低保对象为何退保难?动态分析策略下的退保模式及其变迁趋势研究
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摘要
本文基于民政部2014年"中国城乡困难家庭社会政策支持系统建设"调查的数据,运用事件史分析方法,对城市低保接受时长和退保影响因素进行探究。研究发现,低保对象的救助接受时间呈现明显的长期化特点,但随着低保接受时间的延长,低保对象退保风险会逐渐上升。这与"时间依赖论"关于长期化救助接受会逐渐弱化救助对象工作伦理,进而造成救助退出可能性逐步下降的理论预设恰好相反,说明中国城市低保对象退保难与工作积极性下降无关。进一步的研究发现,弱势化的低保人口构成及就业救助服务缺失是长期低保接受的重要原因。此外,中国的非正规就业结构也对退保构成显著的不利影响,不过,该影响随着时代的发展在不断减弱。
Based on data from "Evaluation on Chinese Urban and Rural Lowincome Household Support System(2014)",this paper uses the event history analysis method to explore the duration of welfare(dibao)and factors affecting dibao exit in the urban area.The study finds that welfare recipients commonly stay in welfare for long-term,however,it is not because of the"negative time dependence"or declining work motivation as claimed by the"time dependency hypothesis".On the contrary,the longer recipients remain in welfare,the likelihood ofexit increases,indicating that low exit rate is not caused by low work motivation.Further analysis shows that the low-income population suffers from labor capital deficiency and lacks employment assistance service,the two main determining factors leading to long-term welfare dependency.Furthermore,off-book informal employment constitutes an important barrier to dibao exit,even thoughits impact has been declining over the time.Several policy implications can be drawn from this study:Firstly,in tackling the issue of labor capital deficiency,a comprehensive growth-oriented welfare system should be developed;Secondly,the central government should increase its funding to ensure that local agencies have sufficient funds for employment assistance projects;Finally,the government should strengthen multi-sector information sharing mechanism and enhance the professionalization of means-tested eligibility to deal with off-book informal employment,and more importantly,change the Chinese employment structure by creating moreformal employment.
Based on data from "Evaluation on Chinese Urban and Rural Lowincome Household Support System(2014)",this paper uses the event history analysis method to explore the duration of welfare(dibao)and factors affecting dibao exit in the urban area.The study finds that welfare recipients commonly stay in welfare for long-term,however,it is not because of the"negative time dependence"or declining work motivation as claimed by the"time dependency hypothesis".On the contrary,the longer recipients remain in welfare,the likelihood ofexit increases,indicating that low exit rate is not caused by low work motivation.Further analysis shows that the low-income population suffers from labor capital deficiency and lacks employment assistance service,the two main determining factors leading to long-term welfare dependency.Furthermore,off-book informal employment constitutes an important barrier to dibao exit,even thoughits impact has been declining over the time.Several policy implications can be drawn from this study:Firstly,in tackling the issue of labor capital deficiency,a comprehensive growth-oriented welfare system should be developed;Secondly,the central government should increase its funding to ensure that local agencies have sufficient funds for employment assistance projects;Finally,the government should strengthen multi-sector information sharing mechanism and enhance the professionalization of means-tested eligibility to deal with off-book informal employment,and more importantly,change the Chinese employment structure by creating moreformal employment.
引文
蔡昉.2007.中国劳动力市场发育与就业变化[J].经济研究(7):4-14.
慈勤英、王卓祺.2006.失业者的再就业选择---最低生活保障制度的微观分析[J].社会学研究(3):135-155.
陈强.2010.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社.
程延园.2007.劳动合同法:构建与发展和谐稳定的劳动关系[J].中国人民大学学报(5):104-110.
杜本峰.2008.事件史分析及其应用[M].北京:经济科学出版社.
关信平.2016.我国低保标准的意义及当前低保标准存在的问题分析[J].江苏社会科学(3):64-71.
