我国非油气资源矿种需求评价及优先勘查序列厘定
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摘要
重点勘查矿种优先序列评价对新时期我国地质勘查工作科学部署、提高勘查效果、有效缓解资源压力具有重要的先导意义。本文在合理研判未来20年我国主要非油气矿产资源需求趋势的基础上,厘定了矿产的优先勘查序列。首先根据我国矿产资源的供需特征从134种矿产中初步筛选出48种作为评价样本;然后建立了包括资源安全程度、经济意义、国防和战略意义以及资源勘查前景等4项二级指标和未来需求趋势等11项三级指标的重点勘查矿种评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法进行了系统评价;最后,结合共伴生等影响因素,对优先勘查矿种进行了合理归并,确立了我国非油气矿产勘查的4级优先序列:1)重点勘查矿种:铜(钴、碲)、铀等;2)优先勘查矿种:锡(铋、钪)、石墨、萤石等;3)次优先勘查矿种:银、钼(铼、硒)等;4)一般勘查矿种:金刚石、叶蜡石等。
The choice of the most important minerals for exploration is of great guiding significance for the promotion of scientific deployment, improvement of the exploration work and alleviation of the pressure on resource supply effectively in the new period. In this paper the authors determined the priority sequence of mineral exploration on the basis of judging demand trends reasonably in the next 20 years. Firstly, 48 minerals were preliminarily screened out from 134 kinds of minerals for further evaluation by analyzing minerals' supply and demand characteristics and establishing four principles. Secondly, the evaluation index system was established, which included 4 secondary indicators(resource insecurity, economic significance, defense and strategy significance, and exploration prospects) and 11 third-level indicators such as future demand trends. Then the importance ranking of 48 minerals was obtained with AHP. Lastly, some minerals were merged based on the consideration of the associated mineral resources, and then four-grade priority sequence for non-oil mineral exploration was determined: 1) Focused exploration minerals such as copper(cobalt) and uranium; 2) Priority exploration minerals such as Tin, graphite and fluorite; 3) Second priority exploration minerals such as silver, molybdenum and gold; 4) General exploration minerals such as diamond and pyrophyllite.
The choice of the most important minerals for exploration is of great guiding significance for the promotion of scientific deployment, improvement of the exploration work and alleviation of the pressure on resource supply effectively in the new period. In this paper the authors determined the priority sequence of mineral exploration on the basis of judging demand trends reasonably in the next 20 years. Firstly, 48 minerals were preliminarily screened out from 134 kinds of minerals for further evaluation by analyzing minerals' supply and demand characteristics and establishing four principles. Secondly, the evaluation index system was established, which included 4 secondary indicators(resource insecurity, economic significance, defense and strategy significance, and exploration prospects) and 11 third-level indicators such as future demand trends. Then the importance ranking of 48 minerals was obtained with AHP. Lastly, some minerals were merged based on the consideration of the associated mineral resources, and then four-grade priority sequence for non-oil mineral exploration was determined: 1) Focused exploration minerals such as copper(cobalt) and uranium; 2) Priority exploration minerals such as Tin, graphite and fluorite; 3) Second priority exploration minerals such as silver, molybdenum and gold; 4) General exploration minerals such as diamond and pyrophyllite.
引文
陈其慎,王安建,王高尚,杜学明,邢万里.2013.美国矿产资源消费图谱初探[J].中国矿业,22(5):8-14.
陈其慎,王高尚.2007.我国非能源战略性矿产的界定及其重要性评价[J].中国国土资源经济,(1):19-21,44-45.
费红彩,张玉华.2013.美国未来能源格局趋势与中国页岩气勘查现状[J].地球学报,34(3):375-380.
韩美玲,张德会.2010.世界黄金产业分析[J].资源与产业,12(4):100-106.
胡小平.2005.矿产资源供应安全评价[J].中国国土资源经济,(7):6-9.
贾木欣,王明燕,李艳峰,孙传尧.2013.我国钨资源矿石性质特点及资源利用存在的问题[J].矿冶,22(1):90-94.
孔锐,裴文林,曾祯.2011.我国重要矿产资源评价模型设计与研究[J].资源与产业,13(2):31-36.
李文芳,孔锐,王仁财.2008.我国重要矿产资源评价指标体系研究[J].中国国土资源经济,(7):26-29.
孙永波,汪云甲.2005.矿产资源安全评价指标体系与方法研究[J].中国矿业,14(4):36-37,81.
