基于Logistic模型的江西省崩岗侵蚀风险评估
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摘要
崩岗侵蚀是我国南方水土流失的一种特殊类型,关于崩岗的风险评估方面的研究较少。选择江西省作为研究区域,通过相关因子分析,筛选风险评估指标,利用Logistic模型计算崩岗发生风险,在此基础上采用专家打分法,计算崩岗危害风险,将崩岗发生风险与崩岗危害风险叠加,即可得到崩岗侵蚀风险,以此探讨区域尺度崩岗侵蚀风险评估的可行性。结果显示,江西省南部和西部崩岗发生风险较高,东部、北部和中部相对较低。全省崩岗危害风险总体较轻微,相对较高的危害风险呈零星分布。综合发生风险和危害风险后,江西省崩岗侵蚀以低中风险为主,占全省总面积的95%;其中,较低及以下风险占全省总面积的68%。较低及以下风险主要分布鄱阳湖周边区域,风险防控措施应以预防保护为主。中风险及以上风险主要分布在江西省南部和西部,宜采取预防保护与综合治理并重的风险防控措施。研究表明,Logistic模型对崩岗侵蚀发生风险评估是可行的。
[Background] Collapse gully erosion is a special type of soil erosion in southern China,but risk assessment research on collapse gully erosion is few. Risk assessment provides new ideas and methods for the study of collapse gully erosion and soil erosion. [Methods]This article selected Jiangxi Province as the study area. The index of the risk assessment was selected by the correlation factor analysis,and the Logistic model was used to calculate the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion. On this basis,the hazardous risk of collapsing was estimated by the expert scoring method. In the end,the risk of collapse gully erosion can be obtained by superposing the occurrence risk and hazardous risk,so as to discuss the feasibility of risk assessment of collapse gully erosion at the regional scale. [Results]Collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province are mainly distributed in such as precipitation from 1 500 mm to1 700 mm,granite red soil land,sloping from 10 degrees to 30 degrees,below 300 m altitude,vegetation coverage less than 0. 2 or from 0. 6 to 0. 8,in forest or grassland area. By using the function of geographic analysis in ARCGIS,after overlay factors and the distribution of collapse gully erosion,4 000 grid cells are sampled randomly and respectively in study area with collapse gully erosion or not,andlogistic regression model is constructed with date of collapse gully erosion distribution and 6 screened factors such as hypsography,relief,vegetation cover,soil type,land use,and rock type. For accuracy tests amount to 70. 9%,then the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province can be calculated by this logistic regression model. The occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in the south and the west of Jiangxi Province is relatively higher,and those in the eastern,northern and central are relatively lower. The hazardous risk of collapse gully erosion is generally minor in the whole province,and the hazardous areas with relatively high risk showing a sporadic distribution trend. After comprehensive analysis of the occurrence risk and the hazardous risk,the collapse gully erosion presents medium and low risk in Jiangxi Province,which possesses more than 95 percent of the province's total area. Among them,the light risks accounts for 68% of the total area of the province and is mainly distributed in the surrounding areas of Poyang Lake. The measures of risk prevention and control should be mainly focused on prevention and protection in these areas. The medium-and upper-class risks is mainly distributed in the southern and western parts of Jiangxi Province,and in these parts,risk prevention and control measures should be taken equal attention to prevention, protection and comprehensive management. [Conclusions] Finally,the study proves that Logistic model is feasible for estimating the risk of collapse gully erosion.
