carbon Mitigation in a Chinese Iron/Steel Industrial Park:A Case Study with Carbon Flow Analysis”,Energy Policy,61(10),pp.1400-1411.
(1)资料来源:《中国统计年鉴—2016》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(2)资料来源:国家发展和改革委员会、国土资源部、建设部(2007),《中国开发区审核公告目录2006》,http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbgg/200704/W020070406535176330304.pdf[2017-05-22]。
(1)高耗能园区、综合园区和低耗能园区分别按照园区六大高耗能行业能源消耗占园区总能源消耗的比重高于或等于65%、低于65%且高于或等于10%,以及小于10%的标准划分。
(2)样本园区包括天津滨海高新技术产业开发区华苑科技园、内蒙古自治区鄂托克经济开发区、内蒙古自治区赤峰红山经济开发区、辽宁沈阳经济技术开发区、吉林吉林化学工业循环经济示范园区、吉林长春经济技术开发区、江苏宜兴环保科技工业园、上海金桥经济技术开发区、江苏苏州工业园区、浙江嘉兴秀洲工业园区、安徽合肥经济技术开发区、安徽池州经济技术开发区、江西南昌国家高新技术产业开发区、河南洛阳国家高新技术产业开发区、重庆璧山工业园区、四川达州经济开发区、贵州遵义经济技术开发区、宁夏回族自治区石嘴山高新技术产业开发区。