基于AnnAGNPS模型的灞河流域非点源污染模拟研究
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摘要
以灞河流域下属子流域为研究对象,运用AnnAGNPS模型对流域内非点源污染特征进行了定量分析,并以非点源污染严重的灞河中游子流域为例,提出不同的非点源污染控制方案。结果表明:AnnAGNPS模型对径流模拟效果总体良好,率定期模拟相对误差(Re)基本在-10%～0,模拟效率系数(Ens)为0.65,相关系数(R~2)为0.81,验证期模拟Re基本在-50%～0,Ens为0.68,R~2为0.71。利用5次降雨事件数据考察AnnAGNPS模型对TN、TP污染负荷的拟合精度,AnnAGNPS模型对4次降雨的TN污染负荷模拟Re控制在-13%～5%,3次TP污染负荷模拟Re维持在-12%～40%;在非点源污染控制方案中,耕地变换成林地对TN、TP污染负荷的削减效果非常显著,假设灞河中游小流域耕地变为林地的转变率分别为30%、50%、100%时,TN污染负荷削减28.20%、43.01%、78.23%,TP污染负荷分别削减33.55%、53.94%、66.81%。
Taking the sub-basin of the Bahe River Basin as the research object AnnAGNPS model was used to quantitatively analyze the characteristics of non-point source pollution.Taking the middle reaches of the Bahe River,which was most polluted sub-basin by non-point source pollution,as an example,this paper proposed different control schemes for non-point source pollution.The results showed that the AnnAGNPS model had a good simulation effect on runoff,the relative error(Re)of simulation in calibration period was basically ranged-10%-0,simulation efficiency coefficient (Ens) was 0.65,correlation coefficient (R~2) was 0.81,and verification period Re was basically ranged-50%-0,Ens was 0.68,R~2 was 0.71.Fitting precision of AnnAGNPS for TN,TP pollution load simulation was tested by using the data of five rainfall events,Re for TN pollution load of 4 rainfall events was controlled within ranged-13%-5%,Re for TP pollution load of 3 rainfall events was maintained at-12% to 40%.In the non-point source pollution control scheme,the conversion of cultivated land into forest land had a significant effect on the reduction of TN and TP pollution loads.It was assumed that if 30%,50% and 100% of arable land in the middle reaches of the Bahe River converted into forest land,the TN pollution load could be decreased by 28.20%,43.01% and 78.23%.The TP pollution load could be decreased by 33.56%,53.94% and 66.81%.
Taking the sub-basin of the Bahe River Basin as the research object AnnAGNPS model was used to quantitatively analyze the characteristics of non-point source pollution.Taking the middle reaches of the Bahe River,which was most polluted sub-basin by non-point source pollution,as an example,this paper proposed different control schemes for non-point source pollution.The results showed that the AnnAGNPS model had a good simulation effect on runoff,the relative error(Re)of simulation in calibration period was basically ranged-10%-0,simulation efficiency coefficient (Ens) was 0.65,correlation coefficient (R~2) was 0.81,and verification period Re was basically ranged-50%-0,Ens was 0.68,R~2 was 0.71.Fitting precision of AnnAGNPS for TN,TP pollution load simulation was tested by using the data of five rainfall events,Re for TN pollution load of 4 rainfall events was controlled within ranged-13%-5%,Re for TP pollution load of 3 rainfall events was maintained at-12% to 40%.In the non-point source pollution control scheme,the conversion of cultivated land into forest land had a significant effect on the reduction of TN and TP pollution loads.It was assumed that if 30%,50% and 100% of arable land in the middle reaches of the Bahe River converted into forest land,the TN pollution load could be decreased by 28.20%,43.01% and 78.23%.The TP pollution load could be decreased by 33.56%,53.94% and 66.81%.
引文
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[20]方广玲,香宝,赵卫,等.基于GIS和RUSLE的拉萨河流域土壤侵蚀研究[J].水土保持学报,2015,29(3):6-12.
[21]章文波,谢云,刘宝元.利用日雨量计算降雨侵蚀力的方法研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(6):705-711.
