地震人员伤亡评估理论及应用研究
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摘要
地震是造成我国巨大人员伤亡的主要灾害之一,震后人员伤亡的快速评估对于应急抗震救援工作具有重要指导意义。通过分析影响地震灾害人员伤亡的主要因素,调查统计不同使用功能建筑物中人员密度、不同时间段人员在室率及不同结构破坏状态下的伤亡率,建立地震人员伤亡计算模型。基于实验数据所得的地震易损性曲线数据库对建筑物进行结构易损性分析,用研发的中国地震灾害损失评估系统软件(CEDLAS),对西安市灞桥区进行震后人员伤亡评估,并与汶川地震实际震害数据和其他经验模型对比,验证了该理论方法的可行性及合理性,为震后政府启动地震应急预案和组织开展抗震救灾工作提供参考。
Earthquakes are one of the major disasters causing huge casualties in China. Rapid casualty estimates after earthquake are of great guiding significance for emergency earthquake relief work. In this study, a model for the estimation of the earthquake casualties was established by analyzing the main factors that affect the earthquake casualties and investigating the people density in different functional buildings, the indoor rate in different time periods and the casualty rate under different-level damages of different structures. Based on the seismic vulnerability curve database obtained from the experimental data, the structural vulnerability of buildings was analyzed. The casualty estimates of Baqiao District in Xi'an were obtained by the software called China Earthquake Disaster Loss Assessment System Software(CEDLAS), which was developed by the writers′research group. Comparing with the actual earthquake damage data of the Wenchuan Earthquake and another empirical model, the feasibility and rationality of the theoretical method were verified. The method provides reference for the government to initiate earthquake emergency plan and organize earthquake relief work after the earthquake.
Earthquakes are one of the major disasters causing huge casualties in China. Rapid casualty estimates after earthquake are of great guiding significance for emergency earthquake relief work. In this study, a model for the estimation of the earthquake casualties was established by analyzing the main factors that affect the earthquake casualties and investigating the people density in different functional buildings, the indoor rate in different time periods and the casualty rate under different-level damages of different structures. Based on the seismic vulnerability curve database obtained from the experimental data, the structural vulnerability of buildings was analyzed. The casualty estimates of Baqiao District in Xi'an were obtained by the software called China Earthquake Disaster Loss Assessment System Software(CEDLAS), which was developed by the writers′research group. Comparing with the actual earthquake damage data of the Wenchuan Earthquake and another empirical model, the feasibility and rationality of the theoretical method were verified. The method provides reference for the government to initiate earthquake emergency plan and organize earthquake relief work after the earthquake.
引文
[1] 尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.YI ZQ.A Method for Predicting Earthquake Disaster Loss[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1996.(in Chinese)
[2] 马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.MA YH,XIE LL.Methodologies for assessment of earthquake casualty[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,20(4):140-147.(in Chinese)
[3] COBURN A,SPENCE R.Earthquake Protection[M],2nd Ed.,John Wiley and Sons,London,2002.
[4] Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) – National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS).Earthquake loss estimation methodology—HAZUS97,Technical manual[R].Washington,D.C:Federal Emergency Management Agency,1997.
[5] 李媛媛,陈建国,张小乐,等.基于建筑结构破坏的地震伤亡评估方法及应用[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2015,55(7):803-807+814.LI YY,CHEN JG,ZHANG XL,et al.Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates[J].Journal of Tsinghua university (Science & Technology),2015,55(7):803-807+814.(in Chinese)
[6] JAISWAL KS,WALD DJ,HEARNE M.Estimating casualties for large earthquakes worldwide using an empirical approach[R]:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report OF 2009–1136,78 p.
[7] 黄星,孙明.基于RBF神经网络的震伤人员快速评估模型[J].系统工程,2016,34(8):129-135.HUANG X,SUN M.The rapid assessment of wounded personnel based on RBF neural network model under the background earthquake disaster.[J].Systems Engineering,2016,34(8):129-135.(in Chinese)
[8] 徐超,刘爱文,温增平.汶川地震都江堰市人员伤亡研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2012,32(1):182-188.XU C,LIU AW,WEN ZP.Study on casualties of Dujiangyan city in Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Reathquanke Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2012,32(1):182-188.(in Chinese)
[9] 陈洪富,戴君武,孙柏涛,等.玉树7.1级地震人员伤亡影响因素调查与初步分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2011,31(4):18-25.CHEN HF,DAI JW,SUN BT,et al.Inversigation report on influence factors of casualties in April 14.2010 Yushu earthquake[J].Journal of Eathquanke Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2011,31(4):18-25.(in Chinese)
[10] COBURN AW,PORNONIS A,SAKAI S.Assessing strategies to reduce fatalities in earthquakes[C].Proceedings of international workshops on earthquake injury epidermology for mitigation and response,107～132,Baltimore,Maryland,1989.
