中国食糖进口贸易“大国效应”分析
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摘要
近年来,中国已经成为世界上最大的食糖进口国。中国食糖进口量的改变是否会引起国际食糖市场上食糖价格的波动,即中国的食糖贸易是否存在"大国效应",这一问题值得深入研究。以"进口贸易大国"和"进口贸易小国"模型为切入点,探讨中国食糖进口类型,然后利用格兰杰因果关系检验测度中国食糖进口量变化和国际市场食糖价格之间是否存在因果关系,结果发现中国食糖进口不存在"大国效应"。最后,对中国食糖产业现状进行了分析,并从贸易和生产角度提出相关政策建议。
In recent years, China has become the largest sugar importer in the world. Whether the change of Chinese sugar import will cause the international sugar price fluctuation, that is, whether there is "large country effect" on Chinese sugar trade, this issue needs further study. The authors took the "large import country" model and "small import country" model as the base to analyze the type of Chinese sugar trade, and then used Granger causality test to detect whether there was a casual relation between the change of sugar import in China and the international market price of sugar. The results showed that there was no "big country effect" in China's sugar import. Finally, the status quo of China's sugar industry was analyzed and relevant policy recommendations were put forward from the perspective of trade and production.
In recent years, China has become the largest sugar importer in the world. Whether the change of Chinese sugar import will cause the international sugar price fluctuation, that is, whether there is "large country effect" on Chinese sugar trade, this issue needs further study. The authors took the "large import country" model and "small import country" model as the base to analyze the type of Chinese sugar trade, and then used Granger causality test to detect whether there was a casual relation between the change of sugar import in China and the international market price of sugar. The results showed that there was no "big country effect" in China's sugar import. Finally, the status quo of China's sugar industry was analyzed and relevant policy recommendations were put forward from the perspective of trade and production.
引文
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[2]牛盾.入世10年农业贸易政策实践与探索[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2011:368-375.
[3] Kremer.Population Growth and Technological Change:One Million B.C.to 1990[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1993,108(3):681-716.
[4]姚今观,宋景义,杨菁.加入WTO对中国粮食市场的影响及对策[J].河北学刊,2001(2):64-67
[5]于爱芝.中国小麦进口与国际小麦市场价格变动的因果关系的研究[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2004(3):103-106.
[6]李晓钟,张小蒂.粮食进口贸易中“大国效应”的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2004(10):26-32.
[7]杨燕,刘渝琳.中国粮食进口贸易中“大国效应”的扭曲及实证分析[J].对外经济贸易大学学报,2006(4):27-31.
[8]陈传兴,李静逸.中国大豆与玉米进出口贸易的“大国效应”分析[J].国际观察,2011(2):73-79.
[9]吕静.国际糖业保护政策对中国食糖产业的影响[D].大连:东北财经大学,2010.
[10]李裕.中国食糖的国际竞争力研究[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2011.
[11]徐雪,夏海龙.中国食糖未来10年产需形势展望[J].世界农业,2014(7):95-99.
[12]段立君,迟薇.我国食糖进口现状及影响因素分析[J].农业经济,2014(12):125-127.
[13]农业部农业贸易促进中心课题组.近年来中国食糖的进口特点、原因及建议[J].农业展望,2015(4):72-75.
[14]彭礫.市场势力下的中国棉花进口大国效应研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2016.