经济增长理论的变迁与未来:生产函数演变的视角
|
摘要
本文从生产函数演变的视角探讨增长理论的变迁,找出各种理论在生产函数形式上的异同,同时指明其背后隐含的经济意义和内在逻辑上的重大差别。从资本积累、外生技术进步到内生增长模型,本文剖析了这些模型是怎样建立起一般均衡的,并厘清了内生增长的决定因素。我们认为增长理论的未来发展不能局限于生产函数方面的考量,需转向"算法"(Algorithm)模型的开拓。在计算技术大幅提升的当下,我们应当加大力度开发"Agent-Based Model"(ABM)、"Agent-Based Computational Economics"(ACE)去模拟经济个体在不同政策环境和规章制度下的决策,探讨政策和体制变化给经济增长带来的影响。"算法"模型的第一目标是在有限的现有成果基础上,建立起相对小型但具有拓展潜力的标准化增长理论模型,逐渐形成新的研究范式,其创新虽有难度,但成果是令人期盼的。
This paper examines the historical development of the economic growth theory from the perspective of the evolution of production functions. We identify the distinctions and commonalities in the production functions used across theories. We also point out the major differences in their underlying economic meanings and intrinsic logic. Starting with capital accumulation and exogeneous technological progress and then moving to endogenous growth theory,this paper analyzes how these models establish a general equilibrium and clarifies the determinants of endogenous growth. For future development of the growth theory,we think it unwise to limit ourselves to the domain of production function; rather,we need to venture into Algorithm-based models. With great improvements of computing technology,we should put efforts into developing"Agent-Based Models"( ABM) and "Agent-Based Computational Economics"( ACE) to stimulate economic individuals ' decision-making under different policy environments and regulations,and study the impact of policy and institutional changes on economic growth. The first goal of Algorithm-based models is to build a proto-type theoretical growth model based on the existing research findings and gradually form a new research paradigm. The initial steps are difficult but the prospect is great with much to look forward to.
This paper examines the historical development of the economic growth theory from the perspective of the evolution of production functions. We identify the distinctions and commonalities in the production functions used across theories. We also point out the major differences in their underlying economic meanings and intrinsic logic. Starting with capital accumulation and exogeneous technological progress and then moving to endogenous growth theory,this paper analyzes how these models establish a general equilibrium and clarifies the determinants of endogenous growth. For future development of the growth theory,we think it unwise to limit ourselves to the domain of production function; rather,we need to venture into Algorithm-based models. With great improvements of computing technology,we should put efforts into developing"Agent-Based Models"( ABM) and "Agent-Based Computational Economics"( ACE) to stimulate economic individuals ' decision-making under different policy environments and regulations,and study the impact of policy and institutional changes on economic growth. The first goal of Algorithm-based models is to build a proto-type theoretical growth model based on the existing research findings and gradually form a new research paradigm. The initial steps are difficult but the prospect is great with much to look forward to.
引文
1.沈沁、谢丹阳,2016:《全球经济增长的可持续性:不容置疑》,《金融研究》第2期。
2. Aghion,Philippe,and Peter Howitt. 1992.“A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction.” Econometrica60(2):323-351.
3.Aiyagari,S.Rao.1994.“Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics109(3):659-684.
4.Arrow,Kenneth J. 1962.“The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing.”The Review of Economic Studies29(3):155-73.
5.Barro,Robert J. 1990.“Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 98(5):103-125.
6.Barro,Robert J.,and Xavier Sala-i-Martin.1992.“Convergence.”Journal of Political Economy 100(2):223-251.
7.Becker,Gary S.1962.“Investment in Human Capital:A Theoretical Analysis.”Journal of Political Economy 70(5):9-49.
8. Benhabib,Jess,Alberto Bisin,and Shenghao Zhu. 2011.“The Distribution of Wealth and Fiscal Policy in Economies with Finitely Lived Agents.”Econometrica 79(1):123-157.