韩克庆、郭瑜.2012.“福利依赖”是否存在?---中国城市低保制度的一个实证研究[J].社会学研究(2):149-167.
洪大用.2005.试论中国城市低保制度实践的延伸效果及其演进方向[J].社会25(3):50-69.
胡鞍钢、赵黎.2006.我国转型城镇非正规就业与非正规经济(1990-2004)[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)(3):111-119.
黄晨熹.2007.城市低保对象求职行为的影响因素及相关制度安排研究[J].社会学研究(1):137-160.
黄晨熹.2009.城市低保对象动态管理研究:基于“救助生涯”的视角[J].人口与发展(6):10-22.
黄宗智.2011.中国被忽视的非正规经济:现实与理论[J].开放时代(1):51-73.
李春根.2014.中国城市最低生活保障标准:变化轨迹和现实考量---基于2003-2013年31个省域城市低保数据的聚类分析[J].中国行政管理(12):90-94.
林闽钢.2011.城市贫困救助的目标定位问题---以中国城市居民最低生活保障制度为例[J].东岳论丛(5):13-19.
马爽.2017.城市低保对象求职行为及其影响因素研究[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)(5):183-194.
民政部政策研究中心.2013.中国城乡困难家庭研究报告[M].北京:中国社会出版社.
唐钧.2015.慎言“福利依赖”[J].社会科学文摘(12):26-28.
王永兴、景维民.2010.中国非正规经济的实证研究[J].统计研究(11):17-23.
张浩淼.2014.救助、就业与福利依赖---兼论关于中国低保制度“养懒汉”的担忧[J].兰州学刊(5):163-169.
张时飞.2009.“加快健全低保制度亟待深化的问题及对策”[G]//“首届中国社会救助研讨会”论文集.
郑功成.2018.中国社会保障改革与经济发展:回顾与展望[J].中国人民大学学报(1):37-49.
Allison,David P.1995.Survival Analysis Using the SAS System:A Practical Guide.NC:SAS Institute.
Andrén,Thomas and Bj9rn Gustafsson.2004.“Patterns of Social Assistance Receipt in Sweden.”International Journal of Social Welfare 13(1):55-68.
Ayala,Luis and Rodríguez Magdalena.2007.“What Determines Exit from Social Assistance in Spain?”International Journal of Social Welfare 16(2):168-182.
Bane,Mary J.and David T.Ellwood.1986.“Slipping Into and Out of Poverty:The Dynamic of Spells.”The Journal of Human Resource 21(1):1-23.
Bane,Mary J.and David T.Ellwood.1994.Welfare Realities:From Rhetoric to Reform.Cambridge:Harvard University Press.
Berger,Suzanne and Michael J.Piore.1980.Dualism and Discontinuity in Industrial Societies.New York:Cambridge University Press.
Bergmark,Ake and Olof Backman.2004.“Stuck with Welfare?Long-Term Social Assistance Recipiency in Sweden.”European Sociological Review20(5):425-443.
Carpentier,Sarah,Neels Karel,and Bosch K.V.Den.2017.“Exit from and Re-Entry into Social Assistance Benefit in Belgium among People with Migration Background and the Native-Born.”International Journal of Social Welfare 26(4):366-383.
Cooke,Martin.2009.“A Welfare Trap?The Duration and Dynamics of Social Assistance Use among Lone Mothers in Canada.”Canadian Review of Sociology 46(3):179-206.
Dahl,Espen and Thomas Lorentzen.2003.“Explaining Exit to Work among Social Assistance Recipients in Norway:Heterogeneity or Dependency?”European Sociological Review19(5):519-536.
Duncan,Greg J.and Saul D.Hoffman.1988.“The Use and Effects of Welfare:A Survey of Recent Evidence.”Social Services Review62(2):238-257.
Goul-Andersen,Jorgen,Clasen Jochen,Van W.Oorschot,and Halvorsen Knut.2002.Europe’s New State of Welfare:Unemployment,Employment Policies and Citizenship.Bristol:Policy Press.
