洪水灾害危险性评价方法的研究与改进
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摘要
洪水风险分析是防洪非工程措施的重要组成部分,而洪水危险性评价是风险分析的基础。现有的洪水危险性评价方法由于需要获得淹没水深,在对洪水风险预测时要求复杂的水力学模型和高分辨率数据的支撑,但业务化过程中常常无法满足数据要求,为了简化洪水危险性评价的过程,确保评价结果的准确性,提出了一个新的简单且综合的洪水危险性评价指标(FHI,Flood Hazard Index)。该指标以GisNet和ArcGIS为软件平台,结合分布式水文模型,依据洪灾的形成机理,综合考虑分布式流量与地形指数。结合北京山区红螺谷流域的具体情况,对新指标进行了对比检验。结果显示,FHI能够真实地反映区域洪灾随空间变化的趋势,为未来洪水危险性评价与预测的研究,提供了一个全新的思路,对洪水风险研究体系的完善具有重要的现实意义。
Flood risk analysis is an important part of non-engineering flood control measures,and flood hazard assessment is the basis of risk analysis.Due to the need to obtain submerged water depth,the existing assessment methods of flood hazard requires complex hydraulic models and high-resolution data,but during operation,it is often impossible to meet the data requirements.In order to simplify the process of flood hazard assessment and ensure the accuracy of the results,this paper presents a new simple and integrated flood hazard index.The index is based on Gisnet and ArcGIS and combines with the distributed hydrological model.In light of the formation mechanism of flood hazard,the index comprehensively considers the natural attribute of distributed streamflow and topographic index.Based on the specific situation of the Hongluogu in Beijing mountain area,we tested the new index.The results showed that FHI can truly reflect the trend of regional flood with spatial change.It can provide a new idea for the future flood hazard assessment,and has great significance to the improvement of flood risk study system.
Flood risk analysis is an important part of non-engineering flood control measures,and flood hazard assessment is the basis of risk analysis.Due to the need to obtain submerged water depth,the existing assessment methods of flood hazard requires complex hydraulic models and high-resolution data,but during operation,it is often impossible to meet the data requirements.In order to simplify the process of flood hazard assessment and ensure the accuracy of the results,this paper presents a new simple and integrated flood hazard index.The index is based on Gisnet and ArcGIS and combines with the distributed hydrological model.In light of the formation mechanism of flood hazard,the index comprehensively considers the natural attribute of distributed streamflow and topographic index.Based on the specific situation of the Hongluogu in Beijing mountain area,we tested the new index.The results showed that FHI can truly reflect the trend of regional flood with spatial change.It can provide a new idea for the future flood hazard assessment,and has great significance to the improvement of flood risk study system.
引文
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[19]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰,等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):15-24.(ZHOU C H,WAN Q,HUANG S F,et al.A GIS-based approach to flood risk zonation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2000,55(1):15-24.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20005.05.004.
[20]何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2002(4):84-89.(HE B Y,ZHANG H L,ZHANG S,et al.GIS-based risk evaluation for flood disaster in Hubei Province[J].Journal of natural disasters,2002(4):84-89.(in Chinese))
[21]黄诗峰,徐美,陈德清.GIS支持下的河网密度提取及其在洪水危险性分析中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2001(4):129-132.(HUANG S F,XU M,CHEN D Q.GIS-based extraction of drainage network density and it′s application to flood hazard analysis[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001(4):129-132.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13577/j.jnd.2001.0424.
[22]叶爱中,夏军,王纲胜.基于数字高程模型的河网提取及子流域生成[J].水利学报,2005,36(5):531-537.(YE A Z,XIA J,WANG G S.Drainage network extraction and sub-catchment delineation based on digital elevation model[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2005,36(5):531-537.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2005.05.004.
[23]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.(WEI Y M,JIN J L,YANG C J.et al.Theory of risk management of flood disaster[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002.(in Chinese))
[24]BEVEN K J,KIRKBY M J.A physically based,variable contributing area model of basin hydrology[J].Hydrological Sciences Bulletin,1979,24:43-68.DOI:10.1080/02626667909491834.
[25]BEVEN K J.TOPMODEL:A critique[J].Hydrological Processes,1997,11:1069-1085.DOI:10.1002/(SICI)10991085(199707)11:9<1069::AID-HYP545>3.0.CO;2-O.
[26]ZHANG W,MONTGOMERY D R.Digital elevation model grid size,landscape representation,and hydrological simulation[J].Water Resources Research,1994,30(4):1019-1028.DOI:10.1029/93WR03553.