[Background] Collapse gully erosion is a special type of soil erosion in southern China,but risk assessment research on collapse gully erosion is few. Risk assessment provides new ideas and methods for the study of collapse gully erosion and soil erosion. [Methods]This article selected Jiangxi Province as the study area. The index of the risk assessment was selected by the correlation factor analysis,and the Logistic model was used to calculate the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion. On this basis,the hazardous risk of collapsing was estimated by the expert scoring method. In the end,the risk of collapse gully erosion can be obtained by superposing the occurrence risk and hazardous risk,so as to discuss the feasibility of risk assessment of collapse gully erosion at the regional scale. [Results]Collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province are mainly distributed in such as precipitation from 1 500 mm to1 700 mm,granite red soil land,sloping from 10 degrees to 30 degrees,below 300 m altitude,vegetation coverage less than 0. 2 or from 0. 6 to 0. 8,in forest or grassland area. By using the function of geographic analysis in ARCGIS,after overlay factors and the distribution of collapse gully erosion,4 000 grid cells are sampled randomly and respectively in study area with collapse gully erosion or not,andlogistic regression model is constructed with date of collapse gully erosion distribution and 6 screened factors such as hypsography,relief,vegetation cover,soil type,land use,and rock type. For accuracy tests amount to 70. 9%,then the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province can be calculated by this logistic regression model. The occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in the south and the west of Jiangxi Province is relatively higher,and those in the eastern,northern and central are relatively lower. The hazardous risk of collapse gully erosion is generally minor in the whole province,and the hazardous areas with relatively high risk showing a sporadic distribution trend. After comprehensive analysis of the occurrence risk and the hazardous risk,the collapse gully erosion presents medium and low risk in Jiangxi Province,which possesses more than 95 percent of the province's total area. Among them,the light risks accounts for 68% of the total area of the province and is mainly distributed in the surrounding areas of Poyang Lake. The measures of risk prevention and control should be mainly focused on prevention and protection in these areas. The medium-and upper-class risks is mainly distributed in the southern and western parts of Jiangxi Province,and in these parts,risk prevention and control measures should be taken equal attention to prevention, protection and comprehensive management. [Conclusions] Finally,the study proves that Logistic model is feasible for estimating the risk of collapse gully erosion.
引文
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[5]丘世钧.红土坡地崩岗侵蚀过程与机理[J].水土保持通报,1994,14(1):31.QIU Shijun.The process and mechanism of red earth slope disintegration erosion[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1994,14(1):31.
[6]阮伏水.福建崩岗沟侵蚀机理探讨[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),1996,12(增刊):24.RUAN Fushui.Study onerosion mechanism of collapse gully in Fujian[J].Journal of Fujian Teachers University(Natural Science),1996,12(S1):24.
[7]吴志峰,李定强,丘世钧.华南水土流失区崩岗侵蚀地貌系统分析[J].水土保持通报,1999,19(5):24.WU Zhifeng,LI Dingqiang,QIU Shijun.Systematic analysis of slope disintegration erosion landform in South China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1999,19(5):24.
[8]陈志彪,朱鹤健,刘强,等.根溪河小流域的崩岗特征及其治理措施[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(5):83.CHEN Zhibiao,ZHU Hejian,LIU Qiang,et al.Slump gully characteristic of small watershed of Genxi River and its control measures[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(5):83.
[9]张大林,刘希林.崩岗侵蚀地貌的演变过程及阶段划分[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2011(6):23.ZHANG Dalin,LIU Xilin.Evolution and phases division of collapsed gully erosion landform[J].Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment,2011(6):23.
[10]牛德奎.华南红壤丘陵区崩岗发育的环境背景与侵蚀机理研究[D].南京:南京林业大学,2009:5.NIU Dekui.Research on the environmental factors and erosive mechanism of collapsing hill in South China[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Forestry University,2009:5.
[11]张晓明,丁树文,蔡崇法.干湿效应下崩岗区岩土抗剪强度衰减非线性分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(5):241.ZHANG Xiaoming,DING Shuwen,CAI Chongfa.Effects of drying and wetting on nonlinear decay of soil shear strength in slope disintegration erosion area[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(5):241.
[12]蒋芳市,黄炎和,林金石,等.坡度和雨强对花岗岩崩岗崩积体细沟侵蚀的影响[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):1.JIANG Fangshi,HUANG Yanhe,LIN Jinshi,et al.Effects of different rainfall intensities and slope gradients on rill erosion of colluvial deposits and granite Benggang[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(1):1.
