京津冀地区乡村振兴地域模式研究——基于乡村非农就业与农民增收的空间效应
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摘要
探讨乡村非农就业与农民增收、农业农村发展之间的辩证关系,构建乡村振兴地域模式,对有序推进城镇化,实现农民生活富裕与乡村振兴具有重要意义。将京津冀地区划分为京津近郊区(I)、冀东北地区(II)、冀中平原区(III)、冀西太行山区(IV)、坝上地区(V)五类地域类型,采用2000—2016年京津冀县域面板数据,应用空间回归模型测算了京津冀地区乡村非农就业对农民增收的空间效应,提炼了京津冀地区乡村振兴地域模式。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区及五类地域类型区乡村就业非农化率与农民收入持续增长,2000—2016年,京津冀地区农村居民人均纯收入由2486元增至11920元,乡村就业非农化率由38.9%增至57.5%,五类地域类型区乡村就业非农化率排序依次为:I>III>II>IV>V,农村居民人均纯收入排序依次为:I>II>III>IV>V;(2)京津冀地区乡村就业非农化率每提高1个单位,农民收入增长9.215个单位,I、II、III、V区就业非农化对农民收入的弹性系数分别为29.986、-23.605、-10.388、9.951,IV区两者之间关系不显著;(3)依据不同地域类型乡村非农就业与农民增收的特征、机理与未来发展趋势,提炼了京津冀地区乡村振兴的四种地域模式,即就业平稳型+农工商主导、兼业型+现代农业主导、就业输出型+复合型特色农业主导、就业输出型+生态农旅主导。
Illustrating the dialectical relationship between rural off-farm employment, farmers' income growth and agricultural and rural development, and constructing regional modes of rural revitalization are of great significance for orderly promoting urbanization, and realizing the prosperity of farmers' living and rural revitalization. This article first divides the counties of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region into five types of region: Beijing and Tianjin suburban region(I), Northeast Hebei region(II), Central Hebei Plain region(III), Taihang Mountains region(IV) and Bashang region(V). Then it measures the spatial effect of rural off-farm employment on farmers' income growth by using panel data of the counties of Beijing-TianjinHebei Region and Spatial Regression Model. Finally, this paper refines the regional modes of rural revitalization in the study region. The results show that:(1) from 2000 to 2016, the rural per capita net income increased from 2486 yuan to 11920 yuan, while the rate of rural off-farm employment rose from 38.9% to 57.5%; the order of the rate of rural off-farm employment in five types of region was I>III>II>IV>V, and the order of the rural per capita net income was I>II>III>IV>V;(2) the rural off-farm employment effectively promotes the farmers' income growth; the process of rural off-farm employment leads to the change of farmers' income structure showing a trend of shift from one to another: the stronger the role of off-farm employment income in farmers' income growth, the weaker the role of agricultural income in farmers' income growth; every unit increase of the rate of rural off-farm employment leads to9.215 units increase of farmers' income; the elasticity coefficients of the rate of rural off-farm employment to farmers' income are 29.986,-23.605,-10.388, and 9.951 in I, II, III, and V region, respectively, and there is no significant relationship between them in IV region;(3)according to the characteristic, mechanism and future development trend of rural off-farm employment and farmers' income growth in different regional types, four regional modes of rural revitalization in this region are refined, namely, stable employment + agriculture-commerce-industry dominated type, concurrent operation + modern agriculture dominated type, employment export + compound featured agriculture dominated type, employment export+ compound ecological agriculture-tourism dominated type. Finally, this article puts forward the guarantee mechanism of rural off-farm employment and talent cultivation and industrial integration in order to promote the positive interaction between rural off-farm employment and farmers' income growth.
