基于低偏差序列的矿井供水管网可靠性
|
摘要
综合考虑管网水力可靠性的影响因素,结合节点和管网整体2个方面确定管段管径、管长、故障率、修复时间以及节点用水量作为评价指标,建立矿井供水管网可靠性评价模型。运用管网平差软件EPANETH进行水力模拟得到各管段故障情况下的节点实际可用水量,然后采用低偏差序列代替伪随机序列的拟蒙特卡罗法仿真模拟求得各节点的可靠度,再以节点需水量占管网总流量的比例为权值,求得整个管网的水力可靠度。研究结果表明:采用该评价模型可确定管网中可靠性较低的节点和对管网水力可靠性影响较大的管段,该计算方法可作为管网优化设计的参考。
Considering the reliability of the hydraulic impact factors, combined with two aspects of node and the network as a whole, the section pipe diameter, pipe length, node failure rate, repair time and water consumption are determined as evaluation indexes, and then mine water supply pipe network hydraulic reliability evaluation model was established. EPANETH was used for hydraulic simulation for each section of the node actual water availability under the circumstance of pipe fault, and then quasi Monte-Carlo method of the lower deviation instead of pseudo random sequences was used for simulation for reliability of each node, the entire pipe network hydraulic reliability was obtained according to node demand ratio for weights of network water demand. The results show that the low reliability node and a greater influence on the reliability of the hydraulic section can be determined for the network, so that the calculation method can be used as pipe network optimization design reference.
Considering the reliability of the hydraulic impact factors, combined with two aspects of node and the network as a whole, the section pipe diameter, pipe length, node failure rate, repair time and water consumption are determined as evaluation indexes, and then mine water supply pipe network hydraulic reliability evaluation model was established. EPANETH was used for hydraulic simulation for each section of the node actual water availability under the circumstance of pipe fault, and then quasi Monte-Carlo method of the lower deviation instead of pseudo random sequences was used for simulation for reliability of each node, the entire pipe network hydraulic reliability was obtained according to node demand ratio for weights of network water demand. The results show that the low reliability node and a greater influence on the reliability of the hydraulic section can be determined for the network, so that the calculation method can be used as pipe network optimization design reference.
引文
[1]张立松,闫相祯,杨秀娟,等.煤岩破碎失效概率的可靠性分析及分级应用[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(11):1823-1828.ZHANG Lisong,YAN Xiangzhen,YANG Xiujuan,et al.Reliability analysis of coal crushing failure probability and its classification application[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(11):1823-1828.
[2]肖尊群,刘宝琛,乔世范,等.重力式挡土墙结构模糊随机可靠性分析[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,41(4):1522-1526.XIAO Zunqun,LIU Baochen,QIAO Shifan,et al.Analysis of fuzzy reliability for gravity retaining wall structure[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2010,41(4):1522-1526.
[3]曾晟,杨仕教,孙冰,等.基于ABAQUS-ANFIS的露天矿边坡可靠度分析[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4):437-441.ZENG Sheng,YANG Shijiao,SUN Bing,et al.Reliability analysis of open-pit slope based on ABAQUS and ANFIS[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2006,31(4):437-441.
[4]侯晓东,蒋仲安.矿井防尘供水管网失效模糊故障树分析[J].金属矿山,2008(6):112-115.HOU Xiaodong,JIANG Zhongan.Fuzzy fault tree analysis of failure of water supply network for mine dust-proofing[J].Metal Mine,2008(6):112-115.
[5]金溪,张杰,高金良,等.利用GO法进行供水管网可靠度计算[J].浙江工业大学学报,2007,35(6):682-685.JIN Xi,ZHANG Jie,GAO Jinliang,et al.Calculation of water supply system reliability with GO method[J].Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology,2007,35(6):682-685.
[6]桑海涛,孟稚松,周真.矿井防尘供水管网系统的GO法可靠性分析[J].科学技术与工程,2010,10(28):6989-6993.SANG Haitao,MENG Zhisong,ZHOU Zhen.Reliability analysis of water supply network system for mine dust-proofing in GO methodology[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2010,10(28):6989-6993.
