气候变暖背景下贵州省烤烟种植有效积温时空演变研究
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摘要
基于1961—2015年历史气象数据及不同排放背景下(RCP 2. 6,RCP 4. 5,RCP 8. 5) 2016—2099年气象预估数据,采用趋势分析法、空间插值法和小波分析法分析了贵州省烤烟种植大田生育期有效积温时空演变规律。结果表明:1) 1961—2015年,贵州省烤烟伸根期、旺长期、成熟期以及总生长期的有效积温均呈缓慢上升趋势。各阶段及总生长期有效积温变化空间格局存在差异。伸根期、旺长期、成熟期以及总生长期的有效积温变化主周期分别为22,29,28和29 a。2) 2016—2099年间,除RCP 2. 6背景下成熟期外,其他背景下各阶段及总生长期的烤烟有效积温均呈上升趋势。除RCP 8. 5背景下外,各背景下各阶段及总生长期的烤烟有效积温变化空间格局较为接近。各背景下有效积温变化主周期均为56 a。
The temporal and spatial evolutions of effective accumulative temperature during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Guizhou province were analyzed by the method of trend analysis,spatial interpolation and wavelet analysisbased on the historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2015 and meteorological forecast data from 2016 to 2099 under different emission scenarios( RCP 2.6,RCP 4. 5,RCP 8. 5). The results showed that: 1) the effective accumulative temperature of fluecured tobacco in Guizhou province showed a slow upward trend from 1961 to 2015. The spatial patterns of effective accumulative temperature change in each stage and total growth period were different. The main periods of effective accumulative temperature change during the cycle-mass period,flourishing period,mature period and total growth period were 22,29,28 and 29 a,respectively. 2) The effective accumulative temperature of flue-cured tobacco at all stages and the total growth stage in other scenarios showed an upward trendexcept the mature stage under the RCP 2. 6 scenarioduring the period from 2016 to 2099. The spatial patterns of effective accumulative temperature change of flue-cured tobacco in each stage and the total growth period were relatively close except for the RCP 8. 5 scenario.The main period of effective accumulative temperature change was 56 a under each scenario.
The temporal and spatial evolutions of effective accumulative temperature during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Guizhou province were analyzed by the method of trend analysis,spatial interpolation and wavelet analysisbased on the historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2015 and meteorological forecast data from 2016 to 2099 under different emission scenarios( RCP 2.6,RCP 4. 5,RCP 8. 5). The results showed that: 1) the effective accumulative temperature of fluecured tobacco in Guizhou province showed a slow upward trend from 1961 to 2015. The spatial patterns of effective accumulative temperature change in each stage and total growth period were different. The main periods of effective accumulative temperature change during the cycle-mass period,flourishing period,mature period and total growth period were 22,29,28 and 29 a,respectively. 2) The effective accumulative temperature of flue-cured tobacco at all stages and the total growth stage in other scenarios showed an upward trendexcept the mature stage under the RCP 2. 6 scenarioduring the period from 2016 to 2099. The spatial patterns of effective accumulative temperature change of flue-cured tobacco in each stage and the total growth period were relatively close except for the RCP 8. 5 scenario.The main period of effective accumulative temperature change was 56 a under each scenario.
引文
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[18]张娇艳,李扬,吴战平,等. RCPs背景下贵州省气候变化预估分析[J].气象科技,2017,45(1):107-114.
[19]杨志新,张聪,洪映萍,等.烤烟大田期的生长特点与管理要点[J].甘肃农业科技,2008(10):51-52.
[20]莫建国,唐远驹,汪圣洪,等.贵州烤烟大田期可用日数与利用分析[J].中国烟草科学,2012,33(1):37-42.
[21]王晓霞,冯雪菲,张富荣,等.朝阳地区近50年生长季小麦有效积温变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(2):280-285.
[22]隋景跃.近50年辽西朝阳地区生长季谷子有效积温变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2015(18):231-232.
[23]刘胜文,游大伟,汤超莲.海陵岛温度≥10℃活动积温变化趋势的预估[J].广东气象,2014,36(1):30-32.
[2]陈颐,周清明,杨虹琦,等.湘南典型浓香型烟叶产区烤烟大田生育期气候特征分析[J].中国烟草科学,2015,36(4):56-62.
[3]黄韡,杨晓鹏,杨军章,等.云南昭通烤烟大田期气候对烟叶化学品质的影响[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(21):312-317.
[4] ZHAO T,CHEN L,MA Z. Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2014,59(4):412-429.
[5] KANG Y,KHAN S,MA X. Climate change impacts on crop yield,crop water productivity and food security:a review[J]. Progress in Natural Science,2009,19(12):1665-1674.
[6]杨志清.云南省烤烟种植生态适宜性气候因素分析[J].烟草科技,1998,31(6):40-42.
[7]莫建国,汪圣洪,谷晓平.基于GIS的贵州烤烟种植气候区划研究[J].上海农业学报,2011,27(3):64-69.
[8]张慢慢,邵惠芳,许自成,等.烤烟产量与气候因子的关系分析[J].河南农业科学,2016,45(7):34-38.
[9]张东启,郭卢,钱益亮,等.烤烟叶片发生、成熟与有效积温的关联分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(10):105-110.
[10]郑东方,许嘉阳,黄化刚,等.气候变暖对烤烟气候适生性和大田可用日数的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(2):167-173.
[11]张家智,张茂松.气候变暖对云南烤烟生产影响的初步分析[J].气象与环境科学,2007,30(4):17-19.
[12]钱益亮,崔会会,邵伏文,等.有效积温对烤烟叶龄及成熟度的影响[J].中国烟草科学,2013,34(6):15-19.
[13]杨建堂,王文亮,霍晓婷,等.烤烟地上部干物质增长过程与有效积温关系研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2004,38(1):28-32.
[14]姬兴杰,石英.气候变化对河南烟区烤烟化学品质的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(3):262-272.
[15]刘文茹,陈国庆,曲春红,等. RCP背景下长江中下游麦稻二熟制气候生产潜力变化特征研究[J].生态学报,2018,38(1):156-166.
[16]李宏群,刘晓莉,汪建华,等.未来气候变化对重庆榨菜种植适宜区的影响[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(8):2651-2657.
[17] GORGUNER M,KAVVAS M L,ISHIDA K. Assessing the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin in Turkey by using dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2019,648:481-499.
[18]张娇艳,李扬,吴战平,等. RCPs背景下贵州省气候变化预估分析[J].气象科技,2017,45(1):107-114.
[19]杨志新,张聪,洪映萍,等.烤烟大田期的生长特点与管理要点[J].甘肃农业科技,2008(10):51-52.
[20]莫建国,唐远驹,汪圣洪,等.贵州烤烟大田期可用日数与利用分析[J].中国烟草科学,2012,33(1):37-42.
[21]王晓霞,冯雪菲,张富荣,等.朝阳地区近50年生长季小麦有效积温变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(2):280-285.
[22]隋景跃.近50年辽西朝阳地区生长季谷子有效积温变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2015(18):231-232.
[23]刘胜文,游大伟,汤超莲.海陵岛温度≥10℃活动积温变化趋势的预估[J].广东气象,2014,36(1):30-32.