9. Benhabib,Jess,and Roberto Perli. 1994.“Uniqueness and Indeterminacy:On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth.”Journal of Economic Theory 63(1):113-142.
10.Benhabib,Jess,Roberto Perli,and Danyang Xie. 1994.“Monopolistic Competition,Indeterminacy and Growth.”Ricerche Economiche 48(4):279-298.
11.Bolt,J. and J. L. van Zanden. 2014.“The Maddison Project:Collaborative Research on Historical National Accounts.”The Economic History Review 67(3):627-651.
12.Caiani,Alessandro,Antoine Godin,Eugenio Caverzasi,Mauro Gallegati,Stephen Kinsella,and Joseph Stiglitz.2016.“Agent Based-Stock Flow Consistent Macroeconomics:Towards a Benchmark Model.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 69:375-408.
13.Caselli,Francesco,and Jaume Ventura. 2000.“A Representative Consumer Theory of Distribution.”American Economic Review 90(4):909-926.
14.Deissenberg,Christophe,Sander van der Hoog,and Herbert Dawid.2008.“EURACE:A Massively Parallel Agent-Based Model of the European Economy.”Applied Mathematics and Computation 204(2):541-552.
15. Delli Gatti,Domenico,Antonio Palestrini,Edoardo Gaffeo,Gianfranco Giulioni,and Mauro Gallegati. 2008.Emergent Macroeconomics:An Agent-based Approach to Business Fluctuations.Milan:Springer.
16.Devarajan,Shantayanan,Danyang Xie,and Heng-fu Zou. 1998.“Should Public Capital Be Subsidized or Provided?”Journal of Monetary Economics 41(2):319-331.
17.Dixit,Avinash and Joseph Stiglitz.1977.“Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity.”American Economic Review 67(3):297-308.
18.Dosi,Giovanni,Giorgio Fagiolo,and Andrea Roventini.2010.“Schumpeter Meeting Keynes:A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles.”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34(9):1748-1767.
19.Ethier,Wilfred.1982.“National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade.”American Economic Review 72(3):389-405.
20.Grossman,Gene M.,and Elhanan Helpman.1991a.“Quality Ladders and Product Cycles.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2):557-586.
21. Grossman,Gene M.,and Elhanan Helpman. 1991b.“Trade,Knowledge Spillover,and Growth.” European Economic Review 35(2-3):517-526.
22.Huggett,Mark.1993.“The Risk-Free Rate in Heterogeneous-Agent Incomplete-Insurance Economies.”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17(5-6):953-969.
23.Jones,Charles I.1995.“R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 103(4):759-784.
24.Lengnick,Matthias.2013.“Agent-Based Macroeconomics:A Baseline Model.”Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization 86:102-120.
25.Lucas,Robert E.,Jr. 1988.“On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics22(1):3-42.
26.Kaplan,Greg,Benjamin Moll,and Giovanni L.Violante.2018.“Monetary Policy According to HANK.”American Economic Review 108(3):697-743.
27.Maddison,Angus.2006.The World Economy.Paris:OECD Development Centre.
28.Ramsey,Frank Plumpton.1928.“A Mathematical Theory of Saving.”The Economic Journal 38(152):543-559.
29.Rebelo,Sergio.1991.“Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 99(3):500-521.
30.Rivera-Batiz,Luis and Paul Romer. 1991.“Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2):531-555.
31.Romer,Paul M.1986.“Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 94(5):1002-1037.
32.Romer,Paul M.1990.“Endogenous Technological Change.”Journal of Political Economy 98(5):71-102.
33.Schultz,Theodore W.1961.“Investment in Human Capital.”The American Economic Review 51(1):1-17.
34.Solow,Robert M. 1956.“A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.”Quarterly Journal of Economics70(1):65-94.
35.Tesfatsion,Leigh.2001.“Introduction to the Special Issue on Agent-Based Computational Economics.”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 25(3-4):281-293.