[7]邓建,边利,彭怀生.一种新的蒙特卡罗随机有限元方法[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2006,37(5):998-1000.DENG Jian,BIAN Li,PENG Huaisheng.A new Monte-Carlo stochastic finite element method[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2006,37(5):998-1000.
[8]章征宝,余云进,徐得潜,等.基于蒙特卡罗法的城市给水管网可靠性分析[J].给水排水,2007,33(7):106-110.ZHANG Zhengbao,YU Yunjin,XU Deqian,et al.The reliability analysis of urban water distribution network based on Monte-Carlo method[J].Water&Wastewater Engineering,2007,33(7):106-110.
[9]李龙云.蒙特卡罗法在给水管网可靠性评价中的应用[D].上海:同济大学环境科学与工程学院,2009:13-14.LI Longyun.Application of Monte-Carlo method in reliability evaluation of water distribution network[D].Shanghai:Tongji University.College of Environment Science and Engineering,2009:13-14.
[10]黄美发,景晖,匡兵,等.基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的测量不确定度评定[J].仪器仪表学报,2009,30(1):120-124.HUANG Meifa,JING Hui,KUANG Bing,et al.Measurement uncertainty evaluation based on quasi Monte-Carlo method[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument,2009,30(1):120-124.
[11]赖斯,卢秀玉.蒙特卡罗方法与拟蒙特卡罗方法解线性方程组[J].东华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,36(2):224-227.LAI Siyan,LU Xiuyu.The Monte Carlo methods and Quasi Monte Carlo methods for systems of linear algebraic equations[J].Journal of Donghua University(Natural Science),2010,36(2):224-227.
[12]朱尧辰.点集偏差引论[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2011:190-193.ZHU Yaochen.Point set deviation introduction[M].Hefei:University of Science and Technology China Press,2011:190-193.
[13]朱云飞,罗彪,郑金华,等.基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的进化算法搜索鲁棒最优解的性能提高研究[J].模式识别与人工智能,2011,24(2):201-204.ZHU Yunfei,LUO Biao,ZHENG Jinhua,et al.Research on increasing the performance of evolutionary algorithm in searching robust optimal solutions based on Quasi-Monte Carlo method[J].Pattern Recognition&Artificial Intelligence,2011,24(2):201-204.
[14]郭辉,姬红兵,武斌.采用拟蒙特卡罗法的被动多传感器目标跟踪[J].西安电子科技大学学报(自然科学版),2010,37(6):1042-1046.GUO Hui,JI Hongbing,WU Bin.Quasi-Monte Carlo Gaussian particle filter based target tracking for the multiple passive sensor[J].Journal of Xidian University(Natural Science),2010,37(6):1042-1046.
[15]罗付岩,徐海云.拟蒙特卡罗模拟方法在金融计算中的应用研究[J].数理统计与管理,2008,27(4):605-609.LUO Fuyan,XU Haiyun.The applying of Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in financial computation[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2008,27(4):605-609.
[16]Antonov I A,Saleev V M.An economic method of computing LP-sequences[J].USSR Comput Math Math Phys,1979,19:252-256.
[17]Tabesh M,Tanyimboh T T,Burrows R.Head driven simulation based reliability of water distribution network[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2001,127(4):206-209.
[2]肖尊群,刘宝琛,乔世范,等.重力式挡土墙结构模糊随机可靠性分析[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,41(4):1522-1526.XIAO Zunqun,LIU Baochen,QIAO Shifan,et al.Analysis of fuzzy reliability for gravity retaining wall structure[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2010,41(4):1522-1526.
[3]曾晟,杨仕教,孙冰,等.基于ABAQUS-ANFIS的露天矿边坡可靠度分析[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4):437-441.ZENG Sheng,YANG Shijiao,SUN Bing,et al.Reliability analysis of open-pit slope based on ABAQUS and ANFIS[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2006,31(4):437-441.
