中国铬需求预测及资源供应安全态势分析
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摘要
铬是全球公认的战略物资。随着近年来中国铬资源需求的快速上升,铬资源进口量也大幅增加,铬资源供应安全面临多重威胁。本文首先分析了中国铬资源供需现状,然后通过总结发达国家经验,预测了中国铬资源未来的需求趋势;在此基础上,本文构建了包括国内供需因素、进口因素、国际市场因素在内的3个二级指标以及现有资源保障度、二次资源回收水平等9个三级指标的铬资源供应安全指标体系,并采用层次分析法评价了中国铬资源供应安全现状,计算了中国2000年、2005年、2010年、2013年、2020年和2030年的铬资源供应安全指数。结果表明:中国铬资源供应安全指数呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势,近年来铬资源供应不安全程度持续上升,目前已处于高位,未来随着2020年铬资源需求到达顶点、二次资源回收水平的上升以及进口来源渠道的拓展,中国铬资源安全形势将逐步好转。
Chromium is recognized worldwide as a strategic material because it is hard and wearing,and widely used in the national defense and economic construction sectors. With the rapid rise in stainless steel production in China in recent years,for which chromium is an essential element,Chinese chromium resource imports have increased rapidly and China's chromium resource supply security faces multiple threats. Here we analyze the present situation of supply and demand of chromium resources in China,and then summarize the stainless steel production experience of developed countries because chromium demand is closely related to stainless steel production. Our overall goal was to forecast the demand of chromium resources in China,and to do this we constructed a chromium resource supply security index system including domestic supply and demand factors,import factors,international market factors,three secondary indicators,and nine third-level indicators(e.g. existing resource guarantee degree,resource two times recovery). Using the analytic hierarchy process we evaluated the safety status of chromium supply in China and calculated the index of chromium resource supply security in 2000,2005,2010,2013,2020 and 2030. We found that the chromium resource supply security index decreases initially and then increases and the chromium resources supply safety rate continues to rise and may already be at high levels. In the future,chromium resource demand will reach its highest point at 2020,two resource recycling levels will rise,and China will expand imports. At the same time China's chromium resource security situation will gradually ease.
Chromium is recognized worldwide as a strategic material because it is hard and wearing,and widely used in the national defense and economic construction sectors. With the rapid rise in stainless steel production in China in recent years,for which chromium is an essential element,Chinese chromium resource imports have increased rapidly and China's chromium resource supply security faces multiple threats. Here we analyze the present situation of supply and demand of chromium resources in China,and then summarize the stainless steel production experience of developed countries because chromium demand is closely related to stainless steel production. Our overall goal was to forecast the demand of chromium resources in China,and to do this we constructed a chromium resource supply security index system including domestic supply and demand factors,import factors,international market factors,three secondary indicators,and nine third-level indicators(e.g. existing resource guarantee degree,resource two times recovery). Using the analytic hierarchy process we evaluated the safety status of chromium supply in China and calculated the index of chromium resource supply security in 2000,2005,2010,2013,2020 and 2030. We found that the chromium resource supply security index decreases initially and then increases and the chromium resources supply safety rate continues to rise and may already be at high levels. In the future,chromium resource demand will reach its highest point at 2020,two resource recycling levels will rise,and China will expand imports. At the same time China's chromium resource security situation will gradually ease.
引文
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[13]胡德文.铬铁矿市场集中度研究[R].成都:循环经济与矿产综合利用技术发展研讨会论文集,2009.
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[18]李成.中国不锈钢的发展[EB/OL].(2014-03-09)[2015-01-09].http://www.foxdoc.com/201404/467515.html.
[19]中国海关总署.海关统计年鉴2000-2013[M].北京:中国海关出版社,2014.
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[22]张艳飞,陈其慎,王高尚.中国钢铁产业合理产能分析[J]中国矿业,2014,23(6):54-58.
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[24]铬铁矿用途与技术经济指标[EB/OL].(2011-11-23)[2015-01-09].http://wenku.baidu.com/link?url=Pbp Lt Rk R1u F36y T1Nnb V3Iu Uo Min FF9Cz VPKR_ld9RYrp Lzk A1oc1Xoq YG Tt Fo PXw Sq Em KTvq WHn LXu Z5Eh Nf-tp N05mw AJc V1b0o Gd6w CW.
[25]张大超,汪云甲.矿产资源安全评价指标体系研究[J].地质技术经济管理,2003,25(5):20-24.
[26]陈淑芳.日本不锈钢工业发展现状[J].中国金属通报,2004,(42):13-13.
[27]USGS.Mineral Commodity Summaries-Chromium[EB/OL].(2014-01)[2015-01-09].http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/chromium/.
[28]再生资源回收体系建设可行性分析报告[EB/OL].[2015-01-09].http://www.doc88.com/p-405278167234.html.
[29]崔荣国,刘树臣.矿产品对外依存度研究及初步测算[J].国土资源情报,2008,(8):39-43.
[30]Wind资讯.铬粉价格[EB/OL].(2015-01-09)[2015-01-09].http://www.wind.com.cn/.
[31]胡德文.铬铁矿市场集中度研究[A].中国地质矿产经济学会等,地质找矿改革发展大讨论论文集[C].北京:中国国土资源经济研究院,2009.
[32]2015年印度不锈钢产量将达400万吨[EB/OL].(2013-09-09)[2015-01-09].http://www.shmet.com/Report/Detail.aspx?id=261148.