Gustafsson,Bj9rn,Muller Rolf,Negri Nicola,and Voges Wolfgang.2002.“Paths through(and out of)Social Assistance.”In Social Assistance Dynamics in Europe:National and Local Poverty Regimes,edited by C.Saraceno.Bristol:The Policy Press.
Handler,Joel F.2004.Social Citizenship and Workfare in the United States and Western Europe:The Paradox of Inclusion.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Hansen,Hans-Tore.2009.“The Dynamics of Social Assistance Recipiency:Empirical Evidence from Norway.”European Sociological Review24(3):1-17.
Hofferth,Sandra,Stanhope Stephen,and Mullan K.Harris.2002.“Exiting Welfare in the1990s:Did Ppublic PolicyInfluence Recipients’Behavior?”Population Research and Policy Review21(5):433-472.
Hutton,Sandra and Gerry Redmond.2000.Poverty in Transition Economies.London:Routledge.
Karger,Howard J.2003.“Ending Public Assistance:The Transformation of US Public Assistance Policy into Labour Policy.”Journal of Social Policy 32(3):383-401.
Leisering,Lutz and Stephan Leibfried.1999.Time and Poverty in Western Welfare States:United Germany in Perspective.Cambridge,New York:Cambridge University Press.
Leung,Joe B.and Meng Xiao.2015.“The Institutionalisation of Social Assistance.”In China’s Social Policy:Transformation and Challenges,edited by Chan,C.K.New York:Routledge.
Lindsay,Colin,Mcquaid W.Ronald,and Dutton Matthew.2007.“New Approaches to Employability in the UK:Combining‘Human Capital Development’and‘Work First’Strategies?”Journal of Social Policy 36(4):539-560.
Ldemel,Ivar and Heather Trickey.2001.An Offer You Can’t Refuse:Workfare in International Perspective.Bristol:Policy Press.
Loprest,Pamela.2001.“How are Families Who Left Welfare Doing over Time?AComparison of Two Cohorts of Welfare Leavers.”Economic Policy Review7(2):9-19.
Micklewright,John and Sheila Marnie.2005.“Targeting Social Assistance in a Transition Economy:The Mahallas in Uzbekistan.”Social Policy and Administration39(4):431-447.
Mood,Carina.2011.“Lagging Behind in Good Times:Immigrants and the Increased Dependence on Social Assistance in Sweden.”International Journal of Social Welfare 20(1):55-65.
Murray,Charles.1984.Losing Ground.New York:Basic Books.
Nam,Yunju.2005.“The Roles of Employment Barriers in Welfare Exits and Reentries After Welfare Reform:Event History Analyses.”Social Service Review 79(2):268-293.
OECD.2004.OECD Employment Outlook.Paris:OECD.
Peck,Jamie.2000.“Work First:Workfare and the Regulation of Contingent Labor Markets.”Cambridge Journal of Economics 24(1):119-138.
Saraceno,Chiara.2002.Social Assistance Dynamics in Europe:National and Local Poverty Regimes.Bristol,UK:Policy Press.Y.C.
Schmidtz,David and Robert E.Goodin.1998.Social Welfare and Individual Responsibility.Cambridge,New York:Cambridge University Press.
Silver,Susan,Shields John,and Wilson Sue.2005.“Restructuring of Full-Time Workers:ACase of Transitional Dislocation or Social Exclusion in Canada?Lessons from the1990s.”Social Policy&Administration39(7):786-801.
Taylor,Jane M.1999.“Race and Regional Unemployment as Predictors of Exit from AFDC.”Journal of Social Service Research25(1-2):1-18.
Torfing,Jacob.1999.“Workfare with Welfare:Recent Reforms of the Danish Welfare State.”Journal of European Social Policy 9(1):5-28.
Van-Oorschot,Wim.2004.“Balancing Work and Welfare:Activation and Flexicurity Policies in The Netherlands,1980-2000.”International Journal of Social Welfare13(1):15-27.
