广西北部湾经济区旅游可持续发展评价
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摘要
基于专家打分法与AHP法、多目标线性规划法获得指标体系的权重和评分值。构造了相对最大差异尺度和均衡度公式,界定了最优均衡度综合指标及其4种均衡状态、最优和非最优均衡趋向指标以及单项指标筛选标准,从而系统地改进了旅游可持续发展的评价分析方法;分析了北部湾经济区旅游可持续发展的地区差异以及影响因素,研究发现:1)北部湾经济区旅游地可持续发展能力整体不高且地区发展不平衡,南宁处于基本可持续发展阶段,其他地级市处于准备阶段;地级市之间、地区内部各要素之间的可持续发展优势差异明显。2)旅游可持续发展环境不足以及旅游业趋向过于均衡发展,促使当前与未来区域旅游发展协调处于初步可持续发展阶段,但是地区之间旅游发展环境差异小,区域旅游可持续发展潜力大。3)旅游发展规划作用明显,良好的旅游业发展现状是区域旅游发展趋向于可持续发展阶段的基础。最后从基础设施、旅游社会经济地位、旅游-经济-环境协调发展、城市旅游合作等方面提出了相应建议。
With the index weight and comprehensive evaluation scores of Tourism Sustainable Development( TSD) obtained through the methods of expert scoring,AHP and multi-objective planning,this study creates two Biggest Difference Scales formulas and a Balanced Degree formula,and defines the Optimal Balanced Degree of Comprehensive Index with its four kinds of states,the indexes of Optimal or Non-optimal Balanced Tendencies and a filter criterion in single index layer. We also analyze the regional differences with its influence factors. The results show that TSD level of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,as a whole,is not high,and its unbalance is obvious. Nanning is in the basic stage of TSD,other cities are in the preparatory stage. The advantages of developing elements of cities are significantly different. It is found that,because of insufficient developing environments,the coordination of current and future regional TSD is in the preliminary stage. TSD has small differences everregional scale,if with good situation of tourism development,regional tourism will move into sustainable development. Finally,we put forward some suggestions regarding infrastructure construction,social and economic status,coordinated developments among tourism,economy,environment and urban tourism cooperation.
With the index weight and comprehensive evaluation scores of Tourism Sustainable Development( TSD) obtained through the methods of expert scoring,AHP and multi-objective planning,this study creates two Biggest Difference Scales formulas and a Balanced Degree formula,and defines the Optimal Balanced Degree of Comprehensive Index with its four kinds of states,the indexes of Optimal or Non-optimal Balanced Tendencies and a filter criterion in single index layer. We also analyze the regional differences with its influence factors. The results show that TSD level of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,as a whole,is not high,and its unbalance is obvious. Nanning is in the basic stage of TSD,other cities are in the preparatory stage. The advantages of developing elements of cities are significantly different. It is found that,because of insufficient developing environments,the coordination of current and future regional TSD is in the preliminary stage. TSD has small differences everregional scale,if with good situation of tourism development,regional tourism will move into sustainable development. Finally,we put forward some suggestions regarding infrastructure construction,social and economic status,coordinated developments among tourism,economy,environment and urban tourism cooperation.
引文
[1]Zhang Jie-kuan,Ji Mei,Zhu Pu-xuan.Latest development of study on sustainable tourism in foreign countries[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(4):139-146.[章杰宽,姬梅,朱普选.国外旅游可持续发展研究进展述评[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013,23(4):139-146.]
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[5]Chen Wen-Jie,Yang Guo-liang,Lin Lian-xin.Research on the travel sustainable development index system:Take Beibu Bay of Guangxi as an example[J].Economic Management,2011(6):117-124.[陈文捷,阳国亮,凌连新.旅游可持续发展指标体系研究——以广西北部湾为例[J].经济管理,2011(6):117-124.]
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[7]Tang Cheng-cai,Zhong Lin-sheng,Cheng Sheng-kui.A review on sustainable development for tourist destination[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):984-992.[唐承财,钟林生,成升魁.旅游地可持续发展研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):984-992.]
[8]Wan You-qing.Evaluation index and method of sustainable development of tourism[J].Statistics and Decision Making,2006(3):10-12.[万幼清.旅游可持续发展评价指标与方法[J].统计与决策,2006(3):10-12.]
[9]Zhen Yi,Kang Wen-xing.Study on comparing two assessment models of tourism sustainable development[J].Ecological Economy,2008(10):101-103.[甄翌,康文星.两种旅游可持续发展评价方法比较研究[J].生态经济,2008(10):101-103.]
[10]Lu Da-dao,Fan Jie.The rise and effects of regional sustainable development studies in China[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2012,27(3):290-300.[陆大道,樊杰.区域可持续发展研究的兴起与作用[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,27(3):290-300.]