[13]刘希林,张大林.崩岗地貌侵蚀过程三维立体监测研究:以广东五华县莲塘岗崩岗为例[J].水土保持学报,2015,29(1):26.LIU Xilin,ZHANG Dalin.Study onerosion process of collapsing hill and gully by three-dimensional monitoring:an example of Liantanggang in Wuhua County of Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,29(1):26.
[14]陈洋.基于遥感与GIS的流域崩岗敏感性分析[D].福州:福建师范大学,2010:41.CHEN Yang.Sensitivity analysis of river basin collapsed gully based on RS and GIS[D].Fuzhou:Fujian Normal University,2010:41.
[15]陈嘉林.福建省典型崩岗区潜在性崩岗风险评估与预测[D].福州:福建农林大学,2015:17.CHEN Jialing.Risk evaluation and simulation of the potential collapsing hills in Fujian typical collapsed area[D].Fuzhou:Fujian Agriculture And Forestry University,2015:17.
[16]李家存.基于RS和GIS的区域坡地重力侵蚀危险性评价研究[D].北京:中国科学院遥感应用研究所,2006:85.LI Jiacheng.A study on regional gravitational erosion hazard based on RS and GIS[D].Beijing:Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2006:85.
[17]程冬兵,张平仓.南方崩岗侵蚀风险评估构想[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(4):346.CHENG Dongbing,ZHANG Pingcang.Conception of risk assessment of collapse gully erosion in South China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(4):346.
[18]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001:17.WANG Jichuan,GU Zhigang.Logistic regression models methods and application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001:17.
[19]王文娟,邓荣鑫,张树文.东北典型黑土区沟蚀发生风险评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(12):2058.WANG Wenjuan,DENG Rongxin,ZHANG Shuwen.Preliminary research on risk evaluation of gully erosion in typical black soil area of Northeast China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(12):2058.
[20]张利超,王辉文,谢颂华.江西省水土流失现状与发展趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):356.ZHANG Lichao,WANG Huiwen,XIE Songhua.Current status and developing trend of soil and water loss in Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(1):356.
[21]巫丽芸,何东进,洪伟,等.自然灾害风险评估与灾害易损性研究进展[J].灾害学,2014,29(4):129.WU Liyun,HE Dongjin,HONG Wei,et al.Research advances and prospects of natural disaster risk assessment and vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(4):129.
[22]何超,李萌,李婷婷,等.多目标综合评价中四种确定权重方法的比较与分析[J].湖北大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(2):172.HE Chao,LI Meng,LI Tingting,et al.Comparison and analysis of the four methods of determining weights in multi-objective comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Hubei University(Natural Science),2016,38(2):172.
[2]曾昭璇,黄少敏.红层地貌与花岗岩地貌[M].北京:科学出版社,1980:139.ZENG Zhaoxuan,HUANG Shaoming.Red beds and granite landforms[M].Beijing:Science Press,1980:139.
[3]史德明.我国热带亚热带地区崩岗侵蚀的剖析[J].水土保持通报,1984,4(3):32.SHI Deming.Analysis of collapse gully erosion in tropical and subtropical regions of China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1984,4(3):32.
[4]张淑光,钟朝章.广东省崩岗形成机理与类型[J].水土保持通报,1990,10(3):8.ZHANG Shuguang,ZHONG Chaozhang.The machanism arid types of the hillock collapsing forming in Guangdong province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1990,10(3):8.
[5]丘世钧.红土坡地崩岗侵蚀过程与机理[J].水土保持通报,1994,14(1):31.QIU Shijun.The process and mechanism of red earth slope disintegration erosion[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1994,14(1):31.
[6]阮伏水.福建崩岗沟侵蚀机理探讨[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),1996,12(增刊):24.RUAN Fushui.Study onerosion mechanism of collapse gully in Fujian[J].Journal of Fujian Teachers University(Natural Science),1996,12(S1):24.
[7]吴志峰,李定强,丘世钧.华南水土流失区崩岗侵蚀地貌系统分析[J].水土保持通报,1999,19(5):24.WU Zhifeng,LI Dingqiang,QIU Shijun.Systematic analysis of slope disintegration erosion landform in South China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1999,19(5):24.
