认知闭合需要对城市人口养老决策的影响
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摘要
在中国面临严峻的人口老龄化挑战的大背景下,以昆明市城市人口为样本,实证分析了认知闭合需要对个体养老决策过程的影响。通过Logistic回归,发现城市居民的认知闭合需要越高,越倾向于依靠他人而非自己作出养老决策;通过OLS回归,证实了认知闭合水平越高,城市居民越容易作出与父母养老现状类似的养老决策。这一研究结果可促进未来养老领域的跨学科交叉研究,在实践上能帮助养老机构未来进行精准营销,也可提供人口的认知特征以供政府更好地制定与养老相关的政策。
Population aging has become a major concern in China. By sampling urban residents in Kunming,this paper empirically examines individual's decision-making process for elderly care from the perspective of need for cognitive closure. Through the Logistic regression analysis,the study finds that the individuals with high level of need for cognitive closure are more likely to refer to others' points of view when making elderly care decisions. According to the results of the OLS regression,this study also confirms that urban residents' need for cognitive closure is positively related to the consistency between their elderly care intentions and the care conditions of their parents. The findings of this study can promote the interdisciplinary research on elderly care for Chinese urban residents. In practice,they can help business for elderly care to implement the precise marketing,and provide the government with cognitive evidences to propose policies related to the elderly care.
Population aging has become a major concern in China. By sampling urban residents in Kunming,this paper empirically examines individual's decision-making process for elderly care from the perspective of need for cognitive closure. Through the Logistic regression analysis,the study finds that the individuals with high level of need for cognitive closure are more likely to refer to others' points of view when making elderly care decisions. According to the results of the OLS regression,this study also confirms that urban residents' need for cognitive closure is positively related to the consistency between their elderly care intentions and the care conditions of their parents. The findings of this study can promote the interdisciplinary research on elderly care for Chinese urban residents. In practice,they can help business for elderly care to implement the precise marketing,and provide the government with cognitive evidences to propose policies related to the elderly care.
引文
[1]人民网.人口老龄化趋势难逆转[EB/OL].[2018-06-28].http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0630/c1002-29372969.html.
[2]王璐.浅析认知闭合需要研究现状[J].学理论,2014(36):40-41.
[3] Kruglanski A W. The psychology of being"right":The problem of accuracy in social perception and cognition[J]. Psychological Bulletin,1989,106(3):395-409.
[4]何圆.基于微观主体养老目的的生育与退休决策[D].大连:东北财经大学,2015:20-22.
[5]陈赛权.中国养老模式研究综述[J].人口学刊,2000(3):30-36,51.
[6]穆光宗.我们需要什么样的“养老”理论?[J].金秋科苑,1997(4):43-44.
[7]丁方,翟晓祯,何林峰,等.我国养老模式研究综述[J].中国市场,2014(51):101-103.
[8]穆光宗.中国传统养老方式的变革和展望[J].中国人民大学学报,2000(5):39-44.
[9]程远,张真.上海市区老年人养老意愿研究[J].市场与人口分析,1999(4):31-35.
[10]李建新,于学军,王广州,等.中国农村养老意愿和养老方式的研究[J].人口与经济,2004(5):7-12,39.
[11]孙鹃娟,沈定.中国老年人口的养老意愿及其城乡差异——基于中国老年社会追踪调查数据的分析[J].人口与经济,2017(2):11-20.
[12]赵锋.不同子女数量农户的生计资本对养老意愿的影响——基于甘肃省5县区调查[J].西北民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015(3):99-106.
[13]宋宝安.老年人口养老意愿的社会学分析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006(4):90-97.
[14]程亮.老由谁养:养老意愿及其影响因素——基于2010年中国综合社会调查的实证研究[J].兰州学刊,2014(7):131-138.
[15] Webster D M,Kruglanski A W. Individual differences in need for cognitive closure[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1994,67(6):1049-1062.
[16] Mannetti L,Pierro A,Kruglanski A. Who regrets more after choosing a non-status-quo option? Post decisional regret under need for cognitive closure[J]. Journal of Economic Psychology,2007,28(2):186-196.
[17]何娇.认知闭合需要对高中生志愿选择过程中决策机制的影响[D].重庆:西南大学,2010:12-32.
[18]刘雪峰,张志学.认知闭合需要研究评述[J].心理科学进展,2009,17(1):51-55.
[19] Hiel A V,Mervielde I. Effects of ambiguity and need for closure on the acquisition of information[J]. Social Cognition,2002,20(5):380-408.
[20] Tversky A,Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty:Heuristics and biases[J]. Science,1974,185(4157):1124-1131.
[21] Kossowska M,Hiel A V. The relationship between need for closure and conservative beliefs in western and eastern Europe[J]. Political Psychology,2003,24(3):501-518.
[22] Acar-Burkay S,Fennis B M,Warlop L. Trusting others:The polarization effect of need for closure[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,2014,107(4):719-735.
[23] Strull W M,Lo B,Charles G. Do patients want to participate in medical decision making?[J]. The Journal of the American Medical Association,1984,252(21):2990-2994.
