厦门市城市生活垃圾的系统动力学预测管控体系
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摘要
城市生活垃圾的快速增长产生了一系列的健康和环境问题,为准确预测城市生活垃圾产生量,以此作为生活垃圾管理的决策者分析和制定管理方案的依据.运用系统动力学(SD)方法,以厦门市为例,利用VENSIM软件绘制城市生活垃圾的因果回路图(Causal Loop Diagram),建立系统动力学的存量流量模型(Stock and Flow Model),最后进行仿真模拟及量化分析.预测结果得出2030年厦门市的城市生活垃圾将达到304×10~4 t,通过垃圾分类回收和适当提高垃圾收费等措施可以减少城市生活垃圾的产生.
A series of health and environmental problems have emerged along with the rapid growth of municipal solid waste(MSW) generation. A precise forecasting on the mount of MSW generation could assist as the foundation for decision making on effective and efficient MSW management. This study aims to develop a system dynamics model for MSW forecasting and controlling. Taking one of the special economic zones in China——the Xiamen City as an empirical case, the simulation and quantitative analysis were carried out using the system dynamics(SD) methodology. In specific, the causal loop diagram on MSW generation was plotted in the VENSIM interface, and the stock-and-flow SD model was established through model structure analysis. The simulation results show that the MSW generation amount will reach 3040 thousand tonnes by 2030 in Xiamen City, and this amount could be effectively reduced by conducting those measures such as sorting and recycling garbage and increasing the waste charges.
A series of health and environmental problems have emerged along with the rapid growth of municipal solid waste(MSW) generation. A precise forecasting on the mount of MSW generation could assist as the foundation for decision making on effective and efficient MSW management. This study aims to develop a system dynamics model for MSW forecasting and controlling. Taking one of the special economic zones in China——the Xiamen City as an empirical case, the simulation and quantitative analysis were carried out using the system dynamics(SD) methodology. In specific, the causal loop diagram on MSW generation was plotted in the VENSIM interface, and the stock-and-flow SD model was established through model structure analysis. The simulation results show that the MSW generation amount will reach 3040 thousand tonnes by 2030 in Xiamen City, and this amount could be effectively reduced by conducting those measures such as sorting and recycling garbage and increasing the waste charges.
引文
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Rome A.2015.The Limits to Growth:A Report for the Club of Rome′s Project on the Predicament of Mankind[J].Nature,527(7579):443-445
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王其藩.2009.系统动力学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社
徐礼来,闫祯,崔胜辉.2013.城市生活垃圾产量影响因素的路径分析——以厦门市为例[J].环境科学学报,33(4):1180-1185
张邦科,邓胜梁,陶建平.2011.持久收入假说与我国城镇居民消费——基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].财经科学,(5):56-62
张子睿,刘哲,戴潞泓,等.2018.2017年厦门金砖会晤期间气象因素与管控措施对空气质量的影响[J].环境科学学报,38(11):1-12
中国统计局.2016.中国统计年鉴[EB/OL].2018-10-30.http:/ /www.stats.gov.cn/ tjsj/ ndsj/
钟永光.2009.系统动力学[M].北京:科学出版社
Antmann E D,Shi X,Celik N,et al.2013.Continuous-discrete simulation-based decision making framework for solid waste management and recycling programs[J].Computers & Industrial Engineering,65(3):438-454
Beigl P,Lebersorger S,Salhofer S.2008.Modelling municipal solid waste generation:A review[J].Waste Management,28(1):200-214
Chang N,Lin Y T.1997.An analysis of recycling impacts on solid waste generation by time series intervention modeling[J].Resources,Conservation & Recycling,19(3):165-186
