中美财政赤字对经常项目影响的比较研究
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摘要
基于中美两国1982—2014年宏观经济数据的描述性统计分析、协整检验、误差修正模型和广义脉冲响应等方法分析中美财政赤字对经常项目影响的存在性差异和差异背后不同的传导机制。研究结果表明,美国财政赤字通过利率汇率传导机制对经常项目收支产生负向影响,而中国的财政赤字在凯恩斯乘数的作用下通过储蓄投资缺口传导机制对经常项目产生正向影响。在中国金融市场化改革逐步推进、人民币国际化进程加快的背景下,中国应严格控制好财政赤字规模,合理安排金融市场化改革次序,警惕利率、汇率市场化引起类似美国的"双赤字"现象,防范国内外经济失衡的负面影响。
Based on descriptive statistic analysis,cointegration test,error correction model and the generalized impulse response analysis of macroeconomic data between the two countries in 1982—2014,the different impacts of fiscal deficit on the current account of China and the United States and different transmission mechanisms between the two countries are investigated.Research shows that the United States' fiscal deficit has a negative impact on the current account through interest rate and exchange rate transmission mechanism while China's fiscal deficit has a positive impact on the current account under the action of Keynesian multiplier through saving-investment gap transmission mechanism.Under the background of gradual marketization of China's financial reform and speeding up of RMB internationalization process,China should control the size of fiscal deficit strictly,arrange the financial marketization reform order reasonably and be alert to the similar phenomenon of "twin deficits"of the United States caused by marketization of interest rate and exchange rate to prevent the negative impact of domestic and international economic imbalances.
Based on descriptive statistic analysis,cointegration test,error correction model and the generalized impulse response analysis of macroeconomic data between the two countries in 1982—2014,the different impacts of fiscal deficit on the current account of China and the United States and different transmission mechanisms between the two countries are investigated.Research shows that the United States' fiscal deficit has a negative impact on the current account through interest rate and exchange rate transmission mechanism while China's fiscal deficit has a positive impact on the current account under the action of Keynesian multiplier through saving-investment gap transmission mechanism.Under the background of gradual marketization of China's financial reform and speeding up of RMB internationalization process,China should control the size of fiscal deficit strictly,arrange the financial marketization reform order reasonably and be alert to the similar phenomenon of "twin deficits"of the United States caused by marketization of interest rate and exchange rate to prevent the negative impact of domestic and international economic imbalances.
引文
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[10]ENDEGNANEW Y,AMO-YARTEY C,TURNER-JONES T.Fiscal policy and the current account:are microstates different[J].Applied Economics,2013,45(29):4137-4151.
[11]甘小芳,许少强.中国储投缺口结构对经常项目顺差的影响[J].世界经济研究,2011(1):28-32.
[12]魏勇强.中美储蓄率比较研究:兼评我国总储蓄率偏高之说[J].经济体制改革,2012(5):123-127.
[13]张斌.论中国金融市场化改革的新浪潮[J].中国市场,2012(29):25-29.
[14]许可,方兆本.人民币实际有效汇率和美元指数对中国进出口贸易的影响[J].中国科学技术大学学报,2012(3):185-190.
[15]黄玲.资本管制是防范金融危机的有效手段吗[J].经济学(季刊),2011(2):457-476.
[2]齐红倩,耿鹏.财政赤字、经常账户与政府债务研究:李嘉图等价视角的国际经验分析[J].世界经济研究,2012(12):46-51.
[3]JOHN D A.Twin deficits during the 1980s:An empirical investigation[J].Journal of macroeconomics,1991,12(1):81-96.
[4]KIM S.Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,97(2):436-447.
[5]刘奕佚.中国财政赤字的经常项目效应研究:基于经常项目跨期均衡分析框架[D].上海:复旦大学博士学位论文,2014:61-88.
[6]ERDERS W,LEE B,Current account and budget deficits:twins or distant cousins[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1990,72(3):373-381.
[7]张永伶.我国财政赤字与经常项目余额的实证分析[D].北京:财政部财政科学研究所硕士学位论文,2014:34-46.
[8]TANG T C.Fiscal deficit,trade deficit,and financial account deficit:Triple deficits hypothesis with the US experience[J].Monash University Department of Economics,Discussion Paper,2014,6(1):1-13.
[9]刘少英.美元汇率对美国进出口商品价格传递率的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2012(8):22-27.
[10]ENDEGNANEW Y,AMO-YARTEY C,TURNER-JONES T.Fiscal policy and the current account:are microstates different[J].Applied Economics,2013,45(29):4137-4151.
[11]甘小芳,许少强.中国储投缺口结构对经常项目顺差的影响[J].世界经济研究,2011(1):28-32.
[12]魏勇强.中美储蓄率比较研究:兼评我国总储蓄率偏高之说[J].经济体制改革,2012(5):123-127.
[13]张斌.论中国金融市场化改革的新浪潮[J].中国市场,2012(29):25-29.
[14]许可,方兆本.人民币实际有效汇率和美元指数对中国进出口贸易的影响[J].中国科学技术大学学报,2012(3):185-190.
[15]黄玲.资本管制是防范金融危机的有效手段吗[J].经济学(季刊),2011(2):457-476.