基于结构方程模型的农产品供应链金融风险防范研究
|
摘要
农产品供应链金融对缓解涉农中小企业融资困境具有积极作用。在详细解析农产品供应链金融业务的运作特点基础上,归纳出了该业务的风险关键要素:资信风险、供应链运行风险、质押物风险、技术风险及法规风险。相较传统供应链金融业务风险,农产品供应链金融业务风险更为复杂,致使一般统计方法无法满足分析需要。有鉴于此,本文采用结构方程模型的分析思路,结合克朗巴哈系数法和德尔菲法,对农产品供应链金融风险进行评价,得出相关评价结论。根据评价结果,提出了风险防范的对策建议,以期为农产品供应链金融风险评价、预警及应急管理提供决策借鉴。
Agricultural product supply chain finance is application and expansion of supply chain finance,and has an important significance to solve SMEs' or the farmers' financing difficulties in a supply chain.However,slow deterioration of agricultural products result in more uncertainty in the business,so it is necessary to explore a risk prevention of agricultural product supply chain finance. Based on analysis on risk types of agricultural product supply chain finance,this paper analyzes risk prevention on agricultural product supply chain finance applying structural equation modeling,and constructs a model of risk prevention,and get some conclusions,which provide advice for risk assessment,precautions and decision making in agricultural product supply chain finance.
Agricultural product supply chain finance is application and expansion of supply chain finance,and has an important significance to solve SMEs' or the farmers' financing difficulties in a supply chain.However,slow deterioration of agricultural products result in more uncertainty in the business,so it is necessary to explore a risk prevention of agricultural product supply chain finance. Based on analysis on risk types of agricultural product supply chain finance,this paper analyzes risk prevention on agricultural product supply chain finance applying structural equation modeling,and constructs a model of risk prevention,and get some conclusions,which provide advice for risk assessment,precautions and decision making in agricultural product supply chain finance.
引文
[1]David B. Marija B. Measuring the supply chain risk and vulnerability in frequency space[J]. Jnternational Journal of Production Economics,2007,108(1):291-301.
[2]Ann M. Future manufacture environment[J]. Solid State Technology,2011,61(1):21-33.
[3]庞燕,易君丽.农产品物流金融发展的风险防范研究[J].物流技术,2012,31(8):7-10.
[4]李蜀湘,颜浩龙.基于违约风险的农产品供应链金融模式研究[J].物流技术,2014,33(5):365-367.
[5]李涵,王兆旭,邹磊.农产品订单融资的可行路径研究:理论分析与具体实践[J].征信,2014(4):67-71.
[6]曾妮妮,永春芳,辛冲冲.农产品供应链金融风险评价体系研究[J].农业展望,2015(12):15-19.
[7]王筱萍,王文利.农村中小企业集群供应链融资:内生风险治理机制与效应[J].农业经济问题,2015(10):34-42.
[8]李炎炎.农产品供应链金融及其风险管理研究[J].商业时代,2013(17):84-85.
[9]李毅学.物流与供应链金融创新-存货质押融资风险管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
(1)重庆市东北区域包括11个区县,是重庆生态涵养区,该区域地势优越,气候适宜、人口较多,使得农业较为发达,为农产品质押融资业务开展提供了较好的条件,具有一定的代表性。此外农产品供应链金融包括许多运作模式,如仓单质押、保兑仓、订单质押、融通仓、存货质押等,本文风险分析侧重对存货质押运作模式,存货是资金的另一种存放形式,是需要物流、信息流通力配合的典型,也是供应链金融的核心模式。
[2]Ann M. Future manufacture environment[J]. Solid State Technology,2011,61(1):21-33.
[3]庞燕,易君丽.农产品物流金融发展的风险防范研究[J].物流技术,2012,31(8):7-10.
[4]李蜀湘,颜浩龙.基于违约风险的农产品供应链金融模式研究[J].物流技术,2014,33(5):365-367.
[5]李涵,王兆旭,邹磊.农产品订单融资的可行路径研究:理论分析与具体实践[J].征信,2014(4):67-71.
[6]曾妮妮,永春芳,辛冲冲.农产品供应链金融风险评价体系研究[J].农业展望,2015(12):15-19.
[7]王筱萍,王文利.农村中小企业集群供应链融资:内生风险治理机制与效应[J].农业经济问题,2015(10):34-42.
[8]李炎炎.农产品供应链金融及其风险管理研究[J].商业时代,2013(17):84-85.
[9]李毅学.物流与供应链金融创新-存货质押融资风险管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
(1)重庆市东北区域包括11个区县,是重庆生态涵养区,该区域地势优越,气候适宜、人口较多,使得农业较为发达,为农产品质押融资业务开展提供了较好的条件,具有一定的代表性。此外农产品供应链金融包括许多运作模式,如仓单质押、保兑仓、订单质押、融通仓、存货质押等,本文风险分析侧重对存货质押运作模式,存货是资金的另一种存放形式,是需要物流、信息流通力配合的典型,也是供应链金融的核心模式。