考虑新能源发电不确定性的静态电压稳定故障筛选与排序方法
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摘要
为了有效地分析电力系统设备故障和新能源发电不确定性对系统静态电压稳定的影响,提出了一种考虑新能源发电不确定性的静态电压稳定故障筛选与排序方法。假设各新能源发电出力为均值,建立N-1故障场景下确定性的电压稳定临界点模型,根据所得的故障后负荷裕度筛选得到严重故障集。考虑风电和光伏发电的随机分布,建立故障场景下的电压稳定概率评估模型,采用随机响应面法求解获得故障场景的负荷裕度累积概率分布。根据负荷裕度累积概率分布,设计了2种故障后系统电压稳定性的排序指标,确定严重故障集的排序。IEEE 118节点标准系统的计算结果表明,所提故障筛选与排序方法是有效的,可以甄别和排序各故障场景下系统的概率静态电压稳定性;根据故障排序结果构建的电力系统概率电压稳定域有助于对概率稳定边界的分析和研究。
In order to effectively analyze the influence of power system equipment failures and uncertainty of rene-wable energy power generation on static voltage stability,a fault screening and ranking method of static voltage stabi-lity considering uncertainty of renewable energy power generation is proposed. Assuming the average output of each renewable energy power generation,the deterministic voltage stability critical point model under N-1 fault scenario is established,and the critical fault set is screened based on the obtained load margin after fault. The voltage stability probability evaluation model under fault scenario is established considering the random distribution of wind power and photovoltaic power generation,and the cumulative probability distribution of load margin under fault scenario is solved by the stochastic response surface method,based on which,two voltage stability ranking indexes are designed to determine the ranking of critical fault sets. Calculative results of the standard IEEE 118-bus system show that,the proposed fault screening and ranking method is effective,and the static voltage stability probability under each fault scenario can be screened and sorted. The probabilistic voltage stability domain of power system,which is established on the basis of the fault ranking result,is conducive to the analysis and study of probability stable boundary.
In order to effectively analyze the influence of power system equipment failures and uncertainty of rene-wable energy power generation on static voltage stability,a fault screening and ranking method of static voltage stabi-lity considering uncertainty of renewable energy power generation is proposed. Assuming the average output of each renewable energy power generation,the deterministic voltage stability critical point model under N-1 fault scenario is established,and the critical fault set is screened based on the obtained load margin after fault. The voltage stability probability evaluation model under fault scenario is established considering the random distribution of wind power and photovoltaic power generation,and the cumulative probability distribution of load margin under fault scenario is solved by the stochastic response surface method,based on which,two voltage stability ranking indexes are designed to determine the ranking of critical fault sets. Calculative results of the standard IEEE 118-bus system show that,the proposed fault screening and ranking method is effective,and the static voltage stability probability under each fault scenario can be screened and sorted. The probabilistic voltage stability domain of power system,which is established on the basis of the fault ranking result,is conducive to the analysis and study of probability stable boundary.
引文
[1] 国家信息中心经济预测部.新能源发电成本下降原因及发展趋势[EB/OL].(2016-09-30)[2019-03-25].http://www.sic.gov.cn/News/466/6940.htm.
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[8] 谢应昭,卢继平.基于多项式正态变换和最大熵估计的含风电系统电压稳定概率分析[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(10):66-73.XIE Yingzhao,LU Jiping.Probabilistic voltage stability analysis based on polynomial normal transformation and maximum entropy estimation for power system containing wind power[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(10):66-73.
[9] RODRIGUES A B,PRADA R B,DA GUIA DA SILVA M.Voltage stability probabilistic assessment in composite systems:modeling unsolvability and controllability loss[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2010,25(3):1575-1588.
[10] 鲍海波,韦化,郭小璇.考虑双馈异步风电机组无功极限的静态电压稳定概率评估[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(11):87-93.BAO Haibo,WEI Hua,GUO Xiaoxuan.Static voltage stability proba-bilistic evaluation considering reactive power limit of DFIG[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(11):87-93.
[11] 陈磊,闵勇,侯凯元.考虑风电随机性的静态电压稳定概率评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(3):674-680.CHEN Lei,MIN Yong,HOU Kaiyuan.Probabilistic steady-state vol-tage stability assessment considering stochastic wind power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(3):674-680.
[12] 张谦,唐飞,刘涤尘,等.计及电动汽车充电和负荷波动极限的电力系统静态电压稳定性评估方案[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1888-1895.ZHANG Qian,TANG Fei,LIU Dichen,et al.A static voltage stability assessment scheme of electric power systems considering charging state of plug-in electric vehicles and load fluctuation limits[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1888-1895.
[13] 鲍海波,郭小璇,韦化.结合证据理论和双层规划的电压稳定不确定分析[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(5):120-126,146.BAO Haibo,GUO Xiaoxuan,WEI Hua.Uncertainty analysis of vol-tage stability based on evidence theory and bilevel programming[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(5):120-126,146.
[14] 吴蓓,张焰,陈闽江.点估计法在电压稳定性分析中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(25):38-43.WU Bei,ZHANG Yan,CHEN Minjiang.Application of point estimate method to voltage stability analysis[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(25):38-43.
[15] 蒋平,杨绍进,霍雨翀.考虑风电场出力随机性的电网静态安全分析[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(22):35-40.JIANG Ping,YANG Shaojin,HUO Yuchong.Static security analysis of power systems considering randomness of wind farm output[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(22):35-40.
[16] 董雷,程卫东,杨以涵.考虑支路随机断线的概率潮流方法及应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(20):79-84.DONG Lei,CHENG Weidong,YANG Yihan.Probabilistic load flow method with consideration of random branch outages and its application[J].Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(20):79-84.
