组合预测模型在我国体育产业发展水平预测中的应用
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摘要
体育产业的发展越来越受到关注,利用我国1997年—2016年的体育产业增加值数据,基于预测误差平方和最小方法构建组合预测模型,通过平方和误差(SSE)、均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平方绝对百分比误差(MAPE)以及均方百分比误差(MSPE)五种误差评价指标展开的对比,结果表明组合预测模型具备相对良好的预测结果以及相对精准的预测精度。运用组合预测模型对2017年—2020年体育产业增加值进行预测分析。预估分析到2020年的时候,国内的体育产业增加值将超过万亿元,因此就可以很好地与"十三五"规划给定的要求相符。最后基于预测结果,提出建议,为政府制定相关政策提供参考。
The development of the sports industry has received more and more attention. Researches have been done by using the value-added data of the sports industry in China from 1997 to 2016, and a combination prediction model was constructed based on the method of the minimum quadratic sum of the prediction errors. After the comparison of five error evaluation indicators, the sum of square error(SSE),mean square error(MSE), mean absolute error(MAE), square absolute percentage error(MAPE), mean square percentage error(MSPE), the research results show that the combination prediction model has higher precision and better prediction results. Finally, the prediction analysis on the added value of the sports industry from 2017 to 2020 was carried out by using the combination forecasting model. It is believed that by 2020, the added value of China's sports industry will exceed one trillion Yuan, and this could meet the requirements of the "13 th Five-Year Plan for the Sports Industry". In the end, based on the forecast results, suggestions are made to provide reference for the government to make relevant policies.
The development of the sports industry has received more and more attention. Researches have been done by using the value-added data of the sports industry in China from 1997 to 2016, and a combination prediction model was constructed based on the method of the minimum quadratic sum of the prediction errors. After the comparison of five error evaluation indicators, the sum of square error(SSE),mean square error(MSE), mean absolute error(MAE), square absolute percentage error(MAPE), mean square percentage error(MSPE), the research results show that the combination prediction model has higher precision and better prediction results. Finally, the prediction analysis on the added value of the sports industry from 2017 to 2020 was carried out by using the combination forecasting model. It is believed that by 2020, the added value of China's sports industry will exceed one trillion Yuan, and this could meet the requirements of the "13 th Five-Year Plan for the Sports Industry". In the end, based on the forecast results, suggestions are made to provide reference for the government to make relevant policies.
引文
[1]国家统计局.http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201901/t20190108_1643790.html.
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[2]张涛,刘宽斌.“大数据”在宏观经济预测分析中的应用[J].社会科学文摘,2018,(01):47.
[3]姚媛.非等时距GM(1,1)模型的构建及其实施经济预测运用[J].国民经济,2018,(16):41.
[4]张劲帆,刚建华等.基于混频向量自回归模型的宏观经济预测[J].金融研究,2018,(07):35.
[5]魏华.S型曲线在我国体育预测问题中的应用研究[J].电子设计工程,2011,(16):62.
[6]李亚慰,李建设,长三角地区体育主导产业结构测算、模型构建与发展预测研究[J].中国体育科技,2015,(06):19.
[7]李荣日,杨腕舒.体育产业演化研究:显著特征与发展预测[J].沈阳体育学院学报,2018,(03):7.