[27]邓慧平,李秀彬.地形指数的物理意义分析[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(2):16-20.(DENG H P,LI X B.Relationship of upslope contribution area and soil water content in topmodel[J].Progress in Geography,2002,21(2):16-20.(in Chinese))
[28]XIA J,WANG G S,TAN G,et al.Development of distributed time-variant gain model for nonlinear hydrological systems[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,2005,48(6):713-723.
[29]YE A,DUAN Q,ZENG H,et al.A distributed time-variant gain hydrological model based on remote sensing[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2010,1(3),222-230.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2010.03.005.
[30]夏军,叶爱中,王蕊,等.跨流域调水的大尺度分布式水文模型研究与应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2011,1:1-8.(XIA J,YE A Z,WANG R,et al.Large scale distributed hydrological model of inter-basin water transfer and its application[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2011,1:1-8.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2011.01001.
[31]叶爱中,夏军,王纲胜.基于动力网络的分布式运动波汇流模型[J].人民黄河.2006(2):26-28.(YE A Z,XIA J,WANG G S.Dynamic network-based distributed kinematic wave affluent model[J].Yellow River,2006,(2):26-28.(in Chinese))
[32]YE A,DUAN Q,ZHAN C,et al.Improving kinematic wave routing scheme in community land model[J].Hydrology Research,2013,44(5),886-903.DOI:10.2166/NH.2012.145.
[2]许有鹏,李立国,蔡国民,等.GIS技术下中小流域洪水风险图系统研究[J].地理科学,2004,24(4):452-457.(XU Y P,LI L G,CAI G M,et al.Flood risk map system in medium and small basins in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2004,24(4):452-457.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13249/j.cnke.sgs.2004.04.011.
[3]DOTTORI F,SALAMON P,BIANCHI A,et al.Development and evaluation of a framework for global flood hazard mapping[J].Advances in Water Resources,2016,94:87-102.DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.002.
[4]魏一鸣,范英,金菊良.洪水灾害风险分析的系统理论[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(2):7-11.(WEI Y M,FAN Y,JIN J L.System theory for risk analysis of flood disaster[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2001,4(2):7-11.(in Chinese))
[5]张会,张继权,韩俊山.基于GIS技术的洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究—以辽河中下游地区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):141-146.(ZHANG H,ZHANG J Q,HAN J S.GISbased assessment and zoning of flood/waterlogging disaster risk:a case study on middle and lower reaches of Liaohe River[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(6):141-146.(in Chinese))
[6]马建明.成都平原岷江流域水灾风险分析信息系统[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,1997.(MA J M.Flood risk analysis information system of Minjiang River in Chengdu plain[D].Beijing:Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,1997.(in Chinese))
[7]朱元甡.洪泛区洪灾风险分析和管理[J].水利经济,1990(2):55-62.(ZHU Y S.Flood risk analysis and management in flood plains[J].Water Economy,1990(2):55-62.(in Chinese))
[8]梅亚东.蓄滞洪区分洪与减灾的理论与应用研究[D].武汉:武汉水利电力大学,1992.(MEI Y D.Study on theory and application of flood diversion and disaster mitigation in detention basin[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electrical Engineering,1992.(in Chinese))
[9]姜智怀,巩志宇,李嫦,等.基于降水时空分布情景模拟的暴雨洪涝致灾危险性评价[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(5):464-470.(JIANG Z H,GONG Z Y,LI C,et al.Storm flooding disaster risk assessment based on scenarios simulation of spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2016,35(5):464-470.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.05.008.
[10]LWE R,URICH C,STO.DOMINGO N,et al.Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations-A new generation of urban planning tools[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,550:355-367.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.009.
[11]SILVA S F,MARTINHO M,CAPITO R,et al.An indexbased method for coastal-flood risk assessment in low-lying areas(Costa de Caparica,Portugal)[J].Ocean&Coastal Management,2017,144,90-104.DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.04.010.
[12]NTAJAL J,LAMPTEY B L,MAHAMADOU I B,et al.Flood disaster risk mapping in the Lower Mono River Basin in Togo,West Africa[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,23:93-103.DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.03.015.
[13]WANG Z,LAI C,CHEN X,et al.Flood hazard risk assessment model based on random forest[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:1130-1141.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.008.
[14]KAZAKIS N,KOUGIAS I,PATSIALIS T.Assessment of flood hazard areas at a regional scale using an index-based approach and Analytical Hierarchy Process:Application in Rhodope-Evros region,Greece[J].Science of The Total Environment,2015,538:555-563.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.055.