1)国土资源部.中国矿产资源年报2013.2013年。
1)陈其慎等.全球铁铜铝资源供需格局研究.中国地质矿产研究中心,2012年。
1)陈其慎,于汶加,张艳飞等.中国战略性矿产研究报告.中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,2014年。
1)陈其慎,于汶加,张艳飞等.中国战略性矿产研究报告.中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,2014年。
1)yaahp(Yet Another AHP)是一个层次分析法(AHP)软件,提供方便的层次模型构造、判断矩阵数据录入、排序权重计算以及计算数据导出等功能。
[2]郑言.我国天然气安全评价与预警系统研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学(武汉),2013.
[3]张佳东.中国镍资源安全评价[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2013.
[4]吴新春.中国铁矿石资源供应安全研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2011.
[5]田时中.我国煤炭供需安全评价及预测预警研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学(武汉),2013.
[6]牛建英.战略矿产资源供应安全研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2007.
[7]胡小平.矿产资源供应安全评价[J].中国国土资源经济,2005,18(7):6-8.
[8]李艳军,张剑廷.我国铬铁矿资源现状及可持续供应建议[J].金属矿山,2011,(10):27-30.
[9]李成.中国不锈钢产业当前面临的形势与问题[J].不锈:市场与信息,2009,(9):15-18.
[10]张福生,高鹏,陈甲斌.我国铬铁矿未来供需态势与调控政策分析[J].地质找矿论丛,2005,20(3):215-217.
[11]余良晖,王海军,于银杰.我国铬铁矿战略储备构思[J].国土资源,2006,(8):24-25.
[12]刘随臣.我国铬铁矿未来供需态势与国外供矿前景分析[J].中国国土资源经济,2004,17(8):4-6.
[13]胡德文.铬铁矿市场集中度研究[R].成都:循环经济与矿产综合利用技术发展研讨会论文集,2009.
[14]东莞益新实业有限公司.不锈钢基础教程[EB/OL].[2015-01-09].http://www.docin.com/p-395329827.html.
[15]ISSF.Stainless and Heat Resisting Steel Melt Shop Production2001-2012[EB/OL].(2014-01)[2015-01-09].http://www.worldstainless.org/crude_steel_production/crude_2001_to_2010.
[16]ISSF.Stainless and Heat Resisting Steel Melt Shop Production2013[EB/OL].(2014-01)[2015-01-09].http://www.worldstain less.org/crude_steel_production/crude_2001_to_2010.
[17]Trench J G.Role of the Chinese Steel Industry in the Economic Development of China and Australia’s Contribution to the Industry as a Supplier of Raw Materials[D].Perth:Murdoch University,2004.
[18]李成.中国不锈钢的发展[EB/OL].(2014-03-09)[2015-01-09].http://www.foxdoc.com/201404/467515.html.
[19]中国海关总署.海关统计年鉴2000-2013[M].北京:中国海关出版社,2014.
[20]USGS.Chromium Statistics[EB/OL].(2014-01)[2015-01-09].http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/chromium/.
[21]GGDC.The Conference Board Total Economy Da Tablease[EB/OL].(2014-01)[2015-01-09].http://www.conference-board.org/data/economyda Tablease/.
[22]张艳飞,陈其慎,王高尚.中国钢铁产业合理产能分析[J]中国矿业,2014,23(6):54-58.
[23]郝培钢.中国不锈钢产业发展进入历史新阶段[EB/OL].[2015-01-09].http://wenku.baidu.com/link?url=ZPd GLK1YUt LPlwc A5u2q Xf1NHxer87m ZIDis99YTIK03_P8_o NMy7y ASYJ0o CVEJ_u5x6Gyj Vys2z Ks9_wh UAEwgb8Cv Hbq Na70EBDpsmxy.
[24]铬铁矿用途与技术经济指标[EB/OL].(2011-11-23)[2015-01-09].http://wenku.baidu.com/link?url=Pbp Lt Rk R1u F36y T1Nnb V3Iu Uo Min FF9Cz VPKR_ld9RYrp Lzk A1oc1Xoq YG Tt Fo PXw Sq Em KTvq WHn LXu Z5Eh Nf-tp N05mw AJc V1b0o Gd6w CW.
[25]张大超,汪云甲.矿产资源安全评价指标体系研究[J].地质技术经济管理,2003,25(5):20-24.
[26]陈淑芳.日本不锈钢工业发展现状[J].中国金属通报,2004,(42):13-13.
[27]USGS.Mineral Commodity Summaries-Chromium[EB/OL].(2014-01)[2015-01-09].http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/chromium/.
[28]再生资源回收体系建设可行性分析报告[EB/OL].[2015-01-09].http://www.doc88.com/p-405278167234.html.
[29]崔荣国,刘树臣.矿产品对外依存度研究及初步测算[J].国土资源情报,2008,(8):39-43.
[30]Wind资讯.铬粉价格[EB/OL].(2015-01-09)[2015-01-09].http://www.wind.com.cn/.
[31]胡德文.铬铁矿市场集中度研究[A].中国地质矿产经济学会等,地质找矿改革发展大讨论论文集[C].北京:中国国土资源经济研究院,2009.
[32]2015年印度不锈钢产量将达400万吨[EB/OL].(2013-09-09)[2015-01-09].http://www.shmet.com/Report/Detail.aspx?id=261148.
1)国土资源部.中国矿产资源年报2013.2013年。
1)陈其慎等.全球铁铜铝资源供需格局研究.中国地质矿产研究中心,2012年。
1)陈其慎,于汶加,张艳飞等.中国战略性矿产研究报告.中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,2014年。
1)陈其慎,于汶加,张艳飞等.中国战略性矿产研究报告.中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,2014年。
1)yaahp(Yet Another AHP)是一个层次分析法(AHP)软件,提供方便的层次模型构造、判断矩阵数据录入、排序权重计算以及计算数据导出等功能。