Wong,Yu-Cheung,Hong L.Chen,and Qun Zeng.2014.“Social assistance in Shanghai:Dynamics Between Social Protection and Informal Employment.”International Journal of Social Welfare 23(3):333-341.
Walker,Robert.1998.“Escaping from Social Assistance in Great Britain.”In The Dynamics of Modern Society,edited by L.Leisering and R.Walker.Bristol:Policy Press.
Xu,Yuebin and Ludovico Carraro.2016.“Minimum Income Programme and Welfare Dependency in China.”International Journal of Social Welfare 26(2):141-150.
1.低保动态管理率是指“累计全年进出低保总人次除以全年月平均低保对象数”,参见民政部《全国基层低保规范化建设暂行评估标准(2008)》。
2.伯格和皮奥雷(Berger and Piore,1980)曾提出“双层劳动力市场理论”,认为劳动力市场具有两个部门或层级。在主流劳动力市场(primary labor market),工人可以享受相对较高的收入、福利水平、工作条件以及就业保障,并拥有更多的升职空间。在次级劳动力市场(secondary labor market),工人的工资、福利水平和工作条件都较差,会面临较高的失业风险,雇员的替换率也很高。
3.本研究中的“有劳动能力被救助者”,指的是救助对象中处于劳动年龄范围内(男,18-60岁;女,18-55岁)的非丧失劳动能力人员,在校学生除外。
4.为验证本文关于“子女成年/毕业的显性变化有助于低保对象退保”的研究假设,研究将子女年龄划分为0-10岁、11-15岁、16-18岁、19-22岁及22岁以上五类。18岁代表成年,22岁意味着大学毕业。为观察上述时点是否会出现低保对象退保高峰,研究首先以18岁和22岁为界,划分了“16-18岁”和“19-22岁”年龄组。前者最接近成年年龄,后者则最接近大学毕业年龄,其在各年龄组中的退保风险理论上应最高。16岁以下年龄组相比于前述两个年龄组,退保风险会较低。研究之所以将16岁以下年龄组又细分为“0-10岁”和“11-15岁”年龄组,是为了进一步检验我们关于子女年龄影响的假设。与“11-15岁”年龄组相比,“0-10岁”年龄组距离到达成年或毕业的时间距离更长,退保风险故应更低。
5.本研究所讨论分析的就业服务,无论是“职业推荐”还是“技能培训”,都是指以政府为主体、以低保接受者为对象、组织化、无偿化的就业救助服务,不包括市场化的就业服务(如市场中面向普通劳动者的职业介绍所、培训机构所提供的收费性服务),也不包含通过个体渠道、私人关系所获得的就业服务。
6.虽然受数据条件限制,研究只能将地区作为非时变变量,而不是时变变量进行分析,但考虑到样本在观测期内发生迁移的概率很低,此种变量设置方式所导致的评估偏差可忽略不计。具体来说,由于我国低保实行属地管理原则,即低保对象必须在户籍所在地申请并享受低保,低保家庭如果在救助接受期间发生迁移,其低保经历必然呈现出多次进保特点。而就本研究中的3 145个样本来看,单次被救助样本达2977个,多次被救助样本则仅有168个,且后者多次进保的因素很可能与迁移无关。也即是说,观测期内绝大多数样本的所在地并未发生变化,地区被设置为非时变变量所导致的评估偏误故非常微弱。
7.关于“救助时长类型”的划分方式,莱泽林与莱布弗里德(Leisering and Leibfried,1999)认为,可以将不足1年的被救助时间定义为“短期性救助”;1—3年的被救助时间定义为“中期性救助”;4—5年的被救助时间为“长期性救助”;接受救助超过5年以上为“超长期救助”。
慈勤英、王卓祺.2006.失业者的再就业选择---最低生活保障制度的微观分析[J].社会学研究(3):135-155.
陈强.2010.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社.