[11]Xiong Yong-zhu,Xia Bin,Zhang Mei-ying.Comprehensive coordination degree assessment model of regional sustainable development:A case study of the coastal cities of Guangdong[J].Tropical Geography,2007,27(6):511-515,520.[熊永柱,夏斌,张美英.区域可持续发展的一种评价模型:综合协调度——以广东省沿海城市为例[J].热带地理,2007,27(6):511-515,520.]
[12]Liu Xiao-hui,Chen Zhong-nuan,Liu Miao-rong,et al.Comprehensive evaluation of sustainable development in Hong Kong-Macao-Pearl River Delta[J].Tropical Geography,2008,28(3):253-258.[刘晓辉,陈忠暖,刘妙容,等.港澳珠三角可持续发展的综合评价研究[J].热带地理,2008,28(3):253-258.]
[13]Xu Fei-fei,Yang Da-yuan,Huang Zhen-fang,et al.Evaluating ecotourism in wetland areas based on entropy technology and AHP:A case study on Red Crowned Crane Wetland Nature Reserve in Yancheng,Jiangsu[J].Economic Geography,2005,25(5):707-711.[徐菲菲,杨达源,黄震方,等.基于层次熵分析法的湿地生态旅游评价研究——以江苏盐城丹顶鹤湿地自然保护区为例[J].经济地理,2005,25(5):707-711.]
[14]Zhang Hui,Yang Yun-xian.Study on eco-tourism sustainable development countermeasures based on evaluation of resources in Lushan[J].Ecological Economy,2010(7):99-101.[张辉,杨云仙.基于资源评价的庐山生态旅游可持续发展对策研究[J].生态经济,2010(7):99-101.]
[15]Liu Yong,Han Tai-fan,Qu Xin-pu,et al.Assessment of tourism resource and sustainable countermeasures based on AHP method in Mianshan resort[J].Economic Geography,2006,26(2):346-348.[刘勇,韩泰凡,曲新谱,等.基于层次分析法的绵山旅游资源评价与可持续发展对策[J].经济地理,2006,26(2):346-348.]
[16]Gan Yong-ping.Analysis of the regional differences and factors of inbound tourism development in Guangxi Autonomous Region[J].Commercial Research,2010(11):149-154.[甘永萍.广西入境旅游发展的区域差异及影响因素分析[J].商业研究,2010(11):149-154.]
[17]Mao Jiang-xing,Wei Na.Research to Promote the Urban Development,Industrial Transformation and Upgrading of Nanning City Under the Background of High Speed Railway[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2014.[毛蒋兴,韦娜.高速铁路背景下促进南宁城市发展与产业转型升级研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2014.]
[18]Liu Si-wei,Wang Zhao-feng.Empirical analysis on the relationship between tourism economic growth and tourism employment:Taking the example for the bordering area of Hunan,Hubei,Chongqing and Guizhou[J].Industrial Economics Research,2008(3):64-68.[柳思维,王兆峰.旅游经济增长与旅游就业关系研究——以湘鄂渝黔边区为例[J].产业经济研究,2008(3):64-68.]
[19]Zhang Yuan,Liu Shi-jing,Liu Liang.Can we attribute increasing criminal rate to enlarging urban-rural inequality in China?[J].Economic Research Journal,2011(2):59-72.[章元,刘时菁,刘亮.城乡收入差距、民工失业与中国犯罪率的上升[J].经济研究,2011(2):59-72.]
[20]Chen Lie,Shen Jing.The strategy and measures for cooperative development of the Beibu Bay travel zone[J].Tropical Geography,2002,22(4):345-349.[陈烈,沈静.环北部湾旅游圈协同发展的战略目标与对策[J].热带地理,2002,22(4):345-349.]
[2]Zhang Jie-kuan.Dynamic simulation of regional sustainable tourism development system[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2011,31(11):2101-2107.[章杰宽.区域旅游可持续发展系统的动态仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(11):2101-2107.]
[3]Wu Jing.Construction and evaluation to the index system of sustainable development of tourism:An empirical investigation of Qingdao as an example[J].Search in Economy,2013(10):64-70.[吴净.旅游可持续发展的指标体系构建及其评价——以青岛为例的实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2013(10):64-70.]
[4]Wang Liang-jian.On the indicator system of sustainable development of tourism and the evaluating method[J].Tourism Tribune,2001,16(1):67-70.[王良健.旅游可持续发展评价指标体系及评价方法研究[J].旅游学刊,2001,16(1):67-70.]
[5]Chen Wen-Jie,Yang Guo-liang,Lin Lian-xin.Research on the travel sustainable development index system:Take Beibu Bay of Guangxi as an example[J].Economic Management,2011(6):117-124.[陈文捷,阳国亮,凌连新.旅游可持续发展指标体系研究——以广西北部湾为例[J].经济管理,2011(6):117-124.]