Illustrating the dialectical relationship between rural off-farm employment, farmers' income growth and agricultural and rural development, and constructing regional modes of rural revitalization are of great significance for orderly promoting urbanization, and realizing the prosperity of farmers' living and rural revitalization. This article first divides the counties of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region into five types of region: Beijing and Tianjin suburban region(I), Northeast Hebei region(II), Central Hebei Plain region(III), Taihang Mountains region(IV) and Bashang region(V). Then it measures the spatial effect of rural off-farm employment on farmers' income growth by using panel data of the counties of Beijing-TianjinHebei Region and Spatial Regression Model. Finally, this paper refines the regional modes of rural revitalization in the study region. The results show that:(1) from 2000 to 2016, the rural per capita net income increased from 2486 yuan to 11920 yuan, while the rate of rural off-farm employment rose from 38.9% to 57.5%; the order of the rate of rural off-farm employment in five types of region was I>III>II>IV>V, and the order of the rural per capita net income was I>II>III>IV>V;(2) the rural off-farm employment effectively promotes the farmers' income growth; the process of rural off-farm employment leads to the change of farmers' income structure showing a trend of shift from one to another: the stronger the role of off-farm employment income in farmers' income growth, the weaker the role of agricultural income in farmers' income growth; every unit increase of the rate of rural off-farm employment leads to9.215 units increase of farmers' income; the elasticity coefficients of the rate of rural off-farm employment to farmers' income are 29.986,-23.605,-10.388, and 9.951 in I, II, III, and V region, respectively, and there is no significant relationship between them in IV region;(3)according to the characteristic, mechanism and future development trend of rural off-farm employment and farmers' income growth in different regional types, four regional modes of rural revitalization in this region are refined, namely, stable employment + agriculture-commerce-industry dominated type, concurrent operation + modern agriculture dominated type, employment export + compound featured agriculture dominated type, employment export+ compound ecological agriculture-tourism dominated type. Finally, this article puts forward the guarantee mechanism of rural off-farm employment and talent cultivation and industrial integration in order to promote the positive interaction between rural off-farm employment and farmers' income growth.
引文
[1]Liu Y,Li Y.Revitalize the world's countryside.Nature,2017,548(7667):275-277.
[2]何仁伟.城乡融合与乡村振兴:理论探讨、机理阐释与实现路径.地理研究,2018,37(11):2127-2140.[He Renwei.Urban-rural integration and rural revitalization:Theory,mechanism and implementation.Geographical Research,2018,37(11):2127-2140.]
[3]刘彦随.中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴.地理学报,2018,73(4):637-650.[Liu Yansui.Research on the urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in the new era in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(4):637-650.]
[4]Li Y,Long H,Liu Y.Spatio-temporal pattern of China’s rural development:a rurality index perspective.Journal of Rural Studies,2015,(38):12-26.
[5]柳建平,张永丽.劳动力流动对贫困地区农村经济的影响:基于甘肃10个贫困村调查资料的分析.中国农村观察,2009,(3):63-74.[Liu Jianping,Zhang Yongli.Research on the relation between migration of rural labor force and the development of rural economy in Poverty areas.China Rural Survey,2009,(3):63-74.]
[6]胡枫.农民工汇款与家庭收入不平等:基于反事实收入的分析.人口研究,2010,34(3):89-100.[Hu Feng.Migrant remittances and household income inequality:A counterfactual analysis.Population Research,2010,34(3):89-100.]
[7]Sauer J,Davidova S,Gorton M.Land fragmentation,market integration and farm efficiency:empirical evidence from Kosovo.General Information,2012,(8):16-18.
[8]刘慧.中国农村居民收入区域差异变化的因子解析.地理学报,2008,63(8):799-806.[Liu Hui.Factor decomposition of rural regional income inequality changes in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(8):799-806.]
[9]刘玉,潘瑜春,唐林楠.京津冀地区县域农业发展与农民收入的时空耦合特征.经济地理,2017,37(2):141-148.[Liu Yu,Pan Yuchun,Tang Linnan.Spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of agricultural development and farmers’income at county-level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.Economic Geography,2017,37(2):141-148.]
[10]李裕瑞,曹智,郑小玉,等.我国实施精准扶贫的区域模式与可持续途径.中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):279-288.[Li Yurui,Cao Zhi,Zheng Xiaoyu,et al.Regional and sustainable approach for target-poverty alleviation and development of China.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Science,2016,31(3):279-288.]
[11]Ali A.Population pressure,agricultural intensification and changes in rural systems in Bangladesh.Geoforum,2007,38(4):720-738.
[12]龙花楼,刘彦随,邹健.中国东部沿海地区乡村发展类型及其乡村性评价.地理学报,2009,64(4):427-434.[Long Hualou,Liu Yansui,Zou Jian.Assessment of rural development types and their rurality in eastern coastal China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):426-434.]