[4]侯晓东,蒋仲安.矿井防尘供水管网失效模糊故障树分析[J].金属矿山,2008(6):112-115.HOU Xiaodong,JIANG Zhongan.Fuzzy fault tree analysis of failure of water supply network for mine dust-proofing[J].Metal Mine,2008(6):112-115.
[5]金溪,张杰,高金良,等.利用GO法进行供水管网可靠度计算[J].浙江工业大学学报,2007,35(6):682-685.JIN Xi,ZHANG Jie,GAO Jinliang,et al.Calculation of water supply system reliability with GO method[J].Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology,2007,35(6):682-685.
[6]桑海涛,孟稚松,周真.矿井防尘供水管网系统的GO法可靠性分析[J].科学技术与工程,2010,10(28):6989-6993.SANG Haitao,MENG Zhisong,ZHOU Zhen.Reliability analysis of water supply network system for mine dust-proofing in GO methodology[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2010,10(28):6989-6993.
[7]邓建,边利,彭怀生.一种新的蒙特卡罗随机有限元方法[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2006,37(5):998-1000.DENG Jian,BIAN Li,PENG Huaisheng.A new Monte-Carlo stochastic finite element method[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2006,37(5):998-1000.
[8]章征宝,余云进,徐得潜,等.基于蒙特卡罗法的城市给水管网可靠性分析[J].给水排水,2007,33(7):106-110.ZHANG Zhengbao,YU Yunjin,XU Deqian,et al.The reliability analysis of urban water distribution network based on Monte-Carlo method[J].Water&Wastewater Engineering,2007,33(7):106-110.
[9]李龙云.蒙特卡罗法在给水管网可靠性评价中的应用[D].上海:同济大学环境科学与工程学院,2009:13-14.LI Longyun.Application of Monte-Carlo method in reliability evaluation of water distribution network[D].Shanghai:Tongji University.College of Environment Science and Engineering,2009:13-14.
[10]黄美发,景晖,匡兵,等.基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的测量不确定度评定[J].仪器仪表学报,2009,30(1):120-124.HUANG Meifa,JING Hui,KUANG Bing,et al.Measurement uncertainty evaluation based on quasi Monte-Carlo method[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument,2009,30(1):120-124.
[11]赖斯,卢秀玉.蒙特卡罗方法与拟蒙特卡罗方法解线性方程组[J].东华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,36(2):224-227.LAI Siyan,LU Xiuyu.The Monte Carlo methods and Quasi Monte Carlo methods for systems of linear algebraic equations[J].Journal of Donghua University(Natural Science),2010,36(2):224-227.
[12]朱尧辰.点集偏差引论[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2011:190-193.ZHU Yaochen.Point set deviation introduction[M].Hefei:University of Science and Technology China Press,2011:190-193.
[13]朱云飞,罗彪,郑金华,等.基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的进化算法搜索鲁棒最优解的性能提高研究[J].模式识别与人工智能,2011,24(2):201-204.ZHU Yunfei,LUO Biao,ZHENG Jinhua,et al.Research on increasing the performance of evolutionary algorithm in searching robust optimal solutions based on Quasi-Monte Carlo method[J].Pattern Recognition&Artificial Intelligence,2011,24(2):201-204.
[14]郭辉,姬红兵,武斌.采用拟蒙特卡罗法的被动多传感器目标跟踪[J].西安电子科技大学学报(自然科学版),2010,37(6):1042-1046.GUO Hui,JI Hongbing,WU Bin.Quasi-Monte Carlo Gaussian particle filter based target tracking for the multiple passive sensor[J].Journal of Xidian University(Natural Science),2010,37(6):1042-1046.
[15]罗付岩,徐海云.拟蒙特卡罗模拟方法在金融计算中的应用研究[J].数理统计与管理,2008,27(4):605-609.LUO Fuyan,XU Haiyun.The applying of Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in financial computation[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2008,27(4):605-609.
[16]Antonov I A,Saleev V M.An economic method of computing LP-sequences[J].USSR Comput Math Math Phys,1979,19:252-256.
[17]Tabesh M,Tanyimboh T T,Burrows R.Head driven simulation based reliability of water distribution network[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2001,127(4):206-209.