Costanza R.2006.Limits to growth:The 30-year update[J].Ecological Economics,59(3):397-399
蔡林.2006.北京市垃圾问题的系统动力学模拟分析[J].北京社会科学,(3):56-61
陈倩倩,杨栋,黄颖,等.2018.宁波市不同区分类垃圾组成与理化特性研究[J].环境科学学报,38(3):1064-1070
丁湘蓉,霍维周,童金义,等.2007.生活垃圾产量预测实例研究[J].环境与可持续发展,(6):39-42
杜吴鹏,高庆先,张恩琛,等.2006.中国城市生活垃圾处理及趋势分析[J].环境科学研究,19(6):115-120
Estay-Ossandon C,Mena-Nieto A.2018.Modelling the driving forces of the municipal solid waste generation in touristic islands.A case study of the Balearic Islands (2000—2030)[J].Waste Management,75:70-81
Hong J,Chen Y,Wang M,et al.2017.Intensification of municipal solid waste disposal in China[J].Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews,69:168-176
何德文,金艳,柴立元,等.2005.国内大中城市生活垃圾产生量与成分的影响因素分析[J].环境卫生工程,(4):7-10
Inghels D,Dullaert W.2011.An analysis of household waste management policy using system dynamics modelling[J].Waste Management Research,29(4):351-370
Karavezyris V,Timpe K,Marzi R.2002.Application of system dynamics and fuzzy logic to forecasting of municipal solid waste[J].Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,60(3):149-158
Liu G,Yu J.2007.Gray correlation analysis and prediction models of living refuse generation in Shanghai city[J].Waste Management,27(3):345-351
刘欣,董飞.2014.我国城市固体废弃物污染状况及处理技术[J].科技致富向导,(6):45-45
鲁宝智.2017.《城市生活垃圾产量计算及预测方法》修订编制研究[J].环境卫生工程,25(3):19-21
罗瑾,戴智彬.2016.厦门市常住劳动人口发展趋势分析[J].科技经济导刊,(26):220-220
Nabavi-Pelesaraei A,Bayat R,Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha H,et al.2017.Modeling of energy consumption and environmental life cycle assessment for incineration and landfill systems of municipal solid waste management:A case study in Tehran Metropolis of Iran[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,148:427-440
Noori R,Abdoli M A,Farokhnia A,et al.2009.RETRACTED:Results uncertainty of solid waste generation forecasting by hybrid of wavelet transform-ANFIS and wavelet transform-neural network (Retracted article.See vol.63,pg.461,2016)[J].Expert Systems With Applications,36(6):9991-9999
Noori R,Karbassi A R,Sabahi M S.2010.Evaluation of PCA and Gamma test techniques on ANN operation for weekly solid waste prediction[J].Journal of Environmental Management,91(3):767-771
Prades M,Gallardo A,Victoria Ibanez M.2015.Factors determining waste generation in Spanish towns and cities[J].Environmental Monitoring And Assessment,187(1):4098-4098
Rimaityte I,Ruzgas T,Denafas G,et al.2012.Application and evaluation of forecasting methods for municipal solid waste generation in an eastern-European city[J].Waste Management & Research,30(1):89-98
Rome A.2015.The Limits to Growth:A Report for the Club of Rome′s Project on the Predicament of Mankind[J].Nature,527(7579):443-445
Sterman J.2000.Business Dynamics[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,Inc.
Williams I D.2014.The importance of education to waste (resource) management[J].Waste Management,34(11):1909-1910
王其藩.2009.系统动力学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社
徐礼来,闫祯,崔胜辉.2013.城市生活垃圾产量影响因素的路径分析——以厦门市为例[J].环境科学学报,33(4):1180-1185
张邦科,邓胜梁,陶建平.2011.持久收入假说与我国城镇居民消费——基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].财经科学,(5):56-62
张子睿,刘哲,戴潞泓,等.2018.2017年厦门金砖会晤期间气象因素与管控措施对空气质量的影响[J].环境科学学报,38(11):1-12
中国统计局.2016.中国统计年鉴[EB/OL].2018-10-30.http:/ /www.stats.gov.cn/ tjsj/ ndsj/
钟永光.2009.系统动力学[M].北京:科学出版社