宁夏地方政府债务风险评估及防控实证分析
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摘要
当前,地方政府债务风险问题是保证我国经济社会可持续发展所必须要面对和解决的现实难题。本文基于宁夏政府债务现状及特点,通过静态指标评估和动态"压力-状态-响应"的PSR模型对宁夏政府债务风险程度进行了实证研究,结果显示:"当前宁夏政府债务风险总体可控,但风险值逐年上升、举债压力增加与偿债能力减弱等问题不容忽视",进而分析了债务风险的三类表现形式及产生的原因,并依此提出防控地方政府债务风险的相关思路和对策。
At present, the problem of local government debt risk is a practical problem that must be faced and solved to ensure the sustainable development of China's economy and society. Based on the current situation and characteristics of Ningxia's government debt, this paper conducts an empirical study on the risk degree of Ningxia's government debt through static index evaluation and PSR model of dynamic "pressure-state-response". The results show that "the risk of Ningxia's government debt is generally controllable at present, but the problems such as increasing risk value, increasing debt-borrowing pressure and weakening debt-paying ability can not be ignored", and then analyses the three forms of debt risk and their causes are discussed, and the relevant ideas and countermeasures to prevent and control the debt risk of local governments are put forward accordingly.
At present, the problem of local government debt risk is a practical problem that must be faced and solved to ensure the sustainable development of China's economy and society. Based on the current situation and characteristics of Ningxia's government debt, this paper conducts an empirical study on the risk degree of Ningxia's government debt through static index evaluation and PSR model of dynamic "pressure-state-response". The results show that "the risk of Ningxia's government debt is generally controllable at present, but the problems such as increasing risk value, increasing debt-borrowing pressure and weakening debt-paying ability can not be ignored", and then analyses the three forms of debt risk and their causes are discussed, and the relevant ideas and countermeasures to prevent and control the debt risk of local governments are put forward accordingly.
引文
[1]安立伟.中国地方政府性债务科学化管理研究.财政部财政科学研究所,2013.
[2]陈虹.地方财政债务风险:特征、成因与化解策略.审计与理财,2007, 09.
[3]贾康,刘微,张立承,石英华,孙洁.我国地方政府债务风险和对策.经济研究参考,2010,14.
[4]李茂媛.地方政府债务风险的本源探究及防范对策.江西社会科学,2012, 03.
[5]李扬.中国地方政府债务问题探讨.科学发展,2014, 10.
[6] Huiran Pan, Chun Wang. Co-movement of Government Debt and Economic Growth in the Euro-area:A Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model Analysis. International Economic Journal, 2013.
[2]陈虹.地方财政债务风险:特征、成因与化解策略.审计与理财,2007, 09.
[3]贾康,刘微,张立承,石英华,孙洁.我国地方政府债务风险和对策.经济研究参考,2010,14.
[4]李茂媛.地方政府债务风险的本源探究及防范对策.江西社会科学,2012, 03.
[5]李扬.中国地方政府债务问题探讨.科学发展,2014, 10.
[6] Huiran Pan, Chun Wang. Co-movement of Government Debt and Economic Growth in the Euro-area:A Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model Analysis. International Economic Journal, 2013.