[6]Zeng Zhen-xiang,Fu Hui-min,Wang Yun-feng.Research on system analysis of tourism sustainable development[J].Journal of Hebei University of Technology,2000,29(3):50-54.[曾珍香,傅惠敏,王云峰.旅游可持续发展的系统分析[J].河北工业大学学报,2000,29(3):50-54.]
[7]Tang Cheng-cai,Zhong Lin-sheng,Cheng Sheng-kui.A review on sustainable development for tourist destination[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):984-992.[唐承财,钟林生,成升魁.旅游地可持续发展研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):984-992.]
[8]Wan You-qing.Evaluation index and method of sustainable development of tourism[J].Statistics and Decision Making,2006(3):10-12.[万幼清.旅游可持续发展评价指标与方法[J].统计与决策,2006(3):10-12.]
[9]Zhen Yi,Kang Wen-xing.Study on comparing two assessment models of tourism sustainable development[J].Ecological Economy,2008(10):101-103.[甄翌,康文星.两种旅游可持续发展评价方法比较研究[J].生态经济,2008(10):101-103.]
[10]Lu Da-dao,Fan Jie.The rise and effects of regional sustainable development studies in China[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2012,27(3):290-300.[陆大道,樊杰.区域可持续发展研究的兴起与作用[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,27(3):290-300.]
[11]Xiong Yong-zhu,Xia Bin,Zhang Mei-ying.Comprehensive coordination degree assessment model of regional sustainable development:A case study of the coastal cities of Guangdong[J].Tropical Geography,2007,27(6):511-515,520.[熊永柱,夏斌,张美英.区域可持续发展的一种评价模型:综合协调度——以广东省沿海城市为例[J].热带地理,2007,27(6):511-515,520.]
[12]Liu Xiao-hui,Chen Zhong-nuan,Liu Miao-rong,et al.Comprehensive evaluation of sustainable development in Hong Kong-Macao-Pearl River Delta[J].Tropical Geography,2008,28(3):253-258.[刘晓辉,陈忠暖,刘妙容,等.港澳珠三角可持续发展的综合评价研究[J].热带地理,2008,28(3):253-258.]
[13]Xu Fei-fei,Yang Da-yuan,Huang Zhen-fang,et al.Evaluating ecotourism in wetland areas based on entropy technology and AHP:A case study on Red Crowned Crane Wetland Nature Reserve in Yancheng,Jiangsu[J].Economic Geography,2005,25(5):707-711.[徐菲菲,杨达源,黄震方,等.基于层次熵分析法的湿地生态旅游评价研究——以江苏盐城丹顶鹤湿地自然保护区为例[J].经济地理,2005,25(5):707-711.]
[14]Zhang Hui,Yang Yun-xian.Study on eco-tourism sustainable development countermeasures based on evaluation of resources in Lushan[J].Ecological Economy,2010(7):99-101.[张辉,杨云仙.基于资源评价的庐山生态旅游可持续发展对策研究[J].生态经济,2010(7):99-101.]
[15]Liu Yong,Han Tai-fan,Qu Xin-pu,et al.Assessment of tourism resource and sustainable countermeasures based on AHP method in Mianshan resort[J].Economic Geography,2006,26(2):346-348.[刘勇,韩泰凡,曲新谱,等.基于层次分析法的绵山旅游资源评价与可持续发展对策[J].经济地理,2006,26(2):346-348.]
[16]Gan Yong-ping.Analysis of the regional differences and factors of inbound tourism development in Guangxi Autonomous Region[J].Commercial Research,2010(11):149-154.[甘永萍.广西入境旅游发展的区域差异及影响因素分析[J].商业研究,2010(11):149-154.]
[17]Mao Jiang-xing,Wei Na.Research to Promote the Urban Development,Industrial Transformation and Upgrading of Nanning City Under the Background of High Speed Railway[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2014.[毛蒋兴,韦娜.高速铁路背景下促进南宁城市发展与产业转型升级研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2014.]
[18]Liu Si-wei,Wang Zhao-feng.Empirical analysis on the relationship between tourism economic growth and tourism employment:Taking the example for the bordering area of Hunan,Hubei,Chongqing and Guizhou[J].Industrial Economics Research,2008(3):64-68.[柳思维,王兆峰.旅游经济增长与旅游就业关系研究——以湘鄂渝黔边区为例[J].产业经济研究,2008(3):64-68.]
[19]Zhang Yuan,Liu Shi-jing,Liu Liang.Can we attribute increasing criminal rate to enlarging urban-rural inequality in China?[J].Economic Research Journal,2011(2):59-72.[章元,刘时菁,刘亮.城乡收入差距、民工失业与中国犯罪率的上升[J].经济研究,2011(2):59-72.]
[20]Chen Lie,Shen Jing.The strategy and measures for cooperative development of the Beibu Bay travel zone[J].Tropical Geography,2002,22(4):345-349.[陈烈,沈静.环北部湾旅游圈协同发展的战略目标与对策[J].热带地理,2002,22(4):345-349.]