[11] GB/T 24335-2009 建(构)筑物地震破坏等级划分[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2009.GB/T 24335-2009,Classification of Earthquake Damage to Buildings and Special Structures[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2009.(in Chinese)
[12] 尹之潜.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1991(4):87-96.YI ZQ.A Study for Predicting Earthquake Disaster Loss[M].Journal of Eathquanke Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1991(4):87-96.(in Chinese)
[13] 王开顺.震害预测简易法[J].工程抗震,1990(2):29-33+43.WANG KS.A simple method of predicting earthquake damage[J].Earthquake Resistant Engineering,1990(2):29-33+43.(in Chinese)
[14] 郑山锁,张艺欣,秦卿,等.RC框架核心筒结构的地震易损性研究[J].振动与冲击,2016,35(23):106-113.ZHENG Shansuo,ZHANG Yixin,QIN Qing,et al.Seismic fragility of RC frame-core wall structures[J].Journal of vibration and shock,2016,31(3):1-7+19.(in Chinese)
[15] 胡少卿,孙柏涛,王东明.基于建筑物易损性分类的群体震害预测方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2010,30(3):96-101.HU Shaoqing,SUN Baita,WANG Dongming A method for earthquake damage prediction of building group based on building vulnerability classification[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2010,30(03):96-101.(in Chinese)
[16] 郑山锁,相泽辉,郑捷,等.我国建筑物地震保险制度及保险费率厘定研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(3):1-7+19.ZHENG Shansuo,XIANG Zehui,ZHENG Jie,et al.Study on the earthquake insurance system and determination of insurance premium rate of buildings in China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(3):1-7+19.(in Chinese)
[17] GB/T 17742-2008,中国地震烈度表[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008.GB/T 17742-2008,The Chinese Scismic Intensity Scale[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China.2008.(in Chinese)
[18] 于晓辉,吕大刚,范峰.基于易损性指数的钢筋混凝土框架结构地震损伤评估[J].工程力学,2017,34(1):69-75+100.YU Xiaohui,LU Dagang,FAN Feng.Seismic damage assessment of frame structures based on vulnerability index[J].Engineering Mechanics,2017,34(1):69-75+100.(in Chinese)
[19] 俞言祥,汪素云.中国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系[J].震灾防御技术,2006(3):206-217.YU YX,WANG SY.Attenuation relations for horizontal peak ground acceleration and response spectrum in eastern and western China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2006(3):206-217.(in Chinese)
[20] 李小军,彭青.不同类别场地地震动参数的计算分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2001,21(1):29-36.LI XJ,PENG Q.Calculation and analysis of earthquake ground motion parameters for different site categories[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2001,21(1):29-36.(in Chinese)
[21] 吴昊昱,闫正萃,董康义,等.都江堰市汶川地震死亡人数的时空分布研究[J].山西地震,2011(4):40-45.WU HY,YAN ZC,DONG KY,et al.Study on space-time distribution of death toll of Dujiangyan in the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2011(4):40-45.(in Chinese)
[22] 李媛媛,翁文国,张小乐,等.云南地区地震死亡人数快速估算:以鲁甸6.5级地震为例[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2015,55(3):368-372.LI YY,WENG WG,ZHANG XL,et al.Prompt seismic fatality estimates for Yunnan province:A case study of the Ms 6.5 Ludian earthquake[J].Journal of Tsinghua University (Science & Technology),2015,55(3):368-372.(in Chinese)
[2] 马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.MA YH,XIE LL.Methodologies for assessment of earthquake casualty[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,20(4):140-147.(in Chinese)
[3] COBURN A,SPENCE R.Earthquake Protection[M],2nd Ed.,John Wiley and Sons,London,2002.
[4] Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) – National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS).Earthquake loss estimation methodology—HAZUS97,Technical manual[R].Washington,D.C:Federal Emergency Management Agency,1997.
[5] 李媛媛,陈建国,张小乐,等.基于建筑结构破坏的地震伤亡评估方法及应用[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2015,55(7):803-807+814.LI YY,CHEN JG,ZHANG XL,et al.Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates[J].Journal of Tsinghua university (Science & Technology),2015,55(7):803-807+814.(in Chinese)
[6] JAISWAL KS,WALD DJ,HEARNE M.Estimating casualties for large earthquakes worldwide using an empirical approach[R]:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report OF 2009–1136,78 p.