[17] 陈得治,张伯明,吴文传,等.静态电压稳定分析的故障筛选和排序方法[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(14):16-20,39.CHEN Dezhi,ZHANG Boming,WU Wenchuan,et al.A contingency screening and ranking method for voltage stability analysis[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2008,32(14):16-20,39.
[18] 马平,蔡兴国.电压稳定分析中支路型故障筛选及排序算法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(1):44-48.MA Ping,CAI Xingguo.A new method of screening and ranking branch outage contingencies for voltage stability assessment[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(1):44-48.
[19] ISUKAPALLI S S,ROY A,GEORGOPOULOS P G.Stochastic Response Surface Methods(SRSMs) for uncertainty propagation:application to environmental and biological systems[J].Risk Analysis,1998,18(3):351-363.
[2] 康忠健,辛士郎,仲崇山,等.双馈风电场穿透功率增加对电力系统稳定影响综述[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(11):94-99.KANG Zhongjian,XIN Shilang,ZHONG Chongshan,et al.Impact of ride-through power increase of DFIG-based wind farm on power system stability[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(11):94-99.
[3] 杨悦,李国庆,王振浩.基于可信性理论的含风电电力系统电压稳定概率评估[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(12):6-12.YANG Yue,LI Guoqing,WANG Zhenhao.Probabilistic voltage stability assessment based on credibility theory for power system with wind farm[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(12):6 -12.
[4] HAESEN E,BASTIAENSEN C,DRIESEN J,et al.A probabilistic formulation of load margins in power systems with stochastic generation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2009,24(2):951-958.
[5] 鲍海波,韦化.考虑风电的电压稳定概率评估的随机响应面法[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(13):77-85,194.BAO Haibo,WEI Hua.A stochastic response surface method for probabilistic evaluation of the voltage stability considering wind power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(13):77-85,194.
[6] 王敏,丁明.考虑分布式电源的静态电压稳定概率评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(25):17-22.WANG Min,DING Ming.Probabilistic evaluation of static voltage stability taking account of distributed generation[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010,30(25):17-22.
[7] BAO H B,WEI H,GUO X X.Solutions to probabilistic analysis of voltage stability in power systems with wind farms using advanced unscented transformation[C]//2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems.Beijing,China:IEEE,2016:1-7.
[8] 谢应昭,卢继平.基于多项式正态变换和最大熵估计的含风电系统电压稳定概率分析[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(10):66-73.XIE Yingzhao,LU Jiping.Probabilistic voltage stability analysis based on polynomial normal transformation and maximum entropy estimation for power system containing wind power[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(10):66-73.
[9] RODRIGUES A B,PRADA R B,DA GUIA DA SILVA M.Voltage stability probabilistic assessment in composite systems:modeling unsolvability and controllability loss[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2010,25(3):1575-1588.
[10] 鲍海波,韦化,郭小璇.考虑双馈异步风电机组无功极限的静态电压稳定概率评估[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(11):87-93.BAO Haibo,WEI Hua,GUO Xiaoxuan.Static voltage stability proba-bilistic evaluation considering reactive power limit of DFIG[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(11):87-93.
[11] 陈磊,闵勇,侯凯元.考虑风电随机性的静态电压稳定概率评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(3):674-680.CHEN Lei,MIN Yong,HOU Kaiyuan.Probabilistic steady-state vol-tage stability assessment considering stochastic wind power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(3):674-680.
[12] 张谦,唐飞,刘涤尘,等.计及电动汽车充电和负荷波动极限的电力系统静态电压稳定性评估方案[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1888-1895.ZHANG Qian,TANG Fei,LIU Dichen,et al.A static voltage stability assessment scheme of electric power systems considering charging state of plug-in electric vehicles and load fluctuation limits[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1888-1895.
[13] 鲍海波,郭小璇,韦化.结合证据理论和双层规划的电压稳定不确定分析[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(5):120-126,146.BAO Haibo,GUO Xiaoxuan,WEI Hua.Uncertainty analysis of vol-tage stability based on evidence theory and bilevel programming[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(5):120-126,146.
[14] 吴蓓,张焰,陈闽江.点估计法在电压稳定性分析中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(25):38-43.WU Bei,ZHANG Yan,CHEN Minjiang.Application of point estimate method to voltage stability analysis[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(25):38-43.
[15] 蒋平,杨绍进,霍雨翀.考虑风电场出力随机性的电网静态安全分析[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(22):35-40.JIANG Ping,YANG Shaojin,HUO Yuchong.Static security analysis of power systems considering randomness of wind farm output[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(22):35-40.
[16] 董雷,程卫东,杨以涵.考虑支路随机断线的概率潮流方法及应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(20):79-84.DONG Lei,CHENG Weidong,YANG Yihan.Probabilistic load flow method with consideration of random branch outages and its application[J].Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(20):79-84.
[17] 陈得治,张伯明,吴文传,等.静态电压稳定分析的故障筛选和排序方法[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(14):16-20,39.CHEN Dezhi,ZHANG Boming,WU Wenchuan,et al.A contingency screening and ranking method for voltage stability analysis[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2008,32(14):16-20,39.
[18] 马平,蔡兴国.电压稳定分析中支路型故障筛选及排序算法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(1):44-48.MA Ping,CAI Xingguo.A new method of screening and ranking branch outage contingencies for voltage stability assessment[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(1):44-48.
[19] ISUKAPALLI S S,ROY A,GEORGOPOULOS P G.Stochastic Response Surface Methods(SRSMs) for uncertainty propagation:application to environmental and biological systems[J].Risk Analysis,1998,18(3):351-363.