[15]WANG Y,LI Z,TANG Z,et al.A GIS-based spatial multicriteria approach for flood risk assessment in the Dongting Lake Region,Hunan,Central China[J].Water Resources Management,2011,25:3465-3484.
[16]刘鑫,赵鲁强,刘娜,等.伊犁河流域春季融雪型洪水危险性评价与区划[J].气象科技进展,2016(6):35-41.(LIU X,ZHAO L Q,LIU N,et al.Risk evaluation of the spring snowmelt flood in Ili River basin and it′s mapping[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2016(6):35-41.(in Chinese))
[17]潘安定,刘会平,陈碧珊,等.广州市洪水灾害危险性评价初步研究[J].自然灾害学报,2010(4):23-28.(PAN A D,LIU H P,CHEN B S,et al.Primary study on risk evaluation of flood disaster in Guangzhou City[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,(04):23-28.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13577/j.jnd.2010.0404.
[18]张国芳,查小春,石晓静,等.汉江上游汉中市洪水灾害风险评价研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2016(6):28-34.(ZHANG G F,ZHA X C,SHI X J,et al.Flood hazard risk assessment of Hanzhong city at the upper reaches of Hanjiang River[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2016(6):28-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2016.06.004.
[19]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰,等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):15-24.(ZHOU C H,WAN Q,HUANG S F,et al.A GIS-based approach to flood risk zonation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2000,55(1):15-24.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20005.05.004.
[20]何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2002(4):84-89.(HE B Y,ZHANG H L,ZHANG S,et al.GIS-based risk evaluation for flood disaster in Hubei Province[J].Journal of natural disasters,2002(4):84-89.(in Chinese))
[21]黄诗峰,徐美,陈德清.GIS支持下的河网密度提取及其在洪水危险性分析中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2001(4):129-132.(HUANG S F,XU M,CHEN D Q.GIS-based extraction of drainage network density and it′s application to flood hazard analysis[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001(4):129-132.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13577/j.jnd.2001.0424.
[22]叶爱中,夏军,王纲胜.基于数字高程模型的河网提取及子流域生成[J].水利学报,2005,36(5):531-537.(YE A Z,XIA J,WANG G S.Drainage network extraction and sub-catchment delineation based on digital elevation model[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2005,36(5):531-537.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2005.05.004.
[23]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.(WEI Y M,JIN J L,YANG C J.et al.Theory of risk management of flood disaster[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002.(in Chinese))
[24]BEVEN K J,KIRKBY M J.A physically based,variable contributing area model of basin hydrology[J].Hydrological Sciences Bulletin,1979,24:43-68.DOI:10.1080/02626667909491834.
[25]BEVEN K J.TOPMODEL:A critique[J].Hydrological Processes,1997,11:1069-1085.DOI:10.1002/(SICI)10991085(199707)11:9<1069::AID-HYP545>3.0.CO;2-O.
[26]ZHANG W,MONTGOMERY D R.Digital elevation model grid size,landscape representation,and hydrological simulation[J].Water Resources Research,1994,30(4):1019-1028.DOI:10.1029/93WR03553.
[27]邓慧平,李秀彬.地形指数的物理意义分析[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(2):16-20.(DENG H P,LI X B.Relationship of upslope contribution area and soil water content in topmodel[J].Progress in Geography,2002,21(2):16-20.(in Chinese))
[28]XIA J,WANG G S,TAN G,et al.Development of distributed time-variant gain model for nonlinear hydrological systems[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,2005,48(6):713-723.
[29]YE A,DUAN Q,ZENG H,et al.A distributed time-variant gain hydrological model based on remote sensing[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2010,1(3),222-230.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2010.03.005.
[30]夏军,叶爱中,王蕊,等.跨流域调水的大尺度分布式水文模型研究与应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2011,1:1-8.(XIA J,YE A Z,WANG R,et al.Large scale distributed hydrological model of inter-basin water transfer and its application[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2011,1:1-8.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2011.01001.
[31]叶爱中,夏军,王纲胜.基于动力网络的分布式运动波汇流模型[J].人民黄河.2006(2):26-28.(YE A Z,XIA J,WANG G S.Dynamic network-based distributed kinematic wave affluent model[J].Yellow River,2006,(2):26-28.(in Chinese))
[32]YE A,DUAN Q,ZHAN C,et al.Improving kinematic wave routing scheme in community land model[J].Hydrology Research,2013,44(5),886-903.DOI:10.2166/NH.2012.145.