[13]沈孝强,吴次芳,方明.浙江省产业、人口与土地非农化的协调性分析.中国人口,资源与环境,2014,24(9):129-134.[Shen Xiaoqiang,Wu Cifang,Fang Ming.Coordination of industry,population and land deagriculturalization during the rapid process of urbanization in Zhejiang Province.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(9):129-134.]
[14]曹广忠,马嘉文.中国城镇化与非农化的空间分异、相互关系和形成机制.地理研究,2016,35(12):51-62.[Cao Guangzhong,Ma Jiawen.Spatial pattern,mutual relationship and driving forces of China's urbanization and non-agriculturalization.Geographical Research,2016,35(12):51-62.]
[15]蓝庆新,陈超凡.新型城镇化推动产业结构升级了吗?:基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量研究.财经研究,2013,39(12):57-71.[Lan Qingxin,Chen Chaofan.Does new-type urbanization promote the upgrading of industrial structure?spatial econometric research based on China’s provincial panel data.Journal of Finance and Economics,2013,39(12):57-71.]
[16]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?:基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究.管理世界,2012,(2):30-43.[Xu Helian,Deng Yuping.Does the FDI leads to environmental pollution in China?Based on China’s provincial panel data.Management World,2012,(2):30-43.]
[17]Anselin L.Spatial Econometric:Methods and Models.Journal of the American Statistical Association,1990,85(411):160.
[18]Bruce A Blonigen,Ronald B Davies,Glen R Waddell,et al.FDI in space:Spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment.European Economic Review,2007,51(5):1303-1325.
[19]刘彦随,张紫雯,王介勇.中国农业地域分异与现代农业区划方案.地理学报,2018,73(2):203-218.[Liu Yansui,Zhang Ziwen,Wang Jieyong.Regional differentiation and comprehensive regionalization scheme of modern agriculture in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(2):203-218.]
[20]杨怀德,李勇进,冯起,等.石羊河流域不同区域农户生计多样性分析.干旱区地理(汉文版),2016,39(1):199-206.[Yang Huaide,Li Yongjin,Feng Qi,et al.A comparative analysis of rural household livelihoods diversity among different regions of Shiyang River Basin,NW China.Arid Land Geography,2016,39(1):199-206.]
[21]蒲艳萍,李霞.劳动力流动对农村经济的影响效应:基于对四川省调查数据的分析.人口与经济,2011,(1):39-45.[Pu Yanxia,Li Xia.The influence of the movement of labor on the rural economy:Based on the analysis of survey in Sichuan Province.Population&Economics,2011,(1):39-45.]
(1)由于2013—2016年国家统计局将农村居民人均纯收入指标调整为农村居民人均可支配收入,本研究2013—2016年农村居民人均纯收入由上一年农村居民人均纯收入乘以农村居民人均可支配收入增长率换算得出。
(2)京津冀地区及各地域类型区农村居民人均纯收入由各县农村居民人均纯收入与各县农业人口换算得出。
[2]何仁伟.城乡融合与乡村振兴:理论探讨、机理阐释与实现路径.地理研究,2018,37(11):2127-2140.[He Renwei.Urban-rural integration and rural revitalization:Theory,mechanism and implementation.Geographical Research,2018,37(11):2127-2140.]
[3]刘彦随.中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴.地理学报,2018,73(4):637-650.[Liu Yansui.Research on the urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in the new era in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(4):637-650.]
[4]Li Y,Long H,Liu Y.Spatio-temporal pattern of China’s rural development:a rurality index perspective.Journal of Rural Studies,2015,(38):12-26.
[5]柳建平,张永丽.劳动力流动对贫困地区农村经济的影响:基于甘肃10个贫困村调查资料的分析.中国农村观察,2009,(3):63-74.[Liu Jianping,Zhang Yongli.Research on the relation between migration of rural labor force and the development of rural economy in Poverty areas.China Rural Survey,2009,(3):63-74.]
[6]胡枫.农民工汇款与家庭收入不平等:基于反事实收入的分析.人口研究,2010,34(3):89-100.[Hu Feng.Migrant remittances and household income inequality:A counterfactual analysis.Population Research,2010,34(3):89-100.]
[7]Sauer J,Davidova S,Gorton M.Land fragmentation,market integration and farm efficiency:empirical evidence from Kosovo.General Information,2012,(8):16-18.
