云南鲜切花的节日效应研究——基于拍卖市场交易价格的实证分析
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摘要
"交易量大、价格波动大"是鲜切花节日交易的长期规律。处于信息劣势的花农若不能掌握鲜切花的交易规律,则会丧失高收益的交易时机。本文通过分析节日前后昆明国际花卉交易中心交易量最大的玫瑰、满天星、非洲菊三种鲜切花收益率的波动情况,发现拍市鲜切花节日交易规律:(1)节前收益率呈先升后降的倒"U"型变化,节前4-5天是高收益期,节前1-2天是低收益期;(2)节日前后效应截然相反,节前效应显著为正,节后效应为负;(3)节日之间效应差异较大,七夕节对玫瑰和满天星的价格拉动作用显著大于2·14和5·20,国庆节对非洲菊的价格拉动作用显著大于重阳节和清明节。基于上述研究结论,本文从信息化建设、产品组合发展、交易及物流模式创新等方面提出促进云南鲜切花产业发展的建议。
"The large volume of transactions and large price fluctuations"is the long-term law of fresh-cut flower festival transactions. If flower farmers who are in information disadvantages cannot grasp the trading rules of fresh-cut flowers, they will lose high-yield trading opportunities. By analyzing the fluctuations of the three fresh cut flower yields of roses, gypsophila and gerbera before and after the festival, this paper basically determines the trading rules:(1) pre-holiday yield The "U"type change of the first rise and then fall, the high-yield period is 4-5 days before the festival, and the low-yield period is 1-2 days before the festival;(2) The pre-holiday effect is significantly positive and the post-holiday effect is negative;(3) The price of the Qixi Festival on Rose and Gypsophila is significantly greater than that of 2·14 and 5.20, and the national holiday has a significant effect on the price of gerbera. More than the Double Ninth Festival and the Ching Ming Festival. Based on the above conclusions, the article proposes that information construction, product portfolio development and transaction and logistics model innovation.
"The large volume of transactions and large price fluctuations"is the long-term law of fresh-cut flower festival transactions. If flower farmers who are in information disadvantages cannot grasp the trading rules of fresh-cut flowers, they will lose high-yield trading opportunities. By analyzing the fluctuations of the three fresh cut flower yields of roses, gypsophila and gerbera before and after the festival, this paper basically determines the trading rules:(1) pre-holiday yield The "U"type change of the first rise and then fall, the high-yield period is 4-5 days before the festival, and the low-yield period is 1-2 days before the festival;(2) The pre-holiday effect is significantly positive and the post-holiday effect is negative;(3) The price of the Qixi Festival on Rose and Gypsophila is significantly greater than that of 2·14 and 5.20, and the national holiday has a significant effect on the price of gerbera. More than the Double Ninth Festival and the Ching Ming Festival. Based on the above conclusions, the article proposes that information construction, product portfolio development and transaction and logistics model innovation.
引文
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(1)由于KIFA不公布个交易日各种鲜切花交易数据,作者只能以节日所属交易周期的数据来描述节日交易情况,交易周期主要包括上月下旬和下月上旬,如2月下旬和3月上旬,日期不固定。
(2)每年国庆节我国各地都会举行庆祝活动,十月是金菊盛开之季,代表吉祥的菊花是政府购买的首选。
[2]仪垂林、刘淄.上海股市法定节日及传统节日效应的实证研究[J].财经科学,2005(5).
[3]毛学峰、曾寅初.我国生猪市场价格动态变动规律研究--基于月度价格非线性模型分析[J].农业技术经济,2009(3).
[4]Swinkels L,Van Vliet P.An anatomy of calendar effects[J].Journal of Asset Management,2012(4).
[5]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用(第2版)[M],北京:高等教育出版社,2014.
[6]汪彬.花卉拍卖市场的价格影响因素研究[J].中国商贸,2014(15).
[7]朱苗绘、秦开大.昆明花拍中心鲜切花价格指数的短期预测分析--基于ARMA-GARCH模型的实证分析[J].价格理论与实践,2016(6).
[8]秦开大、彭世广.昆明国际花卉市场价格波动实证研究--对昆明国际花卉拍卖市场价格波动的日历效应分析[J].价格理论与实践,2017(1).
[9]宋长鸣、李崇光、许军.法定节假日会加剧蔬菜价格波动吗[J].农业技术经济,2017(7).
[10]崔秀红、张江伟.蔬菜价格涨幅较大鸡蛋价格高位企稳--2018年1月北京市农产品批发价格指数点评[J].价格理论与实践,2018(2).
[11]巫伟峰、万忠.广东生猪价格波动研究--基于2005-2017年生猪价格时间序列分析[J].南方农村,2018(5).
(1)由于KIFA不公布个交易日各种鲜切花交易数据,作者只能以节日所属交易周期的数据来描述节日交易情况,交易周期主要包括上月下旬和下月上旬,如2月下旬和3月上旬,日期不固定。
(2)每年国庆节我国各地都会举行庆祝活动,十月是金菊盛开之季,代表吉祥的菊花是政府购买的首选。