程延园.2007.劳动合同法:构建与发展和谐稳定的劳动关系[J].中国人民大学学报(5):104-110.
杜本峰.2008.事件史分析及其应用[M].北京:经济科学出版社.
关信平.2016.我国低保标准的意义及当前低保标准存在的问题分析[J].江苏社会科学(3):64-71.
韩克庆、郭瑜.2012.“福利依赖”是否存在?---中国城市低保制度的一个实证研究[J].社会学研究(2):149-167.
洪大用.2005.试论中国城市低保制度实践的延伸效果及其演进方向[J].社会25(3):50-69.
胡鞍钢、赵黎.2006.我国转型城镇非正规就业与非正规经济(1990-2004)[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)(3):111-119.
黄晨熹.2007.城市低保对象求职行为的影响因素及相关制度安排研究[J].社会学研究(1):137-160.
黄晨熹.2009.城市低保对象动态管理研究:基于“救助生涯”的视角[J].人口与发展(6):10-22.
黄宗智.2011.中国被忽视的非正规经济:现实与理论[J].开放时代(1):51-73.
李春根.2014.中国城市最低生活保障标准:变化轨迹和现实考量---基于2003-2013年31个省域城市低保数据的聚类分析[J].中国行政管理(12):90-94.
林闽钢.2011.城市贫困救助的目标定位问题---以中国城市居民最低生活保障制度为例[J].东岳论丛(5):13-19.
马爽.2017.城市低保对象求职行为及其影响因素研究[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)(5):183-194.
民政部政策研究中心.2013.中国城乡困难家庭研究报告[M].北京:中国社会出版社.
唐钧.2015.慎言“福利依赖”[J].社会科学文摘(12):26-28.
王永兴、景维民.2010.中国非正规经济的实证研究[J].统计研究(11):17-23.
张浩淼.2014.救助、就业与福利依赖---兼论关于中国低保制度“养懒汉”的担忧[J].兰州学刊(5):163-169.
张时飞.2009.“加快健全低保制度亟待深化的问题及对策”[G]//“首届中国社会救助研讨会”论文集.
郑功成.2018.中国社会保障改革与经济发展:回顾与展望[J].中国人民大学学报(1):37-49.
Allison,David P.1995.Survival Analysis Using the SAS System:A Practical Guide.NC:SAS Institute.
Andrén,Thomas and Bj9rn Gustafsson.2004.“Patterns of Social Assistance Receipt in Sweden.”International Journal of Social Welfare 13(1):55-68.
Ayala,Luis and Rodríguez Magdalena.2007.“What Determines Exit from Social Assistance in Spain?”International Journal of Social Welfare 16(2):168-182.
Bane,Mary J.and David T.Ellwood.1986.“Slipping Into and Out of Poverty:The Dynamic of Spells.”The Journal of Human Resource 21(1):1-23.
Bane,Mary J.and David T.Ellwood.1994.Welfare Realities:From Rhetoric to Reform.Cambridge:Harvard University Press.
Berger,Suzanne and Michael J.Piore.1980.Dualism and Discontinuity in Industrial Societies.New York:Cambridge University Press.
Bergmark,Ake and Olof Backman.2004.“Stuck with Welfare?Long-Term Social Assistance Recipiency in Sweden.”European Sociological Review20(5):425-443.
Carpentier,Sarah,Neels Karel,and Bosch K.V.Den.2017.“Exit from and Re-Entry into Social Assistance Benefit in Belgium among People with Migration Background and the Native-Born.”International Journal of Social Welfare 26(4):366-383.
Cooke,Martin.2009.“A Welfare Trap?The Duration and Dynamics of Social Assistance Use among Lone Mothers in Canada.”Canadian Review of Sociology 46(3):179-206.
Dahl,Espen and Thomas Lorentzen.2003.“Explaining Exit to Work among Social Assistance Recipients in Norway:Heterogeneity or Dependency?”European Sociological Review19(5):519-536.
