摘要
通过构造相关经济指标分析金融周期影响中国经济结构失衡的"冲击-传导"机制。主要结论包括:首先,在影响方向上,金融周期冲击的影响下中国经济内部失衡指数和中长期资本流动会呈现顺金融周期的波动,而经常账户和短期资本流动会呈现逆金融周期的波动。其次,在影响程度上,金融周期对结构失衡指数的变动起到了"金融加速器"的作用,体现在放大了经济内部失衡指数和经常账户的中长期波动,同时加剧了资本的短期流动。再次,在影响的数量方面,金融周期冲击分别能够解释内部和外部失衡指数近30%和20%的波动。最后,对这些结论进行了解释,并提出了相应的政策建议。
This paper analyzes the transition mechanism of financial cycle shock on China's economy structure imbalance by constructing related indexes.The main conclusions are as follows:firstly,in the direction of impact,financial cyclical shocks have pro-financial cyclical influence on China's internal imbalance index,and on medium & long-term capital flows,while counter financial cycle influence on current account balance and short-term capital flows.Secondly,in the degree of influence,financial cycle plays a role of "financial accelerator" on China's economic structure imbalance indexes,which is reflected in the enlargement of the middle and long term fluctuations in the internal imbalance index and the current account,and at the same time intensifies the short-term flow of capital.Finally,in terms of quantities impacts,financial cycle can explain the variance of China's internal and external imbalance indexes by nearly30%and 20%respectively.This paper interpretations of these conclusions and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.
引文
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(1)投资占GDP的比率也近似于等于储蓄率,因为在一个两部门经济中一般认为投资率等于储蓄率。
(1)在经济波动的系列研究文献中,一般认为在经济处于稳态时投资占GDP的比重应该在0.25左右,而经常账户和资本账户的差额为0。
(1)有关SV-TVP-VAR的MCMC模拟参数估计方法可以参见Nakajima[14]。