北京市生物质废弃物资源化利用潜力评估
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摘要
针对北京市废弃生物质资源进行系统调研和初步评估,估算北京市的废弃生物质资源潜力,由目前生物质资源的保有量数据构建了ARIMA模型,对北京市潜在废弃生物质资源进行预测,估算未来几年生物质废弃物资源化利用量,为生物质能替代化石能源,减小北京能源供应压力提供依据。研究结果表明:2017年北京市农业生物质废弃物的资源化利用潜力为44.08万t标煤,未来可开发量趋于平稳;2017年餐厨垃圾的资源化利用潜力为46.81万t标煤,未来总量仍不断增长,可开发潜力巨大。
On the basis of preliminary evaluation of Beijing's biomass waste, this study had estimated the biomass waste resource potential of Beijing, and we constructed a ARIMA model to predict the potential of biomass waste in Beijing according to the current biomass resource inventory data, then we estimated the biomass waste resource utilization in the next few years, in order to provide biomass energy to replace fossil energy and reduce the pressure of energy supply. The results showed that: there are 4.408×105t standard coal in agricultural biomass waste resource utilization potential, and the future development tends to be stable; there are 4.681×105t standard coal of kitchen waste resource utilization can be used in 2017, the future total gross is still growing with great potential in development.
On the basis of preliminary evaluation of Beijing's biomass waste, this study had estimated the biomass waste resource potential of Beijing, and we constructed a ARIMA model to predict the potential of biomass waste in Beijing according to the current biomass resource inventory data, then we estimated the biomass waste resource utilization in the next few years, in order to provide biomass energy to replace fossil energy and reduce the pressure of energy supply. The results showed that: there are 4.408×105t standard coal in agricultural biomass waste resource utilization potential, and the future development tends to be stable; there are 4.681×105t standard coal of kitchen waste resource utilization can be used in 2017, the future total gross is still growing with great potential in development.
引文
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[13]日本能源学会,史仲平,华兆哲.生物质和生物质能源手册[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006.[13]Japan's Energy Institute,Shi Zhongping,Hua Zhaozhe.Biomass and Biomass Manual[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2006.
[14]Murphy J D,Power N.Technical and economic analysis of biogas production in Ireland utilizing three different crop rotations[J].Applied Energy,2009,86(1):25-36.
[15]Paul Crompton,Yanrui Wu.Energy consumption in China:Past trends and future directions[J].Energy Economics,2006,28(5):195-208.
[16]P E Morthorst.A green certificate market combined with a liberalized Power market[J].Energy Policy,2003,31(13):1393-1402.
[17]Angel Ramos Radio,Ernesto Hontoria Garcia,Bagona Moreno Escobar,et al.Solar energy in Andalusia present state and prospects for the future[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2007,11(1):148-161.
[2]崔明,赵立欣,田宜水,等.中国主要农作物秸秆资源能源化利用分析评价[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(12):291-296.[2]Cui Ming,Zhao Lixin,Tian Yishui,et al.Analysis and evaluation on energy utilization of main crop straw resources in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2008,24(12):291-296.
[3]徐庆福,王立海.现有生物质能转换利用技术综合评价[J].森林工程,2007,23(4):8-11.[3]Xu Qingfu,Wang Lihai.Evaluation of utilization technologies for bioenergy conversion[J].Forest Engineering,2007,23(4):8-11.
[4]任峰.商品粮种植乡生物质废弃物回收利用规划研究[D].天津:天津大学,2011.[4]Ren Feng.Commodity grain growing township biomass waste recycling planning study[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2011.
[5]王久臣,戴林,田宜水,等.中国生物质能产业发展现状及趋势分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(9):276-282.[5]Wang Jiuchen,Dai Lin,Tian Yishui,et al.Analysis of the development status and trends of biomass energy industry in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2007,23(9):276-282.
[6]王长贵,崔永强,周篁.新能源发电技术[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003.42-46.[6]Wang Changgui,Cui Yongqiang,Zhou Huang.New Energy Power Generation Technology[M].Beijing:China Power Press,2003.42-46.
[7]毕于运.秸秆资源评价与利用研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2010.[7]Bi Yuyun.Study on straw resources evaluation and utilization in China[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2010.
[8]张保霞,付婉霞.北京市餐厨垃圾产生量调查分析[J].环境科学与技术,2010,33(S2):651-654.[8]Zhang Baoxia,Fu Wanxia.The investigation and analysis on per capita output of food waste in Beijing[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2010,33(S2):651-654.
[9]范剑青,姚琦伟.非线性时间序列:建模、预报及应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.[9]Fan Jianqing,Yao Qiwei.Nonlinear Time Series:Modeling,Forecasting and Application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2005.
[10]张培栋,杨艳丽,李光全,等.中国农作物秸秆能源化潜力估算[J].可再生能源,2007,25(6):80-83.[10]Zhang Peidong,Yang Yanli,Li Guangquan,et al.Energy potentiality of crop straw resources in China[J].Renewable Energy Resources,2007,25(6):80-83.
[11]谢光辉,王晓玉,任兰天.中国作物秸秆资源评估研究现状[J].生物工程学报,2010,26(7):855-863.[11]Xie Guanghui,Wang Xiaoyu,Ren Lantian.China's crop residues resources evaluation[J].Chinese Journal of Biotechnology,2010,26(7):855-863.
[12]刘刚,沈镭.中国生物质能源的定量评价及其地理分布[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(1):9-19.[12]Liu Gang,Shen Lei.Quantitive appraisal of biomass energy and its geographical distribution in China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(1):9-19.
[13]日本能源学会,史仲平,华兆哲.生物质和生物质能源手册[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006.[13]Japan's Energy Institute,Shi Zhongping,Hua Zhaozhe.Biomass and Biomass Manual[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2006.
[14]Murphy J D,Power N.Technical and economic analysis of biogas production in Ireland utilizing three different crop rotations[J].Applied Energy,2009,86(1):25-36.
[15]Paul Crompton,Yanrui Wu.Energy consumption in China:Past trends and future directions[J].Energy Economics,2006,28(5):195-208.
[16]P E Morthorst.A green certificate market combined with a liberalized Power market[J].Energy Policy,2003,31(13):1393-1402.
[17]Angel Ramos Radio,Ernesto Hontoria Garcia,Bagona Moreno Escobar,et al.Solar energy in Andalusia present state and prospects for the future[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2007,11(1):148-161.