[7] 黄星,孙明.基于RBF神经网络的震伤人员快速评估模型[J].系统工程,2016,34(8):129-135.HUANG X,SUN M.The rapid assessment of wounded personnel based on RBF neural network model under the background earthquake disaster.[J].Systems Engineering,2016,34(8):129-135.(in Chinese)
[8] 徐超,刘爱文,温增平.汶川地震都江堰市人员伤亡研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2012,32(1):182-188.XU C,LIU AW,WEN ZP.Study on casualties of Dujiangyan city in Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Reathquanke Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2012,32(1):182-188.(in Chinese)
[9] 陈洪富,戴君武,孙柏涛,等.玉树7.1级地震人员伤亡影响因素调查与初步分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2011,31(4):18-25.CHEN HF,DAI JW,SUN BT,et al.Inversigation report on influence factors of casualties in April 14.2010 Yushu earthquake[J].Journal of Eathquanke Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2011,31(4):18-25.(in Chinese)
[10] COBURN AW,PORNONIS A,SAKAI S.Assessing strategies to reduce fatalities in earthquakes[C].Proceedings of international workshops on earthquake injury epidermology for mitigation and response,107～132,Baltimore,Maryland,1989.
[11] GB/T 24335-2009 建(构)筑物地震破坏等级划分[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2009.GB/T 24335-2009,Classification of Earthquake Damage to Buildings and Special Structures[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2009.(in Chinese)
[12] 尹之潜.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1991(4):87-96.YI ZQ.A Study for Predicting Earthquake Disaster Loss[M].Journal of Eathquanke Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1991(4):87-96.(in Chinese)
[13] 王开顺.震害预测简易法[J].工程抗震,1990(2):29-33+43.WANG KS.A simple method of predicting earthquake damage[J].Earthquake Resistant Engineering,1990(2):29-33+43.(in Chinese)
[14] 郑山锁,张艺欣,秦卿,等.RC框架核心筒结构的地震易损性研究[J].振动与冲击,2016,35(23):106-113.ZHENG Shansuo,ZHANG Yixin,QIN Qing,et al.Seismic fragility of RC frame-core wall structures[J].Journal of vibration and shock,2016,31(3):1-7+19.(in Chinese)
[15] 胡少卿,孙柏涛,王东明.基于建筑物易损性分类的群体震害预测方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2010,30(3):96-101.HU Shaoqing,SUN Baita,WANG Dongming A method for earthquake damage prediction of building group based on building vulnerability classification[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2010,30(03):96-101.(in Chinese)
[16] 郑山锁,相泽辉,郑捷,等.我国建筑物地震保险制度及保险费率厘定研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(3):1-7+19.ZHENG Shansuo,XIANG Zehui,ZHENG Jie,et al.Study on the earthquake insurance system and determination of insurance premium rate of buildings in China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(3):1-7+19.(in Chinese)
[17] GB/T 17742-2008,中国地震烈度表[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008.GB/T 17742-2008,The Chinese Scismic Intensity Scale[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China.2008.(in Chinese)
[18] 于晓辉,吕大刚,范峰.基于易损性指数的钢筋混凝土框架结构地震损伤评估[J].工程力学,2017,34(1):69-75+100.YU Xiaohui,LU Dagang,FAN Feng.Seismic damage assessment of frame structures based on vulnerability index[J].Engineering Mechanics,2017,34(1):69-75+100.(in Chinese)
[19] 俞言祥,汪素云.中国东部和西部地区水平向基岩加速度反应谱衰减关系[J].震灾防御技术,2006(3):206-217.YU YX,WANG SY.Attenuation relations for horizontal peak ground acceleration and response spectrum in eastern and western China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2006(3):206-217.(in Chinese)
[20] 李小军,彭青.不同类别场地地震动参数的计算分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2001,21(1):29-36.LI XJ,PENG Q.Calculation and analysis of earthquake ground motion parameters for different site categories[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2001,21(1):29-36.(in Chinese)
[21] 吴昊昱,闫正萃,董康义,等.都江堰市汶川地震死亡人数的时空分布研究[J].山西地震,2011(4):40-45.WU HY,YAN ZC,DONG KY,et al.Study on space-time distribution of death toll of Dujiangyan in the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2011(4):40-45.(in Chinese)
[22] 李媛媛,翁文国,张小乐,等.云南地区地震死亡人数快速估算:以鲁甸6.5级地震为例[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2015,55(3):368-372.LI YY,WENG WG,ZHANG XL,et al.Prompt seismic fatality estimates for Yunnan province:A case study of the Ms 6.5 Ludian earthquake[J].Journal of Tsinghua University (Science & Technology),2015,55(3):368-372.(in Chinese)