中职篮比赛核心致胜因素研究
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摘要
为解析中职篮"新时代"比赛特点,提升CBA联赛竞赛水平。以2016—2017赛季、2017—2018赛季CBA联赛(827场比赛)为考察对象,综合考虑球队实力、比赛胜负的交互影响,首先运用独立样本T检验、判别模型分析对影响比赛的关键技术指标予以判定,并通过步进式多元线性回归模型从整体角度解读各指标与比赛胜负之间的数量关系。研究发现:(1)上游球队面对不同实力的对手时,2分球命中数、后场篮板、助攻均为影响比赛胜负的显著性关键指标;(2)下游球队面对不同实力对手时,后场篮板和助攻是影响其取胜的重要指标;(3)通过步进式多元线性回归模型创建的致胜公式对各比赛类型的解释度分别为72.1%、77.7%、56.9%、63.1%,说明应用多元线性回归方程探讨篮球比赛的致胜公式具有一定的客观性和科学性。
In order to analyze the characteristics of the "new era" competition of professional basketball, and improve the level of CBA competition. In 2016—2017 season, 2017—2018 season CBA league(827 games) as the study object, considering the interaction of team strength, competition, first using independent sample T test, discriminant model analysis to influence the key technical indicators to determine, and through the stepping multiple linear regression model from the perspective of overall unscramble the quantitative relation between the indexes and competition. The study found that:(1) when upstream teams face opponents with different strengths, the number of points hit, backcourt rebounds and assists are all significant key indicators affecting the outcome of the game;(2) when downstream teams face opponents with different strengths, backcourt rebounds and assists are important indicators affecting their victory;(3) the winning formula created by the stepwise multiple linear regression model has the explanatory power of 72.1%, 77.7%, 56.9% and 63.1%, respectively, indicating that it is objective and scientific to use the multiple linear regression equation to explore the winning formula of basketball matches.
In order to analyze the characteristics of the "new era" competition of professional basketball, and improve the level of CBA competition. In 2016—2017 season, 2017—2018 season CBA league(827 games) as the study object, considering the interaction of team strength, competition, first using independent sample T test, discriminant model analysis to influence the key technical indicators to determine, and through the stepping multiple linear regression model from the perspective of overall unscramble the quantitative relation between the indexes and competition. The study found that:(1) when upstream teams face opponents with different strengths, the number of points hit, backcourt rebounds and assists are all significant key indicators affecting the outcome of the game;(2) when downstream teams face opponents with different strengths, backcourt rebounds and assists are important indicators affecting their victory;(3) the winning formula created by the stepwise multiple linear regression model has the explanatory power of 72.1%, 77.7%, 56.9% and 63.1%, respectively, indicating that it is objective and scientific to use the multiple linear regression equation to explore the winning formula of basketball matches.
引文
[1] 姚健.CBA联赛进入“超竞争”格局后裁判问题突出的诊断与防控[J].中国体育科技,2018,54(1):49-56+114.
[2] HIGHAM D G,HOPKINS W G,Pyne D B,et al.Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens[J].Journal of Sports Science & Medicine,2014,13(2):358-364.
[3] MADARAME H.Game-Related Statistics Which Discriminate Between Winning and Losing Teams in Asian and European Men’s Basketball Championships[J].Asian Journal of Sports Medicine,2017(3):61-67.
[4] GOMEZ M A,LORENZO A,Barakat R,et al.Differences in game-related statistics of basketball performance by game location for men’s winning and losing teams[J].Percept Mot Skills,2008,106(1):43-50.
[5] 陈思同,刘阳.影响2014—2015赛季CBA比赛胜负的关键数据指标[J].中国体育教练员,2016,24(3):39-42.
[6] 曹卫华.CBA 2010-2011赛季各队攻防实力对比与竞争格局分析[J].体育学刊,2012,19(2):109-115.
[2] HIGHAM D G,HOPKINS W G,Pyne D B,et al.Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens[J].Journal of Sports Science & Medicine,2014,13(2):358-364.
[3] MADARAME H.Game-Related Statistics Which Discriminate Between Winning and Losing Teams in Asian and European Men’s Basketball Championships[J].Asian Journal of Sports Medicine,2017(3):61-67.
[4] GOMEZ M A,LORENZO A,Barakat R,et al.Differences in game-related statistics of basketball performance by game location for men’s winning and losing teams[J].Percept Mot Skills,2008,106(1):43-50.
[5] 陈思同,刘阳.影响2014—2015赛季CBA比赛胜负的关键数据指标[J].中国体育教练员,2016,24(3):39-42.
[6] 曹卫华.CBA 2010-2011赛季各队攻防实力对比与竞争格局分析[J].体育学刊,2012,19(2):109-115.