[8]陈志彪,朱鹤健,刘强,等.根溪河小流域的崩岗特征及其治理措施[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(5):83.CHEN Zhibiao,ZHU Hejian,LIU Qiang,et al.Slump gully characteristic of small watershed of Genxi River and its control measures[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(5):83.
[9]张大林,刘希林.崩岗侵蚀地貌的演变过程及阶段划分[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2011(6):23.ZHANG Dalin,LIU Xilin.Evolution and phases division of collapsed gully erosion landform[J].Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment,2011(6):23.
[10]牛德奎.华南红壤丘陵区崩岗发育的环境背景与侵蚀机理研究[D].南京:南京林业大学,2009:5.NIU Dekui.Research on the environmental factors and erosive mechanism of collapsing hill in South China[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Forestry University,2009:5.
[11]张晓明,丁树文,蔡崇法.干湿效应下崩岗区岩土抗剪强度衰减非线性分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(5):241.ZHANG Xiaoming,DING Shuwen,CAI Chongfa.Effects of drying and wetting on nonlinear decay of soil shear strength in slope disintegration erosion area[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(5):241.
[12]蒋芳市,黄炎和,林金石,等.坡度和雨强对花岗岩崩岗崩积体细沟侵蚀的影响[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):1.JIANG Fangshi,HUANG Yanhe,LIN Jinshi,et al.Effects of different rainfall intensities and slope gradients on rill erosion of colluvial deposits and granite Benggang[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(1):1.
[13]刘希林,张大林.崩岗地貌侵蚀过程三维立体监测研究:以广东五华县莲塘岗崩岗为例[J].水土保持学报,2015,29(1):26.LIU Xilin,ZHANG Dalin.Study onerosion process of collapsing hill and gully by three-dimensional monitoring:an example of Liantanggang in Wuhua County of Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,29(1):26.
[14]陈洋.基于遥感与GIS的流域崩岗敏感性分析[D].福州:福建师范大学,2010:41.CHEN Yang.Sensitivity analysis of river basin collapsed gully based on RS and GIS[D].Fuzhou:Fujian Normal University,2010:41.
[15]陈嘉林.福建省典型崩岗区潜在性崩岗风险评估与预测[D].福州:福建农林大学,2015:17.CHEN Jialing.Risk evaluation and simulation of the potential collapsing hills in Fujian typical collapsed area[D].Fuzhou:Fujian Agriculture And Forestry University,2015:17.
[16]李家存.基于RS和GIS的区域坡地重力侵蚀危险性评价研究[D].北京:中国科学院遥感应用研究所,2006:85.LI Jiacheng.A study on regional gravitational erosion hazard based on RS and GIS[D].Beijing:Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2006:85.
[17]程冬兵,张平仓.南方崩岗侵蚀风险评估构想[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(4):346.CHENG Dongbing,ZHANG Pingcang.Conception of risk assessment of collapse gully erosion in South China[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(4):346.
[18]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001:17.WANG Jichuan,GU Zhigang.Logistic regression models methods and application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001:17.
[19]王文娟,邓荣鑫,张树文.东北典型黑土区沟蚀发生风险评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(12):2058.WANG Wenjuan,DENG Rongxin,ZHANG Shuwen.Preliminary research on risk evaluation of gully erosion in typical black soil area of Northeast China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(12):2058.
[20]张利超,王辉文,谢颂华.江西省水土流失现状与发展趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):356.ZHANG Lichao,WANG Huiwen,XIE Songhua.Current status and developing trend of soil and water loss in Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(1):356.
[21]巫丽芸,何东进,洪伟,等.自然灾害风险评估与灾害易损性研究进展[J].灾害学,2014,29(4):129.WU Liyun,HE Dongjin,HONG Wei,et al.Research advances and prospects of natural disaster risk assessment and vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(4):129.
[22]何超,李萌,李婷婷,等.多目标综合评价中四种确定权重方法的比较与分析[J].湖北大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(2):172.HE Chao,LI Meng,LI Tingting,et al.Comparison and analysis of the four methods of determining weights in multi-objective comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Hubei University(Natural Science),2016,38(2):172.