36.Tesfatsion,Leigh,and Kenneth L. Judd. 2006. Handbook of Computational Economics,Volume 2:Agent-Based Computational Economics.Amsterdam:North-Holland.
37.Xie,Danyang.1991.“Increasing Returns and Increasing Rates of Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 99(2):429-435.
38.Xie,Danyang. 1994.“Divergence in Economic Performance:Transitional Dynamics with Multiple Equilibria.”Journal of Economic Theory 63(1):97-112.
39.Xie,Danyang.1998.“An Endogenous Growth Model with Expanding Ranges of Consumer Goods and Producer Durables.”International Economic Review 39(2):439-460.
40.Young,Allyn A.1928.“Increasing Returns and Economic Progress.”The Economic Journal 38(152):527-542.
(1)数值分析,参见Benhabib和Perli(1994);显示解,参见Xie(1994)。
(1)当然,我们也可以知难而退,选择坐等,等待Alpha Zero等人工智能通过自学推演出最适合我们的经济政策和政治制度。这一天也许并不很遥远,而我们人类需要思考的倒是以下两个大问题。第一,当具有人工智能的机器人开始独立地寻求创新时,世界将会是什么样子?这些机器人们不仅站在人类“巨人的肩膀”上,而且还站在机器人自己“巨人的肩膀”上。来自人工智能的冲击将怎样影响我们的现实世界呢?第二,人类与机器人未来的混为一体是否不可避免?如果是,那么会以哪几种形式?
2. Aghion,Philippe,and Peter Howitt. 1992.“A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction.” Econometrica60(2):323-351.
3.Aiyagari,S.Rao.1994.“Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics109(3):659-684.
4.Arrow,Kenneth J. 1962.“The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing.”The Review of Economic Studies29(3):155-73.
5.Barro,Robert J. 1990.“Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 98(5):103-125.
6.Barro,Robert J.,and Xavier Sala-i-Martin.1992.“Convergence.”Journal of Political Economy 100(2):223-251.
7.Becker,Gary S.1962.“Investment in Human Capital:A Theoretical Analysis.”Journal of Political Economy 70(5):9-49.
8. Benhabib,Jess,Alberto Bisin,and Shenghao Zhu. 2011.“The Distribution of Wealth and Fiscal Policy in Economies with Finitely Lived Agents.”Econometrica 79(1):123-157.
9. Benhabib,Jess,and Roberto Perli. 1994.“Uniqueness and Indeterminacy:On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth.”Journal of Economic Theory 63(1):113-142.
10.Benhabib,Jess,Roberto Perli,and Danyang Xie. 1994.“Monopolistic Competition,Indeterminacy and Growth.”Ricerche Economiche 48(4):279-298.
11.Bolt,J. and J. L. van Zanden. 2014.“The Maddison Project:Collaborative Research on Historical National Accounts.”The Economic History Review 67(3):627-651.
12.Caiani,Alessandro,Antoine Godin,Eugenio Caverzasi,Mauro Gallegati,Stephen Kinsella,and Joseph Stiglitz.2016.“Agent Based-Stock Flow Consistent Macroeconomics:Towards a Benchmark Model.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 69:375-408.
13.Caselli,Francesco,and Jaume Ventura. 2000.“A Representative Consumer Theory of Distribution.”American Economic Review 90(4):909-926.
14.Deissenberg,Christophe,Sander van der Hoog,and Herbert Dawid.2008.“EURACE:A Massively Parallel Agent-Based Model of the European Economy.”Applied Mathematics and Computation 204(2):541-552.
15. Delli Gatti,Domenico,Antonio Palestrini,Edoardo Gaffeo,Gianfranco Giulioni,and Mauro Gallegati. 2008.Emergent Macroeconomics:An Agent-based Approach to Business Fluctuations.Milan:Springer.
