河南省耕地资源数量变化及驱动因素分析
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摘要
了解耕地资源的时空变化过程及趋势有利于促进耕地合理持续利用,对确保区域粮食安全有重要指导意义。采用2000—2012年数据,探讨了河南省耕地数量在时间、空间上的变化特征,运用主成分分析法探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子,并运用灰色关联法和多元回归法对2013—2025年河南省耕地资源数量进行预测。结果表明,2000—2012年,河南省耕地数量呈现平稳—增加—基本平稳—增加—平稳的特征,人均耕地面积呈现平稳—增加—稍微降低—增加—降低的特征;信阳市、济源市、新乡市、鹤壁市、南阳市的耕地数量相对变化率均大于全省平均水平,分别为3.33、1.73、1.43、1.20、1.12。影响河南省耕地数量的主要因素表现为总人口>客运量>全社会固定资产投资额>GDP>农村人均居住面积>城镇化水平。预测2013—2025年河南省耕地数量呈逐年小幅增加趋势,预计2020年河南省耕地数量为9 782.81 khm2,2025年达11 078.95 khm2。最后,从农村居民点集约利用、低丘缓坡地开发利用、补充耕地工程建设及耕地资源信息系统建设方面提出加强耕地保护的意见和措施。
Understanding the change process and trend of cultivated land resource is conducive to promoting rational and sustainable use of arable land,and it is of great significance to ensure regional food security. This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal change characteristics of cultivated land quantity in Henan province using data from 2000 to 2012,discussed the main driving factors of cultivated land quantity change using the principal component analysis,and predicted the number of cultivated land resource from 2013 to 2025 using the grey correlation method and the multiple regression method. The results showed that the quantity of cultivated land presented a stable—increasing—basically stable—increasing—stable characteristics,and the per capita cultivated land area was characterized by steady—increasing—slightly decresing—increasing—decreasing in Henan province. In addition,the relative change rates of cultivated land in Xinyang city,Jiyuan city,Xinxiang city,Hebi city and Nanyang city were greater than the average level of the whole province,which were 3. 33,1. 73,1. 43,1. 20,1. 12 respectively. The order of main factors affecting the quantity change of cultivated land was population > passenger volume > fixed assets investment volume > GDP > rural per capita living space > urbanization level. It was predicted thatthe number of cultivated land would be 9 782. 81 kha in 2020,11 078. 95 kha in 2025. Finally,this paper put forward some suggestions and measures to strengthen the protection of farmland from the aspects of intensive utilization of rural residential land,exploitation and utilization of low hills and gentle slopes,construction of supplementary cultivated land and arable land resources information system.
Understanding the change process and trend of cultivated land resource is conducive to promoting rational and sustainable use of arable land,and it is of great significance to ensure regional food security. This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal change characteristics of cultivated land quantity in Henan province using data from 2000 to 2012,discussed the main driving factors of cultivated land quantity change using the principal component analysis,and predicted the number of cultivated land resource from 2013 to 2025 using the grey correlation method and the multiple regression method. The results showed that the quantity of cultivated land presented a stable—increasing—basically stable—increasing—stable characteristics,and the per capita cultivated land area was characterized by steady—increasing—slightly decresing—increasing—decreasing in Henan province. In addition,the relative change rates of cultivated land in Xinyang city,Jiyuan city,Xinxiang city,Hebi city and Nanyang city were greater than the average level of the whole province,which were 3. 33,1. 73,1. 43,1. 20,1. 12 respectively. The order of main factors affecting the quantity change of cultivated land was population > passenger volume > fixed assets investment volume > GDP > rural per capita living space > urbanization level. It was predicted thatthe number of cultivated land would be 9 782. 81 kha in 2020,11 078. 95 kha in 2025. Finally,this paper put forward some suggestions and measures to strengthen the protection of farmland from the aspects of intensive utilization of rural residential land,exploitation and utilization of low hills and gentle slopes,construction of supplementary cultivated land and arable land resources information system.
引文
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[11]黄杉,陈前虎,梁影君,等.浙江省开化县城关工业区低丘缓坡开发的评价方法与利用策略[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(6):31-38.
[2]王文杰,张永福.基于GIS的新疆喀什地区耕地变化及驱动力研究[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(17):4560-4564.
[3]封志明,李香莲.耕地与粮食安全战略:藏粮于土,提高中国土地资源的综合生产能力[J].地理学与国土研究,2006,16(3):1-5.
[4]冀楠.河南省耕地变化及其对粮食产量的影响[D].开封:河南大学,2011:53-59.
[5]车明亮,聂宜民,刘登民,等.区域耕地数量变化预测方法的对比研究[J].中国土地科学,2010(5):13-18.
[6]陈学渊,唐华俊,吴永常,等.耕地格局时空动态变化过程和差异分析——以浙江安吉为例[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(21):4302-4313.
[7]申海建,郭荣中.湖南省耕地资源动态变化及其驱动力[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(4):309-314.
[8]赵晓丽,张增祥,汪潇,等.中国近30 a耕地变化时空特征及其主要原因分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(3):1-11.
[9]冯长春,赵若曦,古维迎.中国农村居民点用地变化的社会经济因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(3):6-11.
[10]余劲,孙春阳.中国农村居民点土地整理研究评述[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(5):69-71.
[11]黄杉,陈前虎,梁影君,等.浙江省开化县城关工业区低丘缓坡开发的评价方法与利用策略[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(6):31-38.