[8]刘慧.中国农村居民收入区域差异变化的因子解析.地理学报,2008,63(8):799-806.[Liu Hui.Factor decomposition of rural regional income inequality changes in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(8):799-806.]
[9]刘玉,潘瑜春,唐林楠.京津冀地区县域农业发展与农民收入的时空耦合特征.经济地理,2017,37(2):141-148.[Liu Yu,Pan Yuchun,Tang Linnan.Spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of agricultural development and farmers’income at county-level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.Economic Geography,2017,37(2):141-148.]
[10]李裕瑞,曹智,郑小玉,等.我国实施精准扶贫的区域模式与可持续途径.中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):279-288.[Li Yurui,Cao Zhi,Zheng Xiaoyu,et al.Regional and sustainable approach for target-poverty alleviation and development of China.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Science,2016,31(3):279-288.]
[11]Ali A.Population pressure,agricultural intensification and changes in rural systems in Bangladesh.Geoforum,2007,38(4):720-738.
[12]龙花楼,刘彦随,邹健.中国东部沿海地区乡村发展类型及其乡村性评价.地理学报,2009,64(4):427-434.[Long Hualou,Liu Yansui,Zou Jian.Assessment of rural development types and their rurality in eastern coastal China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):426-434.]
[13]沈孝强,吴次芳,方明.浙江省产业、人口与土地非农化的协调性分析.中国人口,资源与环境,2014,24(9):129-134.[Shen Xiaoqiang,Wu Cifang,Fang Ming.Coordination of industry,population and land deagriculturalization during the rapid process of urbanization in Zhejiang Province.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(9):129-134.]
[14]曹广忠,马嘉文.中国城镇化与非农化的空间分异、相互关系和形成机制.地理研究,2016,35(12):51-62.[Cao Guangzhong,Ma Jiawen.Spatial pattern,mutual relationship and driving forces of China's urbanization and non-agriculturalization.Geographical Research,2016,35(12):51-62.]
[15]蓝庆新,陈超凡.新型城镇化推动产业结构升级了吗?:基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量研究.财经研究,2013,39(12):57-71.[Lan Qingxin,Chen Chaofan.Does new-type urbanization promote the upgrading of industrial structure?spatial econometric research based on China’s provincial panel data.Journal of Finance and Economics,2013,39(12):57-71.]
[16]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?:基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究.管理世界,2012,(2):30-43.[Xu Helian,Deng Yuping.Does the FDI leads to environmental pollution in China?Based on China’s provincial panel data.Management World,2012,(2):30-43.]
[17]Anselin L.Spatial Econometric:Methods and Models.Journal of the American Statistical Association,1990,85(411):160.
[18]Bruce A Blonigen,Ronald B Davies,Glen R Waddell,et al.FDI in space:Spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment.European Economic Review,2007,51(5):1303-1325.
[19]刘彦随,张紫雯,王介勇.中国农业地域分异与现代农业区划方案.地理学报,2018,73(2):203-218.[Liu Yansui,Zhang Ziwen,Wang Jieyong.Regional differentiation and comprehensive regionalization scheme of modern agriculture in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(2):203-218.]
[20]杨怀德,李勇进,冯起,等.石羊河流域不同区域农户生计多样性分析.干旱区地理(汉文版),2016,39(1):199-206.[Yang Huaide,Li Yongjin,Feng Qi,et al.A comparative analysis of rural household livelihoods diversity among different regions of Shiyang River Basin,NW China.Arid Land Geography,2016,39(1):199-206.]
[21]蒲艳萍,李霞.劳动力流动对农村经济的影响效应:基于对四川省调查数据的分析.人口与经济,2011,(1):39-45.[Pu Yanxia,Li Xia.The influence of the movement of labor on the rural economy:Based on the analysis of survey in Sichuan Province.Population&Economics,2011,(1):39-45.]
(1)由于2013—2016年国家统计局将农村居民人均纯收入指标调整为农村居民人均可支配收入,本研究2013—2016年农村居民人均纯收入由上一年农村居民人均纯收入乘以农村居民人均可支配收入增长率换算得出。
(2)京津冀地区及各地域类型区农村居民人均纯收入由各县农村居民人均纯收入与各县农业人口换算得出。