宁波市空气质量与环境变量的偏相关性分析
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摘要
对宁波市2010-2017年的PM2.5开展月度指数分析和相关性分析。结果显示,宁波市12月份的PM2.5月度指数最高,8月份最低,PM2.5与重要的二次颗粒物O3之间存在显著的负相关(p<0.05)。针对与PM2.5相关的气象条件,展开定性和定量分析,利用岭回归建立PM2.5与风向、风速等气象条件的偏回归模型,西南偏南风(ESS)对宁波市PM2.5浓度升高有促进作用,东北风(EN)对宁波市PM2.5浓度提升最大(p<=0.05)。
This paper analyzes the monthly index and correlation analysis of PM2.5 in Ningbo City from 2010 to 2017. The results showed that the monthly index of PM2.5 in Ningbo was the highest in December and the lowest in August. There was a significant negative correlation between PM2.5 and important secondary particulate matter O3(p < 0.05). According to the meteorological conditions related to PM2.5, qualitative and quantitative analysis was carried out, and the partial regression model of PM2.5 and wind direction, wind speed and other meteorological conditions was established by using ridge regression. The southwest southerly wind(ESS) increased the concentration of PM2.5 in Ningbo. Highly promoted, northeast wind(EN) increased the maximum concentration of PM2.5 in Ningbo(p < =0.05).
This paper analyzes the monthly index and correlation analysis of PM2.5 in Ningbo City from 2010 to 2017. The results showed that the monthly index of PM2.5 in Ningbo was the highest in December and the lowest in August. There was a significant negative correlation between PM2.5 and important secondary particulate matter O3(p < 0.05). According to the meteorological conditions related to PM2.5, qualitative and quantitative analysis was carried out, and the partial regression model of PM2.5 and wind direction, wind speed and other meteorological conditions was established by using ridge regression. The southwest southerly wind(ESS) increased the concentration of PM2.5 in Ningbo. Highly promoted, northeast wind(EN) increased the maximum concentration of PM2.5 in Ningbo(p < =0.05).
引文
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2 刘锋,银利,张星.部分线性模型在空气质量指数细颗粒物PM2.5中的分析应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(9):130-134.
3 许丹丹,屈晓萍,汪伟峰,等.宁波PM10中有机碳和元素碳的季节变化及来源分析[J].中国环境监测,2014,(1):49-52.
4 肖致美,毕晓辉,冯银厂,等.宁波市环境空气中PM10和PM2.5来源解析[J].环境科学研究,2012,(5):549-555.
5 陆星家,刘林林,陈志荣,等.气象特征对空气质量的影响和可视化研究[J].实验室研究与探索,2016,35(11):22-25.
6 黄虹,曾宝强,曹军骥,等.广州大学城大气PM2.5量浓度与影响因素[J].环境科学与技术,2009,32(5):103-106.
7 杜博涵,黄晓锋,何凌燕,等.宁波市PM2.5中碳组分的时空分布特征和二次有机碳估算[J].环境科学,2015,(9):3128-3134.
8 柴微涛,宋述军,宋学鸿.成都市城区空气污染指数的时间序列分析[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,34(4):485-488.