我国马铃薯生产格局变化特征及原因分析
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摘要
[目的]在马铃薯主粮化战略提出和马铃薯产业需求快速增长的背景下,研究我国马铃薯生产、消费情况,剖析马铃薯生产格局变化特征及影响因素,为优化马铃薯生产布局提出建议。[方法]利用2000年以来全国及分省马铃薯生产、消费数据,通过统计描述和对比分析对马铃薯生产形势从总量特征和区域特征两方面进行分析,计算单产和种植面积贡献率,并且从成本收益角度对马铃薯生产格局变动及优化布局作出解释。[结果]我国马铃薯种植面积从2000年的472. 3万hm2增加到2015年的551. 8万hm2,马铃薯产量从2000年的1 325. 5万t增长至2015年的1 897. 2万t。在这个过程中,马铃薯生产集中度不断提高,区域布局进一步优化,其中西南混作区逐渐成为马铃薯优势产区。[结论]马铃薯生产格局的变化既有消费需求的拉动,也有国家产业政策的支持,另外收益驱动和资源比较优势的发挥也是推动马铃薯生产格局变化的重要原因。未来为进一步促进马铃薯生产的健康发展,应重点结合各区域环境资源优势进行区域规划、降低脱毒种薯成本并加大良种推广力度。
Under the background of potato main grain strategy and rapid growth of potato industry demand,this research studies the potato production and consumption in China,analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of potato production pattern,so as to propose to optimize the potato production layout. Using the national and provincial potato production and consumption data since 2000,this research analyzed the potato production situation from the total and regional characteristics,and the yield per unit area and the planting area through adopting statistical description and comparative analysis. Moreover,it explained the changes in the potato production pattern and optimize the layout from the perspective of cost-benefit. Studies show that the area of potato planting in China has increased from 4. 723 million hectares in 2000 to 5. 518 million hectares in 2015,and potato production has increased from 13. 255 million tons in 2000 to 18. 972 million tons in 2015. In this process,the concentration of potato production has been continuously improved,and the regional layout has been further optimized. The southwest mixed farming area has gradually become a dominant potato producing area. Changes in the pattern of potato production are not only driven by consumer demand,but also by national industrial policies. In addition,the benefitsdriven and comparative advantage of resources are also important reasons for promoting changes in potato production patterns. In order to further promote the healthy development of potato production in the future,we should focus on regional planning,reduce the cost of virus-free seed potatoes and increase the promotion of improved varieties.
Under the background of potato main grain strategy and rapid growth of potato industry demand,this research studies the potato production and consumption in China,analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of potato production pattern,so as to propose to optimize the potato production layout. Using the national and provincial potato production and consumption data since 2000,this research analyzed the potato production situation from the total and regional characteristics,and the yield per unit area and the planting area through adopting statistical description and comparative analysis. Moreover,it explained the changes in the potato production pattern and optimize the layout from the perspective of cost-benefit. Studies show that the area of potato planting in China has increased from 4. 723 million hectares in 2000 to 5. 518 million hectares in 2015,and potato production has increased from 13. 255 million tons in 2000 to 18. 972 million tons in 2015. In this process,the concentration of potato production has been continuously improved,and the regional layout has been further optimized. The southwest mixed farming area has gradually become a dominant potato producing area. Changes in the pattern of potato production are not only driven by consumer demand,but also by national industrial policies. In addition,the benefitsdriven and comparative advantage of resources are also important reasons for promoting changes in potato production patterns. In order to further promote the healthy development of potato production in the future,we should focus on regional planning,reduce the cost of virus-free seed potatoes and increase the promotion of improved varieties.
引文
[1]金黎平,罗其友.我国马铃薯产业发展现状和展望.马铃薯产业与农村区域发展,2013.
[2]陈华宁.中国马铃薯产业发展现状及对策.世界农业,2008(8):13-15.
[3]谢从华.马铃薯产业的现状与发展.华中农业大学学报,2012(1):1-4.
[4]谢开云,屈冬玉,金黎平,等.中国马铃薯生产与世界先进国家的比较.世界农业,2008(5):35-41.
[5]米健,罗其友,高明杰,等.马铃薯中长期供求平衡研究.中国农业资源与区划,2015(3):27-34.
[6]王颖,梁淑敏,潘哲超,等.基于Solanum模型的云贵高原大春马铃薯潜在产量研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017(11):31-39.
[7]楚雪,王哲,韩业庭.从“洋芋”到“土豆”的文化融合———马铃薯跨文化传播现象研究.甘肃社会科学,2012(4):127-131.
[8]李勤志,冯中朝.我国马铃薯生产的区域优势分析及对策建议.安徽农业科学,2009,37(9):4301-4302.
[9]刘合光,谢思娜.中国马铃薯生产区域格局变化及其成因实证分析.农业经济与管理,2013(1):72-78.
[10]达存莹,岳云,贾秀苹.甘肃省马铃薯产业发展现状及主粮化发展分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016(3):38-42.
[11]杨亚东,罗其友,王道龙,等.中国马铃薯区域分布影响因素分析.中国农业资源与区划,2018(2):76-81.
[12]马云倩,郭燕枝,徐海泉,等.基于Logistic及文本分析的华北地下水漏斗区农户种植马铃薯意愿研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017(10):210-214.
[13]李辉尚,孔繁涛.马铃薯2016年市场分析及2017年市场预测.农产品市场周刊,2017(4):38-41.
[14]罗其友,刘洋,高明杰.我国马铃薯区域格局变化分析.马铃薯产业与粮食安全,2009.
[2]陈华宁.中国马铃薯产业发展现状及对策.世界农业,2008(8):13-15.
[3]谢从华.马铃薯产业的现状与发展.华中农业大学学报,2012(1):1-4.
[4]谢开云,屈冬玉,金黎平,等.中国马铃薯生产与世界先进国家的比较.世界农业,2008(5):35-41.
[5]米健,罗其友,高明杰,等.马铃薯中长期供求平衡研究.中国农业资源与区划,2015(3):27-34.
[6]王颖,梁淑敏,潘哲超,等.基于Solanum模型的云贵高原大春马铃薯潜在产量研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017(11):31-39.
[7]楚雪,王哲,韩业庭.从“洋芋”到“土豆”的文化融合———马铃薯跨文化传播现象研究.甘肃社会科学,2012(4):127-131.
[8]李勤志,冯中朝.我国马铃薯生产的区域优势分析及对策建议.安徽农业科学,2009,37(9):4301-4302.
[9]刘合光,谢思娜.中国马铃薯生产区域格局变化及其成因实证分析.农业经济与管理,2013(1):72-78.
[10]达存莹,岳云,贾秀苹.甘肃省马铃薯产业发展现状及主粮化发展分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016(3):38-42.
[11]杨亚东,罗其友,王道龙,等.中国马铃薯区域分布影响因素分析.中国农业资源与区划,2018(2):76-81.
[12]马云倩,郭燕枝,徐海泉,等.基于Logistic及文本分析的华北地下水漏斗区农户种植马铃薯意愿研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017(10):210-214.
[13]李辉尚,孔繁涛.马铃薯2016年市场分析及2017年市场预测.农产品市场周刊,2017(4):38-41.
[14]罗其友,刘洋,高明杰.我国马铃薯区域格局变化分析.马铃薯产业与粮食安全,2009.