基于Copula函数的郑州市外调水供水补偿特性
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摘要
南水北调工程供水和黄河供水是郑州市城区的两个主要外调水源,对两者的相互补偿特性及其对郑州市城区供水的补偿特性进行分析,可为制定郑州市城区供水方案、提高供水保证率提供参考。在发现南水北调工程供水也具有一定的频率特性的背景下,以两者的供水频率分析为基础,使用优选的Copula函数,对郑州市城区南水北调工程供水和黄河供水进行补偿特性计算分析,结果表明:①在丰枯同步组合类型中,两种水源同枯的频率最大,同平的频率最小,发生同枯的风险较大,易造成供水短缺风险,此时应积极调配水源;②同丰时水量充足,可利用调蓄水库将多余水量存蓄,供枯时使用;③在丰枯异步组合类型中,丰与枯组合的频率最大,枯与平组合的频率最小;④丰枯异步的频率大于丰枯同步的频率,说明两水源互补性较好。
The water sources of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the Yellow River are the two main external water sources supplying to Zhengzhou City. The analyzing of the compensation characteristics between the two water sources can help guiding the actual water diversion process and improving the utilization of water resources. It was found that the water resources of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project also have certain frequency characteristics. Based on the frequency analysis of the two water resources, this study used the best fitting Copula function to analyze the compensation characteristics between water resources of South to North Water Diversion Project and the Yellow River. The results show that a) in the synchronous frequency, the situation that both poor frequencies of water source is the largest and flat is the smallest, which makes the water shortage risk easily occurred; b) when the water is abundant at the same time, the surplus water can be stored by reservoir, to be used in dry season; c) in the asynchronous frequency, the frequency of rich and poor combination is the largest and poor and flat combination is the smallest and; d) the asynchronous frequency is higher than synchronous frequency, which indicates that the two water sources complement each other well.
The water sources of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the Yellow River are the two main external water sources supplying to Zhengzhou City. The analyzing of the compensation characteristics between the two water sources can help guiding the actual water diversion process and improving the utilization of water resources. It was found that the water resources of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project also have certain frequency characteristics. Based on the frequency analysis of the two water resources, this study used the best fitting Copula function to analyze the compensation characteristics between water resources of South to North Water Diversion Project and the Yellow River. The results show that a) in the synchronous frequency, the situation that both poor frequencies of water source is the largest and flat is the smallest, which makes the water shortage risk easily occurred; b) when the water is abundant at the same time, the surplus water can be stored by reservoir, to be used in dry season; c) in the asynchronous frequency, the frequency of rich and poor combination is the largest and poor and flat combination is the smallest and; d) the asynchronous frequency is higher than synchronous frequency, which indicates that the two water sources complement each other well.
引文
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[14] 曹根堂.基于水利水电勘测设计信息管理的计算机集成应用系统探究[J].电子测试,2015(4):100-102.
[15] 鲁克江.灌区季节性水价的确定及实施[J].中国农村水利水电,2000(10):9-10.
[2] 姜彪,孙万光,邓显羽,等.跨流域联合供水水库补偿特性研究[J].水文,2016,36(5):33-38.
[3] 王妍,王强.基于Copula函数的输水工程径流丰枯补偿特性研究[J].东北水利水电,2018,36(7):37-39.
[4] 陈璐.Copula函数理论在多变量水文分析计算中的应用研究[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2013:28.
[5] 水利部.水利水电工程水文计算规范:SL 278—2002[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002:14.
[6] 冯平,牛军宜,张永,等.南水北调西线工程水源区河流与黄河的丰枯遭遇分析[J].水利学报,2010,41(8):900-907.
[7] ZHANG L. Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis and Risk Mapping[D]. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University, 2005:42-43.
[8] 郑红星,刘昌明.南水北调东中两线不同水文区降水丰枯遭遇性分析[J].地理学报,2000,55(5):523-532.
[9] 高申.郑州市城区跨流域调水工程与调蓄水库联合调度研究[D].郑州:郑州大学,2017:13-16.
[10] 曹燕燕.干旱时空变化及分布特征研究[D].天津:天津大学,2012:29-33.
[11] 戴昌军.多维联合分布计算理论在南水北调东线丰枯遭遇分析中的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005:73-76.
[12] 鞠兵,吴克宁,李玲,等.河南省典型土系的特定土层特征与分类研究[J].土壤学报,2016,53(1):48-57.
[13] 何小聪.基于贝叶斯网络的跨流域调水工程水文风险分析研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2012:34-35.
[14] 曹根堂.基于水利水电勘测设计信息管理的计算机集成应用系统探究[J].电子测试,2015(4):100-102.
[15] 鲁克江.灌区季节性水价的确定及实施[J].中国农村水利水电,2000(10):9-10.