“一带一路”倡议下中俄蒙区域经济合作研究——基于GTAP模型的实证分析
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摘要
根据2007-2016年度中俄蒙RCA指数,研究三国贸易的竞争性与互补性关系;运用GTAP模型模拟分析在不同关税与非关税壁垒水平的冲击下,三国区域经济合作对国民生产总值、福利效应、贸易水平等方面所带来的影响。结果表明:中俄蒙三国的出口贸易具有较强的互补性;阶段性关税削减并不能促进三国贸易创造效应的改善,而非关税壁垒的削减能够显著提升相关宏观经济指标;三国区域经济合作应在非关税壁垒改善的基础上,加强三国的次区域经济合作。
According to the RCA index of 2007-2016 year,studying the export trade of competitiveness and complementarities relations among China,Russia and Mongolia; we apply the GTAP model simulation and analysis of different level of tariff and non-tariff barriers impact to explore the impact of GDP and welfare effects,as well as the level of trade between China and Russia with three regional economic cooperation of the three countries. The results show that: first,the export trade among China,Russia and Mongolia has strong complementarities. Secondly,phased tariff cuts cannot improve the creation effect of the three countries' trade,and the macroeconomic indicators in three countries have been significantly improved under the reduction of non-tariff barriers. Therefore,the development of the three countries' regional economic cooperation should be based on the improvement of non-tariff barriers and the sub regional economic cooperation of the three countries is reasonable.
According to the RCA index of 2007-2016 year,studying the export trade of competitiveness and complementarities relations among China,Russia and Mongolia; we apply the GTAP model simulation and analysis of different level of tariff and non-tariff barriers impact to explore the impact of GDP and welfare effects,as well as the level of trade between China and Russia with three regional economic cooperation of the three countries. The results show that: first,the export trade among China,Russia and Mongolia has strong complementarities. Secondly,phased tariff cuts cannot improve the creation effect of the three countries' trade,and the macroeconomic indicators in three countries have been significantly improved under the reduction of non-tariff barriers. Therefore,the development of the three countries' regional economic cooperation should be based on the improvement of non-tariff barriers and the sub regional economic cooperation of the three countries is reasonable.
引文
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[3]王明昊.中俄蒙贸易互补性的实证分析[J].外国问题研究,2015,(1):37-43.
[4]杨文兰.中俄蒙边境三角区经贸合作方略[J].开放导报,2016,(2):55-59.
[5]郭连成,刘彦君,陈菁泉.中俄东部地区城市经济联系测度及促进策略[J].财经理论研究,2017,(12):104-109.
[6] Andrey S. Golobokov. Various Forms and Mechanisms of Chinese-Russian Cooperation in Theenergy Sphere and the Role of Non-governmental Structures[J]. Pacific Science Review B:Humanities and Social Sciences,2015,(1):45-48.
[7] B. Otgonsuren. Dec. Mongolia–China–Russia Economic Corridor Infrastructure Cooperation[R]. ERINA REPORT,2015,(127):3-6.
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[9]柴国君,魏亮.“一带一路”视阈下中蒙经济技术合作模式研究[J].财经理论研究,2018,(4):11-20.
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