王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,于汶加.2010.矿产资源需求理论与模型预测[J].地球学报,31(2):137-147.
王安建.2010.世界资源格局与展望[J].地球学报,31(5):621-627.
王登红,王瑞江,李建康,赵芝,于扬,代晶晶,陈郑辉,李德先,屈文俊,邓茂春,付小方,孙艳,郑国栋.2013.中国三稀矿产资源战略调查研究进展综述路[J].中国地质,40(2):363-370.
王高尚.2010.后危机时代矿产品价格趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):629-634.
徐铭辰,王安建,陈其慎,杜雪明.2010.中国能源消费强度趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):720-726.
闫兴虎.2013.中国钼矿资源开发问题分析及对策[J].中国矿业,22(10):16-18.
于汶加,王安建,王高尚.2010.中国能源消费“零增长”何时到来[J].地球学报,31(5):635-644.
余良晖,马茁卉,周海东.2013.我国钨矿资源开发利用现状与发展建议[J].中国钨业,28(4):6-9.
余良晖,薛亚洲,贾文龙.2012.矿产地战略储备的矿种选择分析[J].中国矿业,21(6):5-8.
袁博,范继涛,余良晖.2011.我国锑资源形势分析及对策建议[J].中国国土资源经济,(3):47-49,56.
张晓佳,王高尚,陈其慎,彭颖.2010.我国区域性矿产资源需求差异与趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):679-685.
British Geological Survey.2012.Risk list 2012.An update to the supply risk index for elements or elements groups that are of economic value[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://www.bgs.ac.uk.
CHEN Qi-shen,WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,DU Xue-ming,XING Wan-li.2013.Discussion on mineral resources consumption altas of American[J].China Mining Magazine,22(5):8-14(in Chinese with English abstract).
CHEN Qi-shen,WANG Gao-shang.2007.Definition for Strategic Non-energy Minerals in China and Their Quantified Weighty Evaluation[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(1):19 -21,44-45(in Chinese with English abstract).
European Commission.2010.Critical raw materials for the EU-Report of the Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://ec.europa.eu.
FEI Hong-cai,ZHANG Yu-hua.2013.The Trend of US Future Energy Pattern and the Present Situation of China’s Shale Gas Exploration[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,34(3):375-380(in Chinese with English abstract).
HAN Mei-ling,ZHANG De-hui.2010.Analysis on world gold industry[J].Resources&Industries,12(4):100-106(in Chinese with English abstract).
HU Xiao-ping.2005.Evaluation on Mineral Resource Supply Security[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(7):6-9(in Chinese with English abstract).
JIA Mu-xin,WANG Ming-yan,LI Yan-feng,SUN Chuan-yao.2013.Characteristics of Chinese Tungsten ore and the Problems in the Tunsten resources utilization[J].Mining&Metallurgy,22(1):90-94(in Chinese with English abstract).
KONG Rui,PEI Wen-lin,ZENG Zhen.2011.Design and Study of Evaluation Model of China’s Vital Mineral Resources[J].Resources&Industries,13(2):31-36(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Wen-fang,KONG Rui,WANG Ren-cai.2008.Research on Evaluation Target System of Important Mneral Resources in China[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(7):26-29(in Chinese with English abstract).
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,Technology and Logistics.2013.Strategic and Critical Materials2013 Report on Stockpile Requirements[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://mineralsmakelife.org.
SILBERGLITT R,BARTIS T J,CHOW G B,AN L D,BRADY K.2013.Critical Materials Present Danger to U.S.Manufacturing[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].www.rand.org.
SUN Yong-bo,WANG Yun-jia.2005.The Study of Evaluation Index System and Way in Mineral Resources Security[J].China Mining Magazine,14(4):36-37,81(in Chinese with English abstract).
U.S.Department of Energy.2010.Critical Mineral Stratery[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://energy.gov.
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,YU Wen-jia.2010.The Mineral Resources Demand Theory and the Prediction Model[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(2):137-147(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG An-jian.2010.Global Resource Structure and Its Perspective[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):621-627(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Deng-hong,WANG Rui-jiang,LI Jian-kang,ZHAO Zhi,YU Yang,DAI Jing-jing,CHEN Zheng-hui,LI De-xian,QU Wen-jun,DENG Mao-chun,FU Xiao-fang,SUN Yan,ZHENG Guo-dong.2013.The progress in the strategic research and survey of rare earth,rare metal and rare-scattered elements mineral resources[J].Geology in China,40(2):363 -370(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Gao-shang.2010.Mineral Commodity Prices Trend in the Late Crisis Times[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):629 -634(in Chinese with English abstract).
