双寡头竞争环境下新产品扩散的仿真分析
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摘要
鉴于竞争的市场环境更加普遍,以双寡头竞争背景下的新产品扩散为对象,采用多智能体建模方法分析了复杂社会关系网络下新产品扩散的过程和结果。通过多智能体仿真,对比分析了包括企业的外部影响因素、产品之间相互影响以及消费者之间社会关系网络对竞争产品的扩散的影响。仿真结果表明异质性较强的无标度网络能够放大优势企业和优势产品的领先优势。因此,线下社交网络更加适合水平差异化产品的扩散,而线上社交网络更适合垂直差异化产品的扩散。
Since competing market is increasingly popular in the real world,a new product diffusion problem was addressed under a duopoly market environment.In order to explore diffusion process and final market share of new product growth,the methodology of multi-agent-based modeling was adopted to solve the problems.By multi-agent simulation approach,the impact of the external influence factor by the firms,the internal influence factor by interacted products,along with the internal influence by social network among consumers were analyzed.The simulation results uncover that the heterogeneity of scale-free social network will enlarge the dominated firm and the dominated product.Therefore,online social network is suitable for the products with the vertical differentiation,while offline social network is suitable for the products with the horizontal differentiation.
Since competing market is increasingly popular in the real world,a new product diffusion problem was addressed under a duopoly market environment.In order to explore diffusion process and final market share of new product growth,the methodology of multi-agent-based modeling was adopted to solve the problems.By multi-agent simulation approach,the impact of the external influence factor by the firms,the internal influence factor by interacted products,along with the internal influence by social network among consumers were analyzed.The simulation results uncover that the heterogeneity of scale-free social network will enlarge the dominated firm and the dominated product.Therefore,online social network is suitable for the products with the vertical differentiation,while offline social network is suitable for the products with the horizontal differentiation.
引文
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[2] Zanette D H.Dynamics of rumor propagation on small-world networks[J].Physical Review E,2002,65(1):041908.
[3] Bass F M.A new product growth for model consumer durables[J].Management Science,1969,15(5):215-227.
[4] 石泉龙,王丽亚,吴明兴.基于Bass模型的产品功能疲劳预测[J].工业工程与管理,2014,19(2):62-67.
[5] Norton J A,Bass F M.A diffusion theory model of adoption and substitution for successive generations of high-technology products[J].Management Science,1987,33(9):1069-1086.
[6] Savin S,Terwiesch C.Optimal product launch times in a duopoly:balancing life-cycle revenues with product cost[J].Operations Research,2005,53(1):26-47.
[7] Toubia O,Goldenberg J,Garcia R.Improving penetration forecasts using social interactions data[J].Management Science,2014,60(12):3049-3066.
[8] 魏莹,李锋.广告和口碑共同作用下的两阶段产品定价问题[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017,23(11):2541-2552.
[9] Bulte C V,Joshi Y V.New-product diffusion with influentials and imitators[J].Marketing Science,2007,26(3):400-421.
[10] Garber T,Goldenberg J,Libai B,et al.From density to destiny:using spatial dimension of sales data for early prediction of new product success[J].Marketing Science,2004,23(3):419-428.
[11] Stummer C,Kiesling E,Gunther M,et al.Innovation diffusion of repeat purchase products in a competitive market:an agent-based simulation approach[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,245(1):157-167.
[12] Mellor A,Mobilia M,Redner S,et al.Influence of luddism on innovation diffusion[J].Physical Review E,2015,92:012806.
[13] 谢建中,杨育,陈倩,等.基于改进BASS模型的短生命周期产品需求预测模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(1):48-56.
[14] 李锋,魏莹.小世界网络环境下谣言传播对产品定价的影响[J].系统仿真学报,2018,30(2):533-542.
[15] Barabasi A L,Albert R.Emergence of scaling in random networks[J].Science,1999,286(5439):509-512.