[24]顾辉.教育:社会阶层再生产的预演一项对H市两所高中的研究[D].上海:上海大学,2010:83-136.
[25] Kruglanski A W. Psychology of closed-mindedness[M]. New York:Psychology Press,2004:21-58.
[26] Kruglanski A W,Webster D M. Motivated closing of the mind:"Seizing"and"freezing."[J]. Psychological Review,1996,103(2):263-283.
[27]刘雪峰,张志学,梁钧平.认知闭合需要、框架效应与决策偏好[J].心理学报,2007(4):611-618.
[28] Podsakoff P M,Mac Kenzie S B,Lee J Y,et al. Common method biases in behavioral research:A critical review of the literature and recommended remedies[J]. Journal of Applied Psychology,2003,88(5):879-903.
[29]周浩,龙立荣.共同方法偏差的统计检验与控制方法[J].心理科学进展,2004(6):942-950.
[30] Neuberg S L,Judice T,West S G. What the need for closure scale measures and what it does not:Toward differentiating among related epistemic motives[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1997,72(6):13961412.
[2]王璐.浅析认知闭合需要研究现状[J].学理论,2014(36):40-41.
[3] Kruglanski A W. The psychology of being"right":The problem of accuracy in social perception and cognition[J]. Psychological Bulletin,1989,106(3):395-409.
[4]何圆.基于微观主体养老目的的生育与退休决策[D].大连:东北财经大学,2015:20-22.
[5]陈赛权.中国养老模式研究综述[J].人口学刊,2000(3):30-36,51.
[6]穆光宗.我们需要什么样的“养老”理论?[J].金秋科苑,1997(4):43-44.
[7]丁方,翟晓祯,何林峰,等.我国养老模式研究综述[J].中国市场,2014(51):101-103.
[8]穆光宗.中国传统养老方式的变革和展望[J].中国人民大学学报,2000(5):39-44.
[9]程远,张真.上海市区老年人养老意愿研究[J].市场与人口分析,1999(4):31-35.
[10]李建新,于学军,王广州,等.中国农村养老意愿和养老方式的研究[J].人口与经济,2004(5):7-12,39.
[11]孙鹃娟,沈定.中国老年人口的养老意愿及其城乡差异——基于中国老年社会追踪调查数据的分析[J].人口与经济,2017(2):11-20.
[12]赵锋.不同子女数量农户的生计资本对养老意愿的影响——基于甘肃省5县区调查[J].西北民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015(3):99-106.
[13]宋宝安.老年人口养老意愿的社会学分析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006(4):90-97.
[14]程亮.老由谁养:养老意愿及其影响因素——基于2010年中国综合社会调查的实证研究[J].兰州学刊,2014(7):131-138.
[15] Webster D M,Kruglanski A W. Individual differences in need for cognitive closure[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1994,67(6):1049-1062.
[16] Mannetti L,Pierro A,Kruglanski A. Who regrets more after choosing a non-status-quo option? Post decisional regret under need for cognitive closure[J]. Journal of Economic Psychology,2007,28(2):186-196.
[17]何娇.认知闭合需要对高中生志愿选择过程中决策机制的影响[D].重庆:西南大学,2010:12-32.
[18]刘雪峰,张志学.认知闭合需要研究评述[J].心理科学进展,2009,17(1):51-55.
[19] Hiel A V,Mervielde I. Effects of ambiguity and need for closure on the acquisition of information[J]. Social Cognition,2002,20(5):380-408.
[20] Tversky A,Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty:Heuristics and biases[J]. Science,1974,185(4157):1124-1131.
[21] Kossowska M,Hiel A V. The relationship between need for closure and conservative beliefs in western and eastern Europe[J]. Political Psychology,2003,24(3):501-518.
[22] Acar-Burkay S,Fennis B M,Warlop L. Trusting others:The polarization effect of need for closure[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,2014,107(4):719-735.
[23] Strull W M,Lo B,Charles G. Do patients want to participate in medical decision making?[J]. The Journal of the American Medical Association,1984,252(21):2990-2994.
[24]顾辉.教育:社会阶层再生产的预演一项对H市两所高中的研究[D].上海:上海大学,2010:83-136.
[25] Kruglanski A W. Psychology of closed-mindedness[M]. New York:Psychology Press,2004:21-58.
[26] Kruglanski A W,Webster D M. Motivated closing of the mind:"Seizing"and"freezing."[J]. Psychological Review,1996,103(2):263-283.
[27]刘雪峰,张志学,梁钧平.认知闭合需要、框架效应与决策偏好[J].心理学报,2007(4):611-618.
[28] Podsakoff P M,Mac Kenzie S B,Lee J Y,et al. Common method biases in behavioral research:A critical review of the literature and recommended remedies[J]. Journal of Applied Psychology,2003,88(5):879-903.
[29]周浩,龙立荣.共同方法偏差的统计检验与控制方法[J].心理科学进展,2004(6):942-950.
[30] Neuberg S L,Judice T,West S G. What the need for closure scale measures and what it does not:Toward differentiating among related epistemic motives[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1997,72(6):13961412.