XU Ming-chen,WANG An-jian,CHEN Qi-shen,DU Xue-ming.2010.Trend Analysis of China’s Energy Consumption Intensity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):720-726(in Chinese with English abstract).
YAN Xing-hu.2013.Analysis of problems during molybdenum resources development in China and suggestions[J].China Mining Magazine,22(10):16-18(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Liang-hui,MA zhuo-hui,ZHOU Hai-dong.2013.Present Situation and Development Suggestion of Exploiting and Utilizing China's Tungsten Resource[J].China Tungsten Industry,28(4):6-9(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Liang-hui,XUE Ya-zhou,JIA Wen-long.2012.Analysis of the strategic reserves mineral resources selection[J].China Mining Magazine,21(6):5-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Wen-jia,WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang.2010.A Prediction on the Time of Realizing Zero Growth of Energy Consumption in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):635 -644(in Chinese with English abstract).
YUAN Bo,FAN Ji-tao,YU Liang-hui.2011.Situation Analysis and Suggestions for China’s Antimony Resources[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(3):47-49,56(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZHANG Xiao-jia,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,PENG Ying.2010.China’s Regional Differences in Mineral Resources Demands and Trend Analysis[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31 (5):679-685(in Chinese with English abstract).
陈其慎,王高尚.2007.我国非能源战略性矿产的界定及其重要性评价[J].中国国土资源经济,(1):19-21,44-45.
费红彩,张玉华.2013.美国未来能源格局趋势与中国页岩气勘查现状[J].地球学报,34(3):375-380.
韩美玲,张德会.2010.世界黄金产业分析[J].资源与产业,12(4):100-106.
胡小平.2005.矿产资源供应安全评价[J].中国国土资源经济,(7):6-9.
贾木欣,王明燕,李艳峰,孙传尧.2013.我国钨资源矿石性质特点及资源利用存在的问题[J].矿冶,22(1):90-94.
孔锐,裴文林,曾祯.2011.我国重要矿产资源评价模型设计与研究[J].资源与产业,13(2):31-36.
李文芳,孔锐,王仁财.2008.我国重要矿产资源评价指标体系研究[J].中国国土资源经济,(7):26-29.
孙永波,汪云甲.2005.矿产资源安全评价指标体系与方法研究[J].中国矿业,14(4):36-37,81.
王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,于汶加.2010.矿产资源需求理论与模型预测[J].地球学报,31(2):137-147.
王安建.2010.世界资源格局与展望[J].地球学报,31(5):621-627.
王登红,王瑞江,李建康,赵芝,于扬,代晶晶,陈郑辉,李德先,屈文俊,邓茂春,付小方,孙艳,郑国栋.2013.中国三稀矿产资源战略调查研究进展综述路[J].中国地质,40(2):363-370.
王高尚.2010.后危机时代矿产品价格趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):629-634.
徐铭辰,王安建,陈其慎,杜雪明.2010.中国能源消费强度趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):720-726.
闫兴虎.2013.中国钼矿资源开发问题分析及对策[J].中国矿业,22(10):16-18.
于汶加,王安建,王高尚.2010.中国能源消费“零增长”何时到来[J].地球学报,31(5):635-644.
余良晖,马茁卉,周海东.2013.我国钨矿资源开发利用现状与发展建议[J].中国钨业,28(4):6-9.
余良晖,薛亚洲,贾文龙.2012.矿产地战略储备的矿种选择分析[J].中国矿业,21(6):5-8.
袁博,范继涛,余良晖.2011.我国锑资源形势分析及对策建议[J].中国国土资源经济,(3):47-49,56.
张晓佳,王高尚,陈其慎,彭颖.2010.我国区域性矿产资源需求差异与趋势分析[J].地球学报,31(5):679-685.
British Geological Survey.2012.Risk list 2012.An update to the supply risk index for elements or elements groups that are of economic value[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://www.bgs.ac.uk.
CHEN Qi-shen,WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,DU Xue-ming,XING Wan-li.2013.Discussion on mineral resources consumption altas of American[J].China Mining Magazine,22(5):8-14(in Chinese with English abstract).