Duncan,Greg J.and Saul D.Hoffman.1988.“The Use and Effects of Welfare:A Survey of Recent Evidence.”Social Services Review62(2):238-257.
Goul-Andersen,Jorgen,Clasen Jochen,Van W.Oorschot,and Halvorsen Knut.2002.Europe’s New State of Welfare:Unemployment,Employment Policies and Citizenship.Bristol:Policy Press.
Gustafsson,Bj9rn,Muller Rolf,Negri Nicola,and Voges Wolfgang.2002.“Paths through(and out of)Social Assistance.”In Social Assistance Dynamics in Europe:National and Local Poverty Regimes,edited by C.Saraceno.Bristol:The Policy Press.
Handler,Joel F.2004.Social Citizenship and Workfare in the United States and Western Europe:The Paradox of Inclusion.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Hansen,Hans-Tore.2009.“The Dynamics of Social Assistance Recipiency:Empirical Evidence from Norway.”European Sociological Review24(3):1-17.
Hofferth,Sandra,Stanhope Stephen,and Mullan K.Harris.2002.“Exiting Welfare in the1990s:Did Ppublic PolicyInfluence Recipients’Behavior?”Population Research and Policy Review21(5):433-472.
Hutton,Sandra and Gerry Redmond.2000.Poverty in Transition Economies.London:Routledge.
Karger,Howard J.2003.“Ending Public Assistance:The Transformation of US Public Assistance Policy into Labour Policy.”Journal of Social Policy 32(3):383-401.
Leisering,Lutz and Stephan Leibfried.1999.Time and Poverty in Western Welfare States:United Germany in Perspective.Cambridge,New York:Cambridge University Press.
Leung,Joe B.and Meng Xiao.2015.“The Institutionalisation of Social Assistance.”In China’s Social Policy:Transformation and Challenges,edited by Chan,C.K.New York:Routledge.
Lindsay,Colin,Mcquaid W.Ronald,and Dutton Matthew.2007.“New Approaches to Employability in the UK:Combining‘Human Capital Development’and‘Work First’Strategies?”Journal of Social Policy 36(4):539-560.
Ldemel,Ivar and Heather Trickey.2001.An Offer You Can’t Refuse:Workfare in International Perspective.Bristol:Policy Press.
Loprest,Pamela.2001.“How are Families Who Left Welfare Doing over Time?AComparison of Two Cohorts of Welfare Leavers.”Economic Policy Review7(2):9-19.
Micklewright,John and Sheila Marnie.2005.“Targeting Social Assistance in a Transition Economy:The Mahallas in Uzbekistan.”Social Policy and Administration39(4):431-447.
Mood,Carina.2011.“Lagging Behind in Good Times:Immigrants and the Increased Dependence on Social Assistance in Sweden.”International Journal of Social Welfare 20(1):55-65.
Murray,Charles.1984.Losing Ground.New York:Basic Books.
Nam,Yunju.2005.“The Roles of Employment Barriers in Welfare Exits and Reentries After Welfare Reform:Event History Analyses.”Social Service Review 79(2):268-293.
OECD.2004.OECD Employment Outlook.Paris:OECD.
Peck,Jamie.2000.“Work First:Workfare and the Regulation of Contingent Labor Markets.”Cambridge Journal of Economics 24(1):119-138.
Saraceno,Chiara.2002.Social Assistance Dynamics in Europe:National and Local Poverty Regimes.Bristol,UK:Policy Press.Y.C.
Schmidtz,David and Robert E.Goodin.1998.Social Welfare and Individual Responsibility.Cambridge,New York:Cambridge University Press.
Silver,Susan,Shields John,and Wilson Sue.2005.“Restructuring of Full-Time Workers:ACase of Transitional Dislocation or Social Exclusion in Canada?Lessons from the1990s.”Social Policy&Administration39(7):786-801.
Taylor,Jane M.1999.“Race and Regional Unemployment as Predictors of Exit from AFDC.”Journal of Social Service Research25(1-2):1-18.