16.Devarajan,Shantayanan,Danyang Xie,and Heng-fu Zou. 1998.“Should Public Capital Be Subsidized or Provided?”Journal of Monetary Economics 41(2):319-331.
17.Dixit,Avinash and Joseph Stiglitz.1977.“Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity.”American Economic Review 67(3):297-308.
18.Dosi,Giovanni,Giorgio Fagiolo,and Andrea Roventini.2010.“Schumpeter Meeting Keynes:A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles.”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34(9):1748-1767.
19.Ethier,Wilfred.1982.“National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade.”American Economic Review 72(3):389-405.
20.Grossman,Gene M.,and Elhanan Helpman.1991a.“Quality Ladders and Product Cycles.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2):557-586.
21. Grossman,Gene M.,and Elhanan Helpman. 1991b.“Trade,Knowledge Spillover,and Growth.” European Economic Review 35(2-3):517-526.
22.Huggett,Mark.1993.“The Risk-Free Rate in Heterogeneous-Agent Incomplete-Insurance Economies.”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17(5-6):953-969.
23.Jones,Charles I.1995.“R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 103(4):759-784.
24.Lengnick,Matthias.2013.“Agent-Based Macroeconomics:A Baseline Model.”Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization 86:102-120.
25.Lucas,Robert E.,Jr. 1988.“On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics22(1):3-42.
26.Kaplan,Greg,Benjamin Moll,and Giovanni L.Violante.2018.“Monetary Policy According to HANK.”American Economic Review 108(3):697-743.
27.Maddison,Angus.2006.The World Economy.Paris:OECD Development Centre.
28.Ramsey,Frank Plumpton.1928.“A Mathematical Theory of Saving.”The Economic Journal 38(152):543-559.
29.Rebelo,Sergio.1991.“Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 99(3):500-521.
30.Rivera-Batiz,Luis and Paul Romer. 1991.“Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2):531-555.
31.Romer,Paul M.1986.“Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 94(5):1002-1037.
32.Romer,Paul M.1990.“Endogenous Technological Change.”Journal of Political Economy 98(5):71-102.
33.Schultz,Theodore W.1961.“Investment in Human Capital.”The American Economic Review 51(1):1-17.
34.Solow,Robert M. 1956.“A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.”Quarterly Journal of Economics70(1):65-94.
35.Tesfatsion,Leigh.2001.“Introduction to the Special Issue on Agent-Based Computational Economics.”Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 25(3-4):281-293.
36.Tesfatsion,Leigh,and Kenneth L. Judd. 2006. Handbook of Computational Economics,Volume 2:Agent-Based Computational Economics.Amsterdam:North-Holland.
37.Xie,Danyang.1991.“Increasing Returns and Increasing Rates of Growth.”Journal of Political Economy 99(2):429-435.
38.Xie,Danyang. 1994.“Divergence in Economic Performance:Transitional Dynamics with Multiple Equilibria.”Journal of Economic Theory 63(1):97-112.
39.Xie,Danyang.1998.“An Endogenous Growth Model with Expanding Ranges of Consumer Goods and Producer Durables.”International Economic Review 39(2):439-460.
40.Young,Allyn A.1928.“Increasing Returns and Economic Progress.”The Economic Journal 38(152):527-542.
(1)数值分析,参见Benhabib和Perli(1994);显示解,参见Xie(1994)。
(1)当然,我们也可以知难而退,选择坐等,等待Alpha Zero等人工智能通过自学推演出最适合我们的经济政策和政治制度。这一天也许并不很遥远,而我们人类需要思考的倒是以下两个大问题。第一,当具有人工智能的机器人开始独立地寻求创新时,世界将会是什么样子?这些机器人们不仅站在人类“巨人的肩膀”上,而且还站在机器人自己“巨人的肩膀”上。来自人工智能的冲击将怎样影响我们的现实世界呢?第二,人类与机器人未来的混为一体是否不可避免?如果是,那么会以哪几种形式?