[22]赵倩,马建,问青春,等.应用AnnAGNPS模型模拟柴河上游农业非点源污染[J].农业环境科学学报,2010,29(2):344-351.
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[24]李家科,杨静媛,李怀恩,等.基于SWAT模型的陕西沣河流域非点源污染模拟[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(4):11-17.
[25]边金云,王飞儿,杨佳,等.基于AnnAGNPS模型四岭水库小流域氮磷流失特征的模拟研究[J].环境科学,2012,33(8):2659-2666.
[2]PEASE L M,ODUOR P,PADMANABHAN G.Estimating sediment,nitrogen,and phosphorous loads from the Pipestem Creek watershed,North Dakota,using AnnAGNPS[J].Computers&Geosciences,2010,36(3):282-291.
[3]CHAHOR Y,CASALJ,GIMNEZ R,et al.Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS model for predicting runoff and sediment yield in a small Mediterranean agricultural watershed in Navarre(Spain)[J].Agricultural Water Management,2014,134(3):24-37.
[4]黄金良,洪华生,杜鹏飞,等.AnnAGNPS模型在九龙江典型小流域的适用性检验[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(8):1135-1142.
[5]李开明,任秀文,黄国如,等.基于AnnAGNPS模型泗合水流域非点源污染模拟研究[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(增刊1):54-59.
[6]王晓,郝芳华,张璇.丹江口水库流域非点源污染的最佳管理措施优选[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(7):1335-1343.
[7]DEMETRIO A Z,PIETRO D,ENCARNACIN V T R,et al.Evaluation of surface runoff prediction by AnnAGNPS model in a large mediterranean watershed covered by olive groves[J].Land Degradation&Development,2016,27(3):811-822.
[8]涂宏志,侯鹰,陈卫平.基于AnnAGNPS模型的苇子沟流域非点源污染模拟研究[J].农业环境科学学报,2017,36(7):1345-1352.
[9]娄永才,郭青霞.岔口小流域非点源污染模型AnnAGNPS不确定性分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2018,37(5):956-964.
[10]邬明伟.基于AnnAGNPS模型的中田河流域非点源污染模拟研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2012.
[11]赵串串,张藜,王媛,等.西安市畜禽养殖结构及土地承载力分析[J].安徽农业大学学报,2016,43(1):134-139.
[12]陈伟韦.AnnAGNPS农业非点源污染模型在双阳水库汇水流域的应用研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2007.
[13]高银超.基于AnnAGNPS模型的三峡库区小江流域农业面源污染负荷研究[D].重庆:西南大学,2011.
[14]U.S.Department of Agriculture.Agriculture handbook No.703[R].Washington,D.C.:U.S.Department of Agriculture,1996.
[15]陕西省土壤普查办公室.陕西土壤[M].北京:科学出版社,1992.
[16]西安市统计局,国家统计局西安调查队.西安统计年鉴(2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[17]左海军,张奇,徐力刚.农田氮素淋溶损失影响因素及防治对策研究[J].环境污染与防治,2008,30(12):83-89.
[18]徐勇.陕西省农业非点源污染评价与控制研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2010.
[19]王敏,丁明.太阳日总辐射量的Box-Jenkins模型[J].太阳能学报,2012,33(3):386-390.
[20]方广玲,香宝,赵卫,等.基于GIS和RUSLE的拉萨河流域土壤侵蚀研究[J].水土保持学报,2015,29(3):6-12.
[21]章文波,谢云,刘宝元.利用日雨量计算降雨侵蚀力的方法研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(6):705-711.
[22]赵倩,马建,问青春,等.应用AnnAGNPS模型模拟柴河上游农业非点源污染[J].农业环境科学学报,2010,29(2):344-351.
[23]邹桂红.基于AnnAGNPS模型的非点源污染研究---以大沽河典型小流域为例[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2007.
[24]李家科,杨静媛,李怀恩,等.基于SWAT模型的陕西沣河流域非点源污染模拟[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(4):11-17.
[25]边金云,王飞儿,杨佳,等.基于AnnAGNPS模型四岭水库小流域氮磷流失特征的模拟研究[J].环境科学,2012,33(8):2659-2666.