CHEN Qi-shen,WANG Gao-shang.2007.Definition for Strategic Non-energy Minerals in China and Their Quantified Weighty Evaluation[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(1):19 -21,44-45(in Chinese with English abstract).
European Commission.2010.Critical raw materials for the EU-Report of the Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://ec.europa.eu.
FEI Hong-cai,ZHANG Yu-hua.2013.The Trend of US Future Energy Pattern and the Present Situation of China’s Shale Gas Exploration[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,34(3):375-380(in Chinese with English abstract).
HAN Mei-ling,ZHANG De-hui.2010.Analysis on world gold industry[J].Resources&Industries,12(4):100-106(in Chinese with English abstract).
HU Xiao-ping.2005.Evaluation on Mineral Resource Supply Security[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(7):6-9(in Chinese with English abstract).
JIA Mu-xin,WANG Ming-yan,LI Yan-feng,SUN Chuan-yao.2013.Characteristics of Chinese Tungsten ore and the Problems in the Tunsten resources utilization[J].Mining&Metallurgy,22(1):90-94(in Chinese with English abstract).
KONG Rui,PEI Wen-lin,ZENG Zhen.2011.Design and Study of Evaluation Model of China’s Vital Mineral Resources[J].Resources&Industries,13(2):31-36(in Chinese with English abstract).
LI Wen-fang,KONG Rui,WANG Ren-cai.2008.Research on Evaluation Target System of Important Mneral Resources in China[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(7):26-29(in Chinese with English abstract).
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,Technology and Logistics.2013.Strategic and Critical Materials2013 Report on Stockpile Requirements[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://mineralsmakelife.org.
SILBERGLITT R,BARTIS T J,CHOW G B,AN L D,BRADY K.2013.Critical Materials Present Danger to U.S.Manufacturing[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].www.rand.org.
SUN Yong-bo,WANG Yun-jia.2005.The Study of Evaluation Index System and Way in Mineral Resources Security[J].China Mining Magazine,14(4):36-37,81(in Chinese with English abstract).
U.S.Department of Energy.2010.Critical Mineral Stratery[OL/EB].[2013-10-12].http://energy.gov.
WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,YU Wen-jia.2010.The Mineral Resources Demand Theory and the Prediction Model[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(2):137-147(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG An-jian.2010.Global Resource Structure and Its Perspective[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):621-627(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Deng-hong,WANG Rui-jiang,LI Jian-kang,ZHAO Zhi,YU Yang,DAI Jing-jing,CHEN Zheng-hui,LI De-xian,QU Wen-jun,DENG Mao-chun,FU Xiao-fang,SUN Yan,ZHENG Guo-dong.2013.The progress in the strategic research and survey of rare earth,rare metal and rare-scattered elements mineral resources[J].Geology in China,40(2):363 -370(in Chinese with English abstract).
WANG Gao-shang.2010.Mineral Commodity Prices Trend in the Late Crisis Times[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):629 -634(in Chinese with English abstract).
XU Ming-chen,WANG An-jian,CHEN Qi-shen,DU Xue-ming.2010.Trend Analysis of China’s Energy Consumption Intensity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):720-726(in Chinese with English abstract).
YAN Xing-hu.2013.Analysis of problems during molybdenum resources development in China and suggestions[J].China Mining Magazine,22(10):16-18(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Liang-hui,MA zhuo-hui,ZHOU Hai-dong.2013.Present Situation and Development Suggestion of Exploiting and Utilizing China's Tungsten Resource[J].China Tungsten Industry,28(4):6-9(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Liang-hui,XUE Ya-zhou,JIA Wen-long.2012.Analysis of the strategic reserves mineral resources selection[J].China Mining Magazine,21(6):5-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
YU Wen-jia,WANG An-jian,WANG Gao-shang.2010.A Prediction on the Time of Realizing Zero Growth of Energy Consumption in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31(5):635 -644(in Chinese with English abstract).
YUAN Bo,FAN Ji-tao,YU Liang-hui.2011.Situation Analysis and Suggestions for China’s Antimony Resources[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,(3):47-49,56(in Chinese with English abstract).
ZHANG Xiao-jia,WANG Gao-shang,CHEN Qi-shen,PENG Ying.2010.China’s Regional Differences in Mineral Resources Demands and Trend Analysis[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,31 (5):679-685(in Chinese with English abstract).