Torfing,Jacob.1999.“Workfare with Welfare:Recent Reforms of the Danish Welfare State.”Journal of European Social Policy 9(1):5-28.
Van-Oorschot,Wim.2004.“Balancing Work and Welfare:Activation and Flexicurity Policies in The Netherlands,1980-2000.”International Journal of Social Welfare13(1):15-27.
Wong,Yu-Cheung,Hong L.Chen,and Qun Zeng.2014.“Social assistance in Shanghai:Dynamics Between Social Protection and Informal Employment.”International Journal of Social Welfare 23(3):333-341.
Walker,Robert.1998.“Escaping from Social Assistance in Great Britain.”In The Dynamics of Modern Society,edited by L.Leisering and R.Walker.Bristol:Policy Press.
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1.低保动态管理率是指“累计全年进出低保总人次除以全年月平均低保对象数”,参见民政部《全国基层低保规范化建设暂行评估标准(2008)》。
2.伯格和皮奥雷(Berger and Piore,1980)曾提出“双层劳动力市场理论”,认为劳动力市场具有两个部门或层级。在主流劳动力市场(primary labor market),工人可以享受相对较高的收入、福利水平、工作条件以及就业保障,并拥有更多的升职空间。在次级劳动力市场(secondary labor market),工人的工资、福利水平和工作条件都较差,会面临较高的失业风险,雇员的替换率也很高。
3.本研究中的“有劳动能力被救助者”,指的是救助对象中处于劳动年龄范围内(男,18-60岁;女,18-55岁)的非丧失劳动能力人员,在校学生除外。
4.为验证本文关于“子女成年/毕业的显性变化有助于低保对象退保”的研究假设,研究将子女年龄划分为0-10岁、11-15岁、16-18岁、19-22岁及22岁以上五类。18岁代表成年,22岁意味着大学毕业。为观察上述时点是否会出现低保对象退保高峰,研究首先以18岁和22岁为界,划分了“16-18岁”和“19-22岁”年龄组。前者最接近成年年龄,后者则最接近大学毕业年龄,其在各年龄组中的退保风险理论上应最高。16岁以下年龄组相比于前述两个年龄组,退保风险会较低。研究之所以将16岁以下年龄组又细分为“0-10岁”和“11-15岁”年龄组,是为了进一步检验我们关于子女年龄影响的假设。与“11-15岁”年龄组相比,“0-10岁”年龄组距离到达成年或毕业的时间距离更长,退保风险故应更低。
5.本研究所讨论分析的就业服务,无论是“职业推荐”还是“技能培训”,都是指以政府为主体、以低保接受者为对象、组织化、无偿化的就业救助服务,不包括市场化的就业服务(如市场中面向普通劳动者的职业介绍所、培训机构所提供的收费性服务),也不包含通过个体渠道、私人关系所获得的就业服务。
6.虽然受数据条件限制,研究只能将地区作为非时变变量,而不是时变变量进行分析,但考虑到样本在观测期内发生迁移的概率很低,此种变量设置方式所导致的评估偏差可忽略不计。具体来说,由于我国低保实行属地管理原则,即低保对象必须在户籍所在地申请并享受低保,低保家庭如果在救助接受期间发生迁移,其低保经历必然呈现出多次进保特点。而就本研究中的3 145个样本来看,单次被救助样本达2977个,多次被救助样本则仅有168个,且后者多次进保的因素很可能与迁移无关。也即是说,观测期内绝大多数样本的所在地并未发生变化,地区被设置为非时变变量所导致的评估偏误故非常微弱。
7.关于“救助时长类型”的划分方式,莱泽林与莱布弗里德(Leisering and Leibfried,1999)认为,可以将不足1年的被救助时间定义为“短期性救助”;1—3年的被救助时间定义为“中期性救助”;4—5年的被救助时间为“长期性救助”;